Ukraine 4

[kevindavis007]

https://twitter.com/CyrusShares/status/1664372854442405888

[kevindavis007]

Call for Putin to be replaced... on state TV: Extraordinary criticism is levelled at Vladimir on Russian channel for the first time since Ukraine invasion

Boris Nadezhdin said Russian must choose a replacement for Putin in elections

By RACHAEL BUNYAN
1 June 2023

A Russian politician has launched an extraordinary attack on Vladimir Putin, calling for the despot to be ousted from office and replaced during an appearance on state TV. 

Opposition politician Boris Nadezhdin, who has criticised Russia's invasion of Ukraine, said on Russia's NTV channel that Russians must choose a different leader in the country's 2024 elections.

'We need to choose somebody else, and not Putin,' outspoken Nadezhdin said. 'Everything will be good then.'

*  *  *

Source:  https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12148661/Call-Putin-replaced-state-TV-Extraordinary-criticism-levelled-Vladimir.html

He better stay away from windows.

[kevindavis007]

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1664353891994181632

[kevindavis007]

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1664352390529654784

[sneakypete]

My worry would involve mobilization by the Chinese, spooled up Russian nuclear forces, and the Norks or Iranians launching first. That could be a real hairball before the ordnance stops flying, and there are plenty of places the whole shooting match could go sideways off the rails.
If the Chinese figure out a way to orchestrate something like that, look out.

@Smokin Joe

I have been predicting for a while that the Chinese are waiting for Putin to be in SERIOUS trouble,and then to either just go ahead and invade eastern Russia to go after all the oil,coal,natural gas,and the other assets there because Russia will by then be too weak to fight  back.

Either that,or agree to come to Russia's aid military in exchange for it,but I really  don't see that happening. Why  would they risk that,when they can just pretty much walk in and take it?

This,of course,would all change if Putin were to be kicked  out of office and replaced by someone not insane.

I am ASSUMING his replacement would be a rational or semi-rational man who would pull the Soviet troops  back to Russia and try to get their economy going again. This would also free up  what remains of the Red Army  to go after any Chinese invaders,and THIS  time the troops would be fighting to preserve "Holy Mother Russia from the heathen invaders",and they would fight with  MUCH more vigor.

The whole "Holy Mother Russia" thing might sound like BS to most of you,but trust me,that is NOT the way most  Russians see Russia.

[kevindavis007]

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1664399539510431746

[Maj. Bill Martin]

@Smokin Joe

I have been predicting for a while that the Chinese are waiting for Putin to be in SERIOUS trouble,and then to either just go ahead and invade eastern Russia to go after all the oil,coal,natural gas,and the other assets there because Russia will by then be too weak to fight  back....

This,of course,would all change if Putin were to be kicked  out of office and replaced by someone not insane.

@sneakypete

Russia's territorial integrity is guaranteed by its nuclear arsenal, not by its army.  I don't think China (or anyone else...) would risk an unprovoked invasion of a nuclear-armed nation - especially one led by someone who they saw as unstable.

[Kamaji]

@sneakypete

Russia's territorial integrity is guaranteed by its nuclear arsenal, not by its army.  I don't think China (or anyone else...) would risk an unprovoked invasion of a nuclear-armed nation - especially one led by someone who they saw as unstable.

[sneakypete]

@sneakypete

Russia's territorial integrity is guaranteed by its nuclear arsenal, not by its army. I don't think China (or anyone else...) would risk an unprovoked invasion of a nuclear-armed nation - especially one led by someone who they saw as unstable.

@Maj. Bill Martin

Since nobody wins a fight between two nations that both have nukes,it is a losing proposition from the start,so it's not likely to happen.

Sure,some mental basket case like Putin can order the nukes launched,but will the Generals,and even more importantly,the low-ranking officers and enlisted swine with families to lose and no family nuclear bunker actually follow those orders?

Besides,nobody but retards actually thinks  there is such a thing as "winning" a nuclear war these days.

[kevindavis007]

https://twitter.com/officejjsmart/status/1664591840123682816

[kevindavis007]

https://twitter.com/officejjsmart/status/1664595760355180544

[kevindavis007]

https://twitter.com/officejjsmart/status/1664596584137478144

[kevindavis007]

from r/UkraineWarVideoReport

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/13y86es/020623_berdiansk_port_explosion/

[kevindavis007]

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1664586035915812864

[Maj. Bill Martin]

@Maj. Bill Martin

Since nobody wins a fight between two nations that both have nukes,it is a losing proposition from the start,so it's not likely to happen.

