2023 Tropical Weather Discussion

[Wingnut]

Wouldn't be nice if the weather porn prognosticators would for once, just once, say that the chances of this cane causing serious damage to the US is very slime.

This is why we have lost faith in our institutions. 

[DefiantMassRINO]

 

[catfish1957]

I think the likes of the NHC do a decent objective and straightforward job of reporting storms. In fact they provide the reader an exact tally of the probability of a Hurricane or T.S. Hit out 120 hours.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSAT3+shtml/112041.shtml?

The rest of proggys like the Weather Channel, Accuweather, et. al.  often succumb to that sensational side of storm predictions. 


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZyrRCx8-fZk

[catfish1957]

Still waiting for Lee's abrupt right turn.

90% of the pervious model runs had Lee more north than 25N, as it passed 65W Longitude.  Makes me wonder if the official track should be  more west than present.

[catfish1957]

48 hours late, but that long expected northward turn has begun for Lee.    Winds right now are a robust 115mph Cat 3 sustained winds.  As far as future tracking, I think we are now down to counting Lat/Long Clicks as far as New England.  Official NHC path now has the line at the far eastern border of Maine as an extra-tropical Tropical Storm.   Overall cone itself streches from Cape Cod, MA to Newfoundland.

Storms like this as they get caught up in the Gulf Stream have a tendency to broaden their wind fields, and a lot forecating is saying the mid atlantic to Canada, and including Bermuda should expect Tropical Storm  Winds. 

With minimal expected adverse hurricane issues (ex. flooding, rip currents), this will be my last comments on Lee.

[libertybele]

48 hours late, but that long expected northward turn has begun for Lee.    Winds right now are a robust 115mph Cat 3 sustained winds.  As far as future tracking, I think we are now down to counting Lat/Long Clicks as far as New England.  Official NHC path now has the line at the far eastern border of Maine as an extra-tropical Tropical Storm.   Overall cone itself streches from Cape Cod, MA to Newfoundland.

Storms like this as they get caught up in the Gulf Stream have a tendency to broaden their wind fields, and a lot forecating is saying the mid atlantic to Canada, and including Bermuda should expect Tropical Storm  Winds. 

With minimal expected adverse hurricane issues (ex. flooding, rip currents), this will be my last comments on Lee.

Thank you for the updates @catfish1957 

[Kamaji]

48 hours late, but that long expected northward turn has begun for Lee.    Winds right now are a robust 115mph Cat 3 sustained winds.  As far as future tracking, I think we are now down to counting Lat/Long Clicks as far as New England.  Official NHC path now has the line at the far eastern border of Maine as an extra-tropical Tropical Storm.   Overall cone itself streches from Cape Cod, MA to Newfoundland.

Storms like this as they get caught up in the Gulf Stream have a tendency to broaden their wind fields, and a lot forecating is saying the mid atlantic to Canada, and including Bermuda should expect Tropical Storm  Winds. 

With minimal expected adverse hurricane issues (ex. flooding, rip currents), this will be my last comments on Lee.

Thanks!

[DefiantMassRINO]

I wonder if Hurricane Margot will help to push Lee further west.

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/fulldisk_band.php?sat=G16&band=08&length=24&dim=1

[catfish1957]

Next up...  The "N" Storm

Nigel now formed, and is forecasted to intensify pretty rapidly, reaching Cat 3 by Tuesday.  The Good news is this one is 99% likely to be a fish storm. 

From my experience this year is kind of looking like a lot like 1995.  That was a big year for storms, and the 5th most active in history.  BUT...  The big character of that year, was most of that activtiy was in the Central Atlantic..  Only one named major hurricane hit the  U.S. that year.  Opal, in September.   Yeah, in terms of destruction, a lower than normal year, but I am sure the people around Pensacola, might have a different take.

[catfish1957]

Looking out on the expanses of the GOM, Caribbean, and Atlantic, it is a very strange view indeed for September 19th.  Yeah, Fish Storm Nigel is stirring up water in the Central Atlantic, but for the life of me, there is practically nothing going on during when should be the most active part of the year.  (See below)

The most interesting feature on the maps right now, is a 100 mile by 100 mile clump of preciptation lingering just NW of Yucatan 23N/92W.  If this thing would disassociate from the front, and get some low shear, this might crop up as a problem.  But there is almost like October N/S sheer, and as long as this rings true, this system will have no chance.

