2023 Tropical Weather Discussion

[cato potatoe]

No need to panic till Jim Cantore shows up.

He'll be here by Monday afternoon, I bet.  Idalia found a tank of Caribbean rocket fuel this evening.  No bueno.

[catfish1957]

Looking at this morning's model runs, and condtions in the GOM, just a few observations:

1.  Winds and sheer has dropped to near zero to the north and path of the storm.  That is a green light toward intensification.
2. Sea Temperatures are anaomolus highs
3. There is a dry tongue of air from South Texas to near the west Tip of Cuba that might restrict some early rapid intensification.
4. Trough axis (weak front) between East Texas to KY is also going to be critical to how much and how soon of an eastward turn the storm makes. 
5. Storm itself is finally starting to show some symethry and organization.
6.  I see storm is now forcasted to be a Cat 3 at landfall. I wouldn't be surprised if that upward trend continues. 

[libertybele]

Looking at this morning's model runs, and condtions in the GOM, just a few observations:

1.  Winds and sheer has dropped to near zero to the north and path of the storm.  That is a green light toward intensification.
2. Sea Temperatures are anaomolus highs
3. There is a dry tongue of air from South Texas to near the west Tip of Cuba that might restrict some early rapid intensification.
4. Trough axis (weak front) between East Texas to KY is also going to be critical to how much and how soon of an eastward turn the storm makes. 
5. Storm itself is finally starting to show some symethry and organization.
6.  I see storm is now forcasted to be a Cat 3 at landfall. I wouldn't be surprised if that upward trend continues.

In listening to the latest local forecasts, storm surge watch is in effect for our area.  Interestingly they have not shown any "spaghetti model" tracks since yesterday.  They are still expecting it to hit the Big Bend area -- but they have now increased the 'warning' area of storm surge.  This is concerning.

We've have some water, but the stores are empty.  I'll start filling up the 3gal jugs that we have with tap water (ugh)  -- it's drinkable.

Plenty of food -- gas stations are crazy.  We have a gas caddy filled for the generator and our cars are filled up.  We will see impact as early as tomorrow morning.

We are staying put.  The latest announcement for the county is that there are no evacuation orders in place.  We will know more by 5:30 -- a little late to start evacuations for tomorrow. Here we are once again!!

The forecasting has a lot to be desired.  I feel like they don't have a clue. 

[berdie]

Much luck to you and all other Fla residents.

[catfish1957]

Model data has tightened nicely around an approximate Cedar Key landfall at what appears to be hurricane winds arriving late Tues.

Noticed there is a large clump of convection that has broken off to the north, that with that churning might slightly help delay intensification, though the NHC doesn't seem to be picking up on that.  Storm itself though slowly organizing does not show a evident sign of an open discernable eye, or the nice spiral configuation.  I do see evidence of a strong COC, but not typical of a storm in this level of development.

I know the NHC knows a helluva lot more than me, and has a plethora of data I don't have access to.  But for the life of me, I don' t see how this storm under the present scenario can strengthen from 85 to 120 mph given what I see in the GOM right now.   I am guessing / banking tht the NHC is putting stock into the overheated NE Gulf water temperatures for that call.

When Idelia passes Tampa Bay's latitude, the cone at least at this advisory will be about 60 miles wide.  But where in that 60 mile cone is going to be like night and day for the folks in TB.  East side?..  Expect hurricane force winds possibly and storm surge flooding. West side? A Breezy rainy day.

One interesting point is that this is one of the more behaved (predictive) storms I have seen in awhile.  The path hasn't strayed more than 100 miles in any direction since the storm has been inititalized.  Strength wise, I think they underestimated early, but at least from my POV, landfall might be anywhere from 90-130 mph sustained winds.  Let's not forget how unpredictable these things are.

Back in 2007, I watched Humberto hit us, while being a wave one day, and a Cat 1 storm the next.

[catfish1957]

With 11 am advisory, max windspeeds still at 85 mph.  Which is surprising, and  consistent with my earlier contention that the 120-125 mph max windspeed at landfall might be overstated.

Otherwise, no change in track and timing.

[libertybele]

5:00 p.m. advisory - now tracking north and moving slightly faster @ 16mph - winds - 100 mph.  Now a Cat 2 hurricane.  Winds at landfall will be a little less at 115 mph. -- still a Cat 3.  Storm surge will still be significant with the possibility of the Big Bend area seeing 15 ft. 

