Ukraine 4

[Maj. Bill Martin]

Does it still look like they're planning an encirclement of the Orcs in Bakhmut?

That's a good question.   I wouldn't think the Ukrainians have enough superiority on that front to risk a full encirclement of Bahkmut, because that means they then have to either 1) assault the City, which would be extraordinarily expensive, or 2) maintain that encirclement for long enough to force a Wagner surrender.   So I really don't see the Ukrainians attempting to do that unless they are convinced that the entire Russian front and that area has collapsed, and they have no reserves.

I would think the more likely goal is to leave the Wagnerites an escape route out of the city  so they bug out on their own.   That would let the Ukrainians retake the city at minimal cost, and be a gigantic embarrassment for Russia.

[Maj. Bill Martin]

Saw this - more evidence that things definitely aren't going well at Bakhmut for the Russians:

Russia Announces Deaths of Two Colonels in Bakhmut

Russia has revealed that two of its colonels were killed in Bakhmut while fighting Ukrainian forces.

In a rare announcement of combat losses, the Russian Ministry of Defense confirmed the deaths of Colonel Vyacheslav Makarov of the 4th motorized rifle brigade and Colonel Yevgeny Brovko, deputy commander of the army corps for military-political work.

Both are said to have died "while repelling attacks."  Tass, a news agency closely affiliated with the Russian government, stated that Russian Ministry of Defense representative Lieutenant-General Igor Konashenkov confirmed the deaths.  Konashenkov said Makarov led his unit on the front line and claimed two Ukrainian attacks were repelled. He added: "In the course of repelling the third attack, the brigade commander was seriously wounded and died during the evacuation from the battlefield."

According to Tass: "Brovko died heroically during the battle to repeal one of the attacks, he received multiple shrapnel wounds."

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-announces-deaths-two-colonels-bakhmut-1800192

You don't lose two colonels from a minor local counterattack and well-executed tactical withdrawal.  And this isn't even the main Ukrainian counterattack.  It's just local units taking advantage of the Russians having wasted so many of their own troops in that sector.

[PeteS in CA]

The orc invaders in Bakhmut and in the salients the orcs were trying to use to cut off Ukrainian supplies should all be worried about the current Ukrainian pushes.

The Mi-8 is an old design, one of those kinds that is too useful and upgrade-able to throw away. I've heard that this particular one was being used as an aireborn command post, i.e. was there to coordinate orcish air assets and attacks. Some high-skilled orcs went down in that bird.

The Mi-28 is analogous to a current-Rev AH-64, i.e. a valuable asset with skilled people (pilot and weapons operator). The Su-34 and Su-35 are analogous to an F/A-18 Super Hornet and F-15E, fairly modern.

Whodunit is wide open for speculation - trigger-paranoid Russian SAM battery? Or fighter? Ukrainian SAMs and/or air-air missile? Partisan or Ukrainian infiltrators with shoulder-fired missiles? AFAIK, the Ukrainian government is wisely keeping quiet - whether they know or do not, keeping that knowledge from the Russians is prudent, if not wise.

[kevindavis007]

The horrors of war:

https://twitter.com/officejjsmart/status/1657815719441051650

[PeteS in CA]

Saw this - more evidence that things definitely aren't going well at Bakhmut for the Russians:

...  And this isn't even the main Ukrainian counterattack.  It's just local units taking advantage of the Russians having wasted so many of their own troops in that sector.

That's the interesting uncertainty, for the orcs. Is this push at Bakhmut just part of the see-sawing? A major objective? Designed to divert orcish resources from a near-future main attack? Could success in a diversionary attack be great enough to be exploitable? "E.", All of the above?

[kevindavis007]

Something is happening in Belarus.

https://twitter.com/officejjsmart/status/1657817185249644545

[Hoodat]

Does it still look like they're planning an encirclement of the Orcs in Bakhmut?

There is nothing left on the south side to encircle.  Still have a pocket of Russians north of the city though.

[Cyber Liberty]

That's a good question.   I wouldn't think the Ukrainians have enough superiority on that front to risk a full encirclement of Bahkmut, because that means they then have to either 1) assault the City, which would be extraordinarily expensive, or 2) maintain that encirclement for long enough to force a Wagner surrender.   So I really don't see the Ukrainians attempting to do that unless they are convinced that the entire Russian front and that area has collapsed, and they have no reserves.