I think the offensive, aggressive first-use of nukes is very unlikely.  However, I think it becomes a different issue if the clearly home territories of a nuclear power are invaded for the purpose of conquest.  At that point, where the continued existence of a nuclear-armed nation is at stake, the calculus is different.  If North Korea was invaded, would you be so sure they wouldn't launch?  Or if an Iran-led coalition of states looked like it was going to swallow Israel, are you sure the Israelis wouldn't?

Sure,some mental basket case like Putin can order the nukes launched,but will the Generals,and even more importantly,the low-ranking officers and enlisted swine with families to lose and no family nuclear bunker actually follow those orders?

Again, I think it is a different issue if you're talking about a defensive use, especially if it is limited.  So say China invades Eastern Russia, there is a meeting in the Kremlin, and the army says "we can't stop them."  If Putin says, okay, we're going to tell them that we're nuking Urumqi if they don't withdraw", I'm not sure the generals would think that unreasonable.

But whether Russia actually would or wouldn't is beside the point.  The real question is whether the Chinese believe there is a legitimate possibility that Russia might respond to invasion with a nuke.  Would you really want to take a risk, even if it is only a 25%, that you'd be triggering a nuclear war?  I don't think they'd do that.

[Maj. Bill Martin]

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1664586035915812864

I honestly think that's being a bit overblown.  The incursions into Russia itself seem to me to be a rather transparent attempt to get the Russians to weaken their defenses in Ukraine, and lack the combat power to be anything more than be a minor annoyance.  I think the Russian generals generally will argue for keeping their Ukrainian positions intact, and just using much smaller local formations to stop the incursions.  At a bare minimum, the Russians would have complete air superiority over their own territory, which would make it very difficult for the raids to have any substantial success.

[Maj. Bill Martin]

from r/UkraineWarVideoReport

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/13y86es/020623_berdiansk_port_explosion/

I think everyone knows the general strategic idea of the Ukrainian counteroffensive, but nobody knows whether they'll aim for Melitopol, Berdyansk, or Mariupol.   That makes a pretty big difference as to where the Russians are going to strengthen their lines, so this likely is part of the campaign to keep them guessing.  Or...maybe they really are going for Berdyansk.

Regardless of the actual target, though, knocking out port facilities in Berdyansk makes sense.

[240B]

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1664586035915812864

[sneakypete]

I think the offensive, aggressive first-use of nukes is very unlikely.  However, I think it becomes a different issue if the clearly home territories of a nuclear power are invaded for the purpose of conquest.  At that point, where the continued existence of a nuclear-armed nation is at stake, the calculus is different.  If North Korea was invaded, would you be so sure they wouldn't launch? 

WHY would anyone want to invade North Korea?

Or if an Iran-led coalition of states looked like it was going to swallow Israel, are you sure the Israelis wouldn't?


@Maj. Bill Martin

I am pretty sure the Israeli's WOULD. This is based on the history of Israel,and what the Jews who settled there went through to GET there,and then went through to build it up and make is a semi-safe place for them to stay.

Again, I think it is a different issue if you're talking about a defensive use, especially if it is limited.  So say China invades Eastern Russia, there is a meeting in the Kremlin, and the army says "we can't stop them."  If Putin says, okay, we're going to tell them that we're nuking Urumqi if they don't withdraw", I'm not sure the generals would think that unreasonable.

You may be right,but I can't even guess what would happen.


But whether Russia actually would or wouldn't is beside the point.  The real question is whether the Chinese believe there is a legitimate possibility that Russia might respond to invasion with a nuke.  Would you really want to take a risk, even if it is only a 25%, that you'd be triggering a nuclear war?

Nope,but I am not a "Maximum Leader Megla-maniac.

[Hoodat]

Russian T-90M taken out in Zaporizhzhia.  Russia started the war with around 50 of these.  They have lost over half that number in Ukraine.

from r/UkraineWarVideoReport

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/13yi0gi/footage_of_the_defeat_of_the_russian_t90m_tank_in/

[Smokin Joe]

I think the offensive, aggressive first-use of nukes is very unlikely.  However, I think it becomes a different issue if the clearly home territories of a nuclear power are invaded for the purpose of conquest.  At that point, where the continued existence of a nuclear-armed nation is at stake, the calculus is different.  If North Korea was invaded, would you be so sure they wouldn't launch?  Or if an Iran-led coalition of states looked like it was going to swallow Israel, are you sure the Israelis wouldn't?

