I have seen no shortage of recourse to early election polling by those who have not attended many political rodeos. Certainly in 2023, Donald Trump has been dominating early Republican polling, this is not even debatable really. And while early polling may not be completely worthless; at the same time, it is hardly to be considered trustworthy as a barometer of accurate electoral prognostication.
I have pointed this out in a number of tweets but never addressed it in too much depth. This posting will provide more of a sketch to illustrate the folly of relying on early polling. Before I get to the meat of this note, I should define my terms. By "early polling" I refer broadly to any polling that takes place prior to the start of primary/caucus season in the year prior to a presidential election.
Having clarified this point, let us now consider some historical examples of early polling for party nominations, presidential general elections, and sometimes both. Without further ado...
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https://www.twitlonger.com/show/n_1ss9rmv