I would think the more likely goal is to leave the Wagnerites an escape route out of the city  so they bug out on their own.   That would let the Ukrainians retake the city at minimal cost, and be a gigantic embarrassment for Russia.

"Build your enemy a Golden Bridge to leave the field of battle."

[Maj. Bill Martin]

Something is happening in Belarus.

https://twitter.com/officejjsmart/status/1657817185249644545

I suppose it's possible this is a Russian coup to put someone in charge in Belarus who would be willing to commit troops.  Unlikely, but possible.

[Timber Rattler]

Wagner chief offered to give Russian troop locations to Ukraine, leak says

tps://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/05/14/prigozhin-wagner-ukraine-leaked-documents/

In late January, with his mercenary forces dying by the thousands in a fight for the ruined city of Bakhmut, Wagner Group owner Yevgeniy Prigozhin made Ukraine an extraordinary offer.

Prigozhin said that if Ukraine’s commanders withdrew their soldiers from the area around Bakhmut, he would give Kyiv information on Russian troop positions, which Ukraine could use to attack them. Prigozhin conveyed the proposal to his contacts in Ukraine’s military intelligence directorate, with whom he has maintained secret communications during the course of the war, according to previously unreported U.S. intelligence documents leaked on the group-chat platform Discord.

(snip)

Other leaked documents reveal Russian Defense Ministry officials privately wondering how to respond to Prigozhin’s criticism of the military’s performance and his demands for more resources, which they apparently conceded were not illegitimate grievances. The documents also speak to a power struggle between Prigozhin and top officials, including Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.

Against that tense backdrop, Prigohzin has carried on a secret relationship with Ukrainian intelligence that, in addition to phone calls, includes in-person meetings with HUR officers in an unspecified country in Africa, one document states. Wagner forces provide security to several governments on the continent.

The leaked U.S. intelligence shows Prigozhin bemoaning the heavy toll that fighting has taken on his own forces and urging Ukraine to strike harder against Russian troops.

EXCERPT

Prigozhin's a dead man walking.

[kevindavis007]

Wagner chief offered to give Russian troop locations to Ukraine, leak says

tps://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/05/14/prigozhin-wagner-ukraine-leaked-documents/

EXCERPT

Prigozhin's a dead man walking.

My advice to Prigozhin is this:


Unless he is planning a coup, stay away from windows and hire a food taster. He is a dead man walking.

[Maj. Bill Martin]

Wagner chief offered to give Russian troop locations to Ukraine, leak says

tps://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/05/14/prigozhin-wagner-ukraine-leaked-documents/

EXCERPT

Prigozhin's a dead man walking.

Ha!  It could be true, or it could be totally made up as an effort to divide Wagner and the Russians.  Either way, it's awesome.

[Maj. Bill Martin]

This guy has been posting on the war a lot, and there is some really outstanding information in this series of tweets coming from a Russian volunteer.  It has the ring of authenticity to it, and has some really great content.  I can't post it all directly because its mostly screenshots, but very definitely worth reading the whole series of tweets/screenshots.

Incredible stuff that goes to the lack of Russian radio discipline, Ukraine (NATO/US) advantage in the EM spectrum, Russian failure to rotate troops, and a bunch of stuff.  Just as an example, the one Russia brigade that was just in the news for collapsing has been on the front lines since the war began.  It has never been rotated out, and they just send replacements for the guys killed.

The Russians are so screwed....

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1657297370722312192?s=20

[Smokin Joe]

Ha!  It could be true, or it could be totally made up as an effort to divide Wagner and the Russians.  Either way, it's awesome.

Wonder if the Russian media will blow this off as 'murcan disinformation?

[sneakypete]

Wonder if the Russian media will blow this off as 'murcan disinformation?

@Smokin Joe

I THINK the Russian media is back to only reporting what they are TOLD to report.

Pooty Poot is a dictator.

[Smokin Joe]

@Smokin Joe

I THINK the Russian media is back to only reporting what they are TOLD to report.

Pooty Poot is a dictator.

Yep! (makes you wonder how much that same thing applies here, and who is the 'power behind the throne').

[sneakypete]

Yep! (makes you wonder how much that same thing applies here, and who is the 'power behind the throne').

@Smokin Joe

Same familes as ever,just a new generation of them.