[Wingnut]

I am pissed.   We need rain bad and this damn storm is turning right. 

[libertybele]

I am pissed.   We need rain bad and this damn storm is turning right.

Be careful what you wish for -- hurricanes are so unpredictable.

We are getting lots of rain -- heavy rain and gusts of wind off and on for the next 12 hrs.  We will get storm surge during high tide -- not good  I'm hoping and praying for the best.  The Big Bend area /Tampa Bay/Cedar Key are going to be absolutely devastated.

[Wingnut]

Be careful what you wish for -- hurricanes are so unpredictable.

We are getting lots of rain -- heavy rain and gusts of wind off and on for the next 12 hrs.  We will get storm surge during high tide -- not good  I'm hoping and praying for the best.  The Big Bend area /Tampa Bay/Cedar Key are going to be absolutely devastated.

Hey.  It is the luck of the draw.  I really don't care as long as I dont get hit. 

[catfish1957]

Storm strenghthen significantly over the afternoon, and sustained winds are up to 105 mph.  I really enjoy studying the configuation of storm, as mapping each is as unique as a snowflake.   One really interesting component of Ilaya is look at the southern outflow of the storm.   It extends all the way to the SW coast of Mexico.  (Truncated on this map, but look at other VISAT.

[catfish1957]

There is always at least one Cape Verde Storm in September that always scares the sh__ out of us, and AL95, a couple of thousand miles east of Windward Islands, might be this year's candidate.  It is an unusually well developed wave this early in its development. 

Def. one to keep an eye on.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

[catfish1957]

AL95 is now TD 13, and very shortly will be Lee.  This thing is forecasted to be a major hurricane, with a line share of the models having this thing as a Cat 3 or 4 within 3 or 4 days.  The cone 5 days out is about 500 miles wide.  Where Lee sits at that point 65W Latitude, will have a large bearing on whether this is a FL/or GOM storm versus a Bermuda, NE U.S., or Fish Storm.  Even as a Depression, this thing looks pretty impressive organizationally for a storm this early.  Def. one we have to watch closely.

[libertybele]

AL95 is now TD 13, and very shortly will be Lee.  This thing is forecasted to be a major hurricane, with a line share of the models having this thing as a Cat 3 or 4 within 3 or 4 days.  The cone 5 days out is about 500 miles wide.  Where Lee sits at that point 65W Latitude, will have a large bearing on whether this is a FL/or GOM storm versus a Bermuda, NE U.S., or Fish Storm.  Even as a Depression, this thing looks pretty impressive organizationally for a storm this early.  Def. one we have to watch closely.

Hoping that this one stays away from FL -- we've had enough.

[GtHawk]

AL95 is now TD 13, and very shortly will be Lee.  This thing is forecasted to be a major hurricane, with a line share of the models having this thing as a Cat 3 or 4 within 3 or 4 days.  The cone 5 days out is about 500 miles wide.  Where Lee sits at that point 65W Latitude, will have a large bearing on whether this is a FL/or GOM storm versus a Bermuda, NE U.S., or Fish Storm.  Even as a Depression, this thing looks pretty impressive organizationally for a storm this early.  Def. one we have to watch closely.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5HY1EAzjxz8

[catfish1957]

https://www.yutube.com/watch?v=5HY1EAzjxz8

A mid September Trough/Front of this magnitude would be just what the doctor ordered.  OTOH, seeing a 1020 Mb High reaching the GOM around September would be a pretty darn rare event, and something more  more likely seen in October.  Which is why Texas has never seen a Major Hurricane in October.

Another point that the guy (who did a good job on his synopsis) lost site of, is that this storm is so early in its life, we still haven't got what I feel is a iron clad initialization point.  COC's this early on can relocate a 100 miles at a drop of a hat.  And any significant southern relocation of the center can change the projected path by several 100's of miles.  Don't forget, just a 5 degree latitude  southward shift, can significantly reduce the corollis trending that causes storms typically to turn North, then East.

In a nutshell, any speculation of where this storm goes is a pure guess. That means anywhere from Mexico (like Gilbert) to Fish Central is in play.

[libertybele]

A mid September Trough/Front of this magnitude would be just what the doctor ordered.  OTOH, seeing a 1020 Mb High reaching the GOM around September would be a pretty darn rare event, and something more  more likely seen in October.  Which is why Texas has never seen a Major Hurricane in October.