Again, I think it is a different issue if you're talking about a defensive use, especially if it is limited.  So say China invades Eastern Russia, there is a meeting in the Kremlin, and the army says "we can't stop them."  If Putin says, okay, we're going to tell them that we're nuking Urumqi if they don't withdraw", I'm not sure the generals would think that unreasonable.

But whether Russia actually would or wouldn't is beside the point.  The real question is whether the Chinese believe there is a legitimate possibility that Russia might respond to invasion with a nuke.  Would you really want to take a risk, even if it is only a 25%, that you'd be triggering a nuclear war?  I don't think they'd do that.

We need to recall that when then Chinese massed troops (100s of thousands) across the Yalu River as our forces were driving the North Koreans to that border, Gen. Curtis LeMay wanted to nuke them if they started across.
You can argue the possible wisdom of a move that would have avoided the a long series of battles, including the Chosin Reservoir and saved the lives of thousands of our guys, but the bottom line is that it did not happen.

[Timber Rattler]

We need to recall that when then Chinese massed troops (100s of thousands) across the Yalu River as our forces were driving the North Koreans to that border, Gen. Curtis LeMay wanted to nuke them if they started across.
You can argue the possible wisdom of a move that would have avoided the a long series of battles, including the Chosin Reservoir and saved the lives of thousands of our guys, but the bottom line is that it did not happen.

It was actually MacArthur who wanted to nuke the Chinese, which got him into his final argument with Truman and led to his firing.

https://warfarehistorynetwork.com/douglas-macarthur-atomic-bombs-will-win-the-korean-war/

“Of all the campaigns in my life—20 major ones to be exact—the one I felt the most sure of was the one I was deprived of waging properly. I could have won the war in Korea in a maximum of 10 days, once the campaign was under way, and with considerably fewer casualties than were suffered during the so-called truce period. It would have altered the course of history.

(snip)

“The enemy’s air would first have been taken out. I would have dropped between 30 to 50 tactical atomic bombs on his air bases and other depots strung across the neck of Manchuria from just across the Yalu at Antung (northwest tip of Korea) to the neighborhood of Hunchun (northeast tip of Korea near the border of the USSR).

“That many bombs would have more than done the job! Dropped under the cover of darkness, when his planes were in for the night, they would have destroyed his air force on the ground, wiped out his maintenance and his airmen. …

“With the destruction of the enemy’s air power, I would then have called upon a half million of Chiang Kai-shek’s troops, sweetened by two U.S. Marine divisions. These would have been formed into two amphibious forces. One, totaling four-fifths of my strength and led by one of the Marine divisions, would have landed at Antung and proceeded eastward along the road that parallels the Yalu.

“The other force, led by the other Marine division, would have landed simultaneously at Unggi or Najin in the east, hit the same river road, and moved very quickly westward. … [The] forces could have joined in two days, forming a wall of manpower and firepower across the entire northern border of Korea. …

Douglas MacArthur proposed to use atomic bombs to contain China and ultimately win the Korean War.

“Now, with the northern border sealed, the 8th Army, spread roughly along the 38th Parallel, would then have put pressure on the enemy from the South. The joined amphibious forces would press down from the North. Nothing in the way of supplies or reinforcements could have moved across the Yalu.

“North Korea, holding not less than one million to 1 1/2 million of the enemy, could not have sustained him. It had been picked clean. The enemy commander would have been starved out within 10 days after the landings. I suggest now he would have sued for peace immediately after learning his air had been taken out and we had spread across his supply routes.

“You may ask what would have prevented the enemy’s reinforcements massing and crossing the Yalu in great strength, as they had before. It was my plan as our amphibious forces moved South to spread behind us—from the Sea of Japan to the Yellow Sea—a belt of radioactive cobalt. It could have been spread from wagons, carts, trucks and planes. It is not an expensive material.

“It has an active life of between 60 and 120 years. For at least 60 years there could have been no land invasion of Korea from the North. The enemy could not have marched across that radiated collar I proposed to put across Korea’s neck.

