Model data has tightened nicely around an approximate Cedar Key landfall at what appears to be hurricane winds arriving late Tues.
Noticed there is a large clump of convection that has broken off to the north, that with that churning might slightly help delay intensification, though the NHC doesn't seem to be picking up on that. Storm itself though slowly organizing does not show a evident sign of an open discernable eye, or the nice spiral configuation. I do see evidence of a strong COC, but not typical of a storm in this level of development.
I know the NHC knows a helluva lot more than me, and has a plethora of data I don't have access to. But for the life of me, I don' t see how this storm under the present scenario can strengthen from 85 to 120 mph given what I see in the GOM right now. I am guessing / banking tht the NHC is putting stock into the overheated NE Gulf water temperatures for that call.
When Idelia passes Tampa Bay's latitude, the cone at least at this advisory will be about 60 miles wide. But where in that 60 mile cone is going to be like night and day for the folks in TB. East side?.. Expect hurricane force winds possibly and storm surge flooding. West side? A Breezy rainy day.
One interesting point is that this is one of the more behaved (predictive) storms I have seen in awhile. The path hasn't strayed more than 100 miles in any direction since the storm has been inititalized. Strength wise, I think they underestimated early, but at least from my POV, landfall might be anywhere from 90-130 mph sustained winds. Let's not forget how unpredictable these things are.
Back in 2007, I watched Humberto hit us, while being a wave one day, and a Cat 1 storm the next.