Another point that the guy (who did a good job on his synopsis) lost site of, is that this storm is so early in its life, we still haven't got what I feel is a iron clad initialization point.  COC's this early on can relocate a 100 miles at a drop of a hat.  And any significant southern relocation of the center can change the projected path by several 100's of miles.  Don't forget, just a 5 degree latitude  southward shift, can significantly reduce the corollis trending that causes storms typically to turn North, then East.

In a nutshell, any speculation of where this storm goes is a pure guess. That means anywhere from Mexico (like Gilbert) to Fish Central is in play.

Now tropical Storm Lee.  Local news is reporting that there is some indication that this could become a Cat 5 Hurricane.  Spaghetti models are not in total agreement that this will miss FL with most models showing it moving up towards the Carolinas.

This is moving rapidly with very little wind sheer to prevent it from further development.

I don't like the looks of where this is heading and a Cat 5 is very worrisome.  It's going to be again one of those last minute efforts to get out of harms way because it is moving so rapidly and too early right now to tell where it's heading.

[catfish1957]

NHC has Lee an eyelash under Cat 5 status by Saturday.  Path is forecasted to be very linear  at 295 degrees.  This is pretty typical of monster storms which sometimes do this as they sometimes seem  to defy atmospheric influences.  Gilbert comes to mind as an example.

Unless this one somehow succumbs to a northward curve, we are likely looking at historic storm.

[Kamaji]

NHC has Lee an eyelash under Cat 5 status by Saturday.  Path is forecasted to be very linear  at 295 degrees.  This is pretty typical of monster storms which sometimes do this as they sometimes seem  to defy atmospheric influences.  Gilbert comes to mind as an example.

Unless this one somehow succumbs to a northward curve, we are likely looking at historic storm.

That one looks like it'll tromp right straight across Florida, into the northern Gulf, and then head up into the heartland.

[Gefn]

That one looks like it'll tromp right straight across Florida, into the northern Gulf, and then head up into the heartland.

I"m terrible at geography. Does it Looks like it will go up the East Coast?

[libertybele]

Local news is reporting that Hurricane Lee is 500 miles wide and is projected to take a turn to the north due to Bermuda high winds.  However not all spaghetti models are in agreement - some show it going into the Gulf, some show it hitting the lower southeast coast of FL though most show it taking a northward trend away from the U.S. coast.  Tomorrow into Saturday it will become a Cat 4 and the direction will be much better known.

[libertybele]

[libertybele]

Jim Cantore
@JimCantore

Beyond Sunday things get very interesting because steering is resetting in the larger scale atmosphere and how certain features evolve and interact is very important as to how #Lee interacts or doesn't with Bermuda and/or the eastern part of USA/Canada.   So this tweet is all about NEXT WEEK.
Lee could stall early next week north of the Greater Antilles as it waits for large scale features to set up.  Monday features a formidable Lee north of the Greater Antilles.  By Wednesday several ECMWF members have Lee on the move north with east coast troughing and a subtropical ridge north and east.  By next Friday look at the spread by the members.  It could be anywhere from north of the Turks to north of Bermuda.  You can see the features set up on the ECMWF for Friday, but little confidence in how strong or weak they are and how they play with Lee at this point is shown here. 
That is why Bermuda should be watching Lee intently and we cannot rule out impacts for the northeast USA and maritime Canada at this time.  We do know this will be a huge wave machine for the eastern part of the USA.

[catfish1957]

Almost all model data is pointing to a significant trough/front late this week in SE CONUS that is going result in a significant northward turn.
Seems the GOM is spared, and FL much less likely impacted outside of rip currents.  Mid Atlantic to New England isn't out of the woods yet, but at least the past 12 hour trending is looking much better.

I still think this thing has a 50/50 chance of making it to Cat 5.  In any case, in its forceast they are expecting Lee to have a 400 mile diameter of tropical force winds.  That's impressive.

[Kamaji]

Almost all model data is pointing to a significant trough/front late this week in SE CONUS that is going result in a significant northward turn.
Seems the GOM is spared, and FL much less likely impacted outside of rip currents.  Mid Atlantic to New England isn't out of the woods yet, but at least the past 12 hour trending is looking much better.

I still think this thing has a 50/50 chance of making it to Cat 5.  In any case, in its forceast they are expecting Lee to have a 400 mile diameter of tropical force winds.  That's impressive.

What are the odds that it might smack into NY harbor, or cut across L.I.?