“Russia? It makes me laugh when I recall the fears of the Truman-Acheson-Marshall-Bradley-General Staff group that Russia would commit its armies to a war in China’s behalf at the end of an endless one-track railroad [the trans-Siberian, the only means of resupply once the airforce was destroyed] to a peninsular background that led only to the sea. Russia could not have engaged us. She would not have fought for China. She is already unhappy and uncertain over the colossus she has encouraged.”

The Firing of MacArthur

https://www.trumanlibrary.gov/education/presidential-inquiries/firing-macarthur

[sneakypete]

We need to recall that when then Chinese massed troops (100s of thousands) across the Yalu River as our forces were driving the North Koreans to that border, Gen. Curtis LeMay wanted to nuke them if they started across.
You can argue the possible wisdom of a move that would have avoided the a long series of battles, including the Chosin Reservoir and saved the lives of thousands of our guys, but the bottom line is that it did not happen.

@Smokin Joe

@Timber Rattler

Guys,when it comes to China,the rules are different. China's biggest problem,aside from being Industrial Strength Communists,is a population so huge the rulers struggle with  how to feed,house,clothe,and keep them busy so they don't get hungry and bored enough to revolt.

The Chicom leaders would probably welcome the deaths  of several hundred thousands of troops if it also secured them the oil,gold,coal,timber,and other wealth of Eastern Russia.

Hell,they could probably  handle the deaths of more soldiers in Eastern Russia than the whole population of Russia. This might be an exaggeration because I haven't bothered to look up Chinese population numbers,but  I am guessing it is not far off the mark.

I STRONGLY suspect the Masters of China fear their own people a lot more than they fear the Russians.

[Timber Rattler]

@Smokin Joe

@Timber Rattler

Guys,when it comes to China,the rules are different. China's biggest problem,aside from being Industrial Strength Communists,is a population so huge the rulers struggle with  how to feed,house,clothe,and keep them busy so they don't get hungry and bored enough to revolt.

The Chicom leaders would probably welcome the deaths  of several hundred thousands of troops if it also secured them the oil,gold,coal,timber,and other wealth of Eastern Russia.

Hell,they could probably  handle the deaths of more soldiers in Eastern Russia than the whole population of Russia. This might be an exaggeration because I haven't bothered to look up Chinese population numbers,but  I am guessing it is not far off the mark.

I STRONGLY suspect the Masters of China fear their own people a lot more than they fear the Russians.

Well the ChiComs have never valued the lives of their own people, much less their soldiers, and view them as assets to be expended for their greater strategic interests.  A few million here, a few million there...they got plenty more people!

Such as...

Mao Reportedly Sought to A-Bomb U.S. Troops

Chinese leader Mao Tse-tung wanted the Soviets to attack U.S. troops with nuclear weapons after his forces had lured the Americans into China, according to a memoir by Soviet President Andrei A. Gromyko, the New York Times reported Monday.

Gromyko said he rejected the Chinese proposal in a secret visit to Beijing in August, 1958, when Gromyko was foreign minister, the newspaper said.

In his wide-ranging memoirs, which are to be published soon in the Soviet Union, Gromyko wrote that Mao’s plan anticipated an American attack on China as a result of mounting tensions over the Chinese islands of Quemoy and Matsu.

The islands, claimed by the Nationalist government in Taiwan, became the center of an international crisis in September, 1958, when they came under artillery bombardment from China, which did not have nuclear weapons at the time.

Mao told Gromyko that Chinese forces would retreat to the heartland of China, drawing American forces after them.

Once U.S. forces were deep in Chinese territory, Mao proposed that “the Soviet Union should catch them with all its means,” Gromyko wrote.

Gromyko wrote that he was surprised by the audacity of Mao’s plan to use nuclear weapons against U.S. forces, the newspaper reported. He told the Chinese leader, “The scenario of war described by you cannot meet a positive response by us,” said the newspaper in a dispatch from Moscow, quoting from an advance copy of the memoirs.

Soviet historians have written that Mao believed his country could survive a nuclear war, even if it lost 300 million people, and finish off the capitalists with conventional weapons.

https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1988-02-23-mn-44747-story.html

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

Russian T-90M taken out in Zaporizhzhia.  Russia started the war with around 50 of these.  They have lost over half that number in Ukraine.

from r/UkraineWarVideoReport

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/13yi0gi/footage_of_the_defeat_of_the_russian_t90m_tank_in/

I don't understand the wisdom of using tanks in heavily forested areas. I thought they were mainly effective in out in the open areas? Possibly Ukraine forced these type of tactics somehow?