Lastly there are a couple of small tropical waves in the Carribean, but they are so close to land, I don't expect ay development.  Considering the elevated water temperatures basin wide, it does seem quite odd.

[libertybele]

Local news is forecasting Nigel as a rainmaker on the East coast.  We're getting our daily rains and wind gusts which are typical for our rainy season.

Hurricane Idalia hit the Big Bend area hard and it brought us tropical storm weather.

I would love for this to be the end of our storms, but we still have till the end of November to get through and we've had tropical storms into December before.

[Wingnut]

I would love for this to be the end of our storms, but we still have till the end of November to get through and we've had tropical storms into December before.

I'm Chill.   Don't play into the Cane porn. 

[catfish1957]

Extra -Tropical Storm No. 16 has formed off the east coast, and it looks like it might bring some strong T.S. Wind, waves, and rain to the east coast from about NC to New England.  Doesn't look too serious at this point, but Briefers in that vicinity might keep half an ey on it for between now and early next week, in case conditions warrant.



Otherwise, there is a pretty healthy looking wave out by Cape Verde that is way too soon to make any guesses.  Systems out there so far have pretty much been fish storms.  And right now there are enough lows digging out at about 40-50W to think this might be the same.

GOM and Caribbean?  Pretty clear.  There is NW/SE Axis low near Mobile to Key West, though no evidence of organization thus far.

[catfish1957]

24 Sep 2023 update....

Ophelia unwinding and inundanting east coast as extratropical low.

Newly formed Phillipe, poised to be the next fish storm and should turn northward several hundred miles east of Bermuda.

One decent Cape Verde Wave at about 9N/24W.  Several days away from being any kind of concern.  This one, for record though is more south than other recent disturbances, and at those latitudes should be less coductive to an earlier north turn.  Way to soon, to know if it is a threat though.

[catfish1957]

"R" and "P" storms appear to be trending fish variety, so no short term concerns, or updates

Of interest though is the GOM/Caribbean  looks like things are finally starting to wake up.  Recent frontal troughs reaching the gulf have been pretty spotty on convection.  But looking today, there is a nice chunk of "so far" unorganized convection in the entire Noth GOM at about Latitude 28.  No spin yet, but I am seeing some examples of the precipitation tranversing within 25-50 miles  of individual storm clusters.

The fact we have not seen a GOM originated storm this late, and with these temperature anomalies, is very surprising.  Out luck won't hold up for the rest of the season though.

[catfish1957]

Next up...  Tammy. 

Yes, we are at the "T" strom which means under most accounts indicates a very active hurricane season.  Luck continues good for CONUS as, this one's forecast at this point show only some T.S. impacts to the Lesser Antilles.

Knock on wood, thus far has been a very mild season overall with impacts, ....  i.e outside the catastrophic hit Idalia to FL in August. 
October and November are still prone to large storms in the eastern GOM and SE Coast. 

[Wingnut]

Good news is Gulf Temps are cooling faster than normal this year.  Hope the trend continues.

[libertybele]

Interesting -- they finally got around to acknowledging that Ian was a Cat 5. I am hopeful that we are in a continued calm cycle

2023 hurricane season: Least impactful for US in nearly a decade

According to initial estimates, between $3-$4 billion worth of damage was done during the 2023 hurricane season. The 2017 hurricane season ranks as the costliest in U.S. history, with around $300 billion worth of damage done. According to NOAA, a significant landfalling hurricane produces damage of around $22.8 billion.

 The fourth most active Atlantic basin hurricane season in the satellite era has drawn to a close, but what could have been a season of records left the U.S. relatively unscathed compared to recent years.

According to NOAA estimates, between $3-$4 billion worth of damage was done during the 2023 hurricane season, making it the quietest season since 2015 - another El Niño year.
Idalia was the only U.S. landfalling hurricane in 2023

Hurricane Idalia, which struck Florida’s Big Bend as a Category 3 hurricane, was the most impactful cyclone and produced more than 80% of the season’s damage.

Government estimates put the damage tally at around $2.5-$3 billion, which was largely centered along the Gulf Coast, between Tallahassee and Tampa Bay..............



https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/hurricane-season-2023-summary-recap

[catfish1957]

Thankful is was a "lite" season, especially in the western GOM sector.

We needed the break.