"The Creature from Jekyll Island"

https://www.bing.com/search?q=the+creature+from+jekyll+island+book&form=ANNNB1&refig=8c4f85bb4c6e441cbf473b9d82f45f5b&sp=3&lq=0&qs=SC&pq=the+creatures+from+jekyl&sk=OS1SC1&sc=10-24&cvid=8c4f85bb4c6e441cbf473b9d82f45f5b

[kevindavis007]

I hope the Orcs pay dearly in the long term

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1658429042385645568

[Kamaji]

Ukraine shoots down six of Putin's 'unstoppable' hypersonic missiles as Russia hits Kyiv with 'exceptionally complex' attack that 'destroyed US Patriot air defence system'

Moscow launched several waves of drones and missiles on Ukrainian capital
The Tuesday morning attack came hours after Zelensky met with Rishi Sunak

By DAVID AVERRE
16 May 2023

Russia launched a brutal drone and missile attack on Ukraine's capital early this morning, just hours after Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky said he would be returning from a European tour with a restocked weapons arsenal.

Ukraine claimed its robust air defence system, comprised of Soviet-era and Western-supplied platforms, managed to successfully shoot down 18 of Moscow's missiles, six of which were reportedly hypersonic 'Kinzhal' missiles which Vladimir Putin once boasted were 'unstoppable'.

But the Russian Defence Ministry in turn claimed one of its missiles had successfully destroyed a US-designed and supplied Patriot air defence system - a feat amounting to the loss of hundreds of millions of dollars' worth of state-of-the-art technology that could leave the Ukrainian capital vulnerable to further attacks.

*  *  *

Source:  https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12088327/Putin-hits-Kyiv-exceptionally-complex-simultaneous-attack-drones-ballistic-missiles.html

[Maj. Bill Martin]

Ukraine shoots down six of Putin's 'unstoppable' hypersonic missiles as Russia hits Kyiv with 'exceptionally complex' attack that 'destroyed US Patriot air defence system'

Moscow launched several waves of drones and missiles on Ukrainian capital
The Tuesday morning attack came hours after Zelensky met with Rishi Sunak

By DAVID AVERRE
16 May 2023

Russia launched a brutal drone and missile attack on Ukraine's capital early this morning, just hours after Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky said he would be returning from a European tour with a restocked weapons arsenal.

Ukraine claimed its robust air defence system, comprised of Soviet-era and Western-supplied platforms, managed to successfully shoot down 18 of Moscow's missiles, six of which were reportedly hypersonic 'Kinzhal' missiles which Vladimir Putin once boasted were 'unstoppable'.

But the Russian Defence Ministry in turn claimed one of its missiles had successfully destroyed a US-designed and supplied Patriot air defence system - a feat amounting to the loss of hundreds of millions of dollars' worth of state-of-the-art technology that could leave the Ukrainian capital vulnerable to further attacks.

*  *  *

Source:  https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12088327/Putin-hits-Kyiv-exceptionally-complex-simultaneous-attack-drones-ballistic-missiles.html

"But the Russian Defence Ministry in turn claimed...."


https://youtu.be/OjYoNL4g5Vg

[Hoodat]

But the Russian Defence Ministry in turn claimed one of its missiles had successfully destroyed a US-designed and supplied Patriot air defence system -

It took six months for the US to finally deliver one Patriot battery to Ukraine.

[Hoodat]

from r/UkraineWarVideoReport

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/13iac34/lukashenko_is_alive_but_doesnt_look_well/

[Hoodat]

His hand doesn't look good.

[kevindavis007]

His hand doesn't look good.

I wonder what drugs he is on.

[Kamaji]

Ukrainian city of Khmelnytskyi rocked by huge explosion after Russia sends 21 drones to army missile silo causing enormous fireball which 'injured 30 people'

Reports said only two of the victims were hospitalized of the 'nearly 30' injured

By MATT POWELL
13 May 2023

The Ukrainian city of Khmelnytskyi was rocked by huge explosion after Russia reportedly sent 21 drones to an army silo causing enormous fireball which injured dozens.

Vladimir Putin appears to be targeting ammunition storages in west Ukraine as Kyiv's counter-offensive approaches.

According to the Khmelnytskyi Oblast State Administration, only two of the victims were hospitalized of the 'nearly 30' injured.

*  *  *

Source:  https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12081047/Ukrainian-city-Khmelnytskyi-rocked-huge-explosion-causing-fireball-injured-30-people.html


This was apparently a Ukraine ammunition depot, although there is speculation that much of what was stored there was older stuff (source:  https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-ammo-storage-site-obliterated-where-huge-fireball-seen )