Keith B. Payne, Nuclear Disarmament: The Contemporary “Great Illusion”?, No. 552, April 19, 2023
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Nuclear Disarmament: The Contemporary “Great Illusion”?
Dr. Keith B. Payne
Dr. Keith B. Payne is a co-founder of the National Institute for Public Policy, professor emeritus at the Graduate School of Defense and Strategic Studies, Missouri State University, a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense and former Senior Advisor to the Office of the Secretary of Defense.
Introduction
In 1910, Sir Norman Angell first published a book entitled, The Great Illusion: A Study of the Relation of Military Power to National Advantage. With numerous illustrations and detailed evidence, Angell reached conclusions that the world was eager to hear, i.e., war and military preparations were of sharply declining value and could soon be a thing of the past. The Great Illusion was a sensation in much of Europe—particularly among the British intelligencia. Angell was both knighted and awarded the 1933 Nobel Peace Prize for his powerful work.
The basic thesis of Sir Norman’s work was that, given the economic advancement and interdependence of European nations, territorial control and military power no longer were the basis for economic advantage and national prosperity. Continuing to think otherwise was “the Great Illusion.” Angell emphasized the point that wars waged for the purpose of territorial control and associated economic advantages were now more likely to impoverish both winners and losers because war destroys the financial and trade ties that create national wealth in an interdependent international system. War, he said, had become irrational because cooperative relations provide the potential for mutual prosperity. Angell deemed cooperation to be the only rational choice.
In short, Angell asserted that “the need for defence arises from the existence of a motive for attack,”[1] but the old wealth-based motives for attack no longer held. And, as leaders increasingly came to understand that warlike behaviors and preparations could not provide material benefit, rational citizens and leaders would retreat from supporting warlike behaviors and preparations. As broad European communities recognized the advantages of cooperation and the disadvantages of war for winner and loser alike, they would rationally seek cooperative transnational ties and reject war and the preparation for war. Angell wrote that the “Law of Acceleration” could rapidly drive more amicable and peaceful international relations, and prudent disarmament.[2]
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