Trumps surge to the left on spending and attacking successful Republican leadership in Florida, seems odd to those of us who are conservative. But I do have a theory of what Trump is doing here.
Back when he ran in 2016, he tried to court Bernie Sanders voters. And it worked to a degree. I think he’s deploying that same strategy now but I don’t think it’s gonna really work this time because those Bernie Sanders voters who were at least willing to vote for Donald Trump in 2016 are gone.
I think he believes that if conservatives abandon him, especially if a conservative jumps into the Republican primary, he’ll win without Conservative voters and just replace them with Bernie Sanders voters.
I predict he will continue to lurch leftward. And watch it intensify, if and when DeSantis gets in the mix
Here’s the story from 2016 that might back up why I believe my theory might be correct
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/beneath-close-election-contest-lie-deep-rifts-groups/story?id=43253122Beneath a Close Election Contest Lie Deep Rifts Among Groups (POLL)
Profound rifts among groups lie beneath the close presidential contest.
ByGARY LANGER, SOFI SINOZICH, CHAD KIEWIET DE JONGE and GREGORY HOLYK
November 3, 2016, 6:00 AM
2:52
Clinton, Trump Make All-Out Campaign Push
ABC News' Jon Karl and political analys...Read More
— -- Profound rifts among groups lie beneath the close presidential contest, underscoring the country’s fundamental political divisions not only by gender, education, race and ethnicity but also by factors ranging from religious belief to residential area.
Overall, likely voters divide 47 to 45 percent between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump in the latest ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll. Third-party candidates Gary Johnson and Jill Stein have 3 and 2 percent support, respectively.
There’s a 22 point gender gap in the contest, nearly double the norm in elections since 1976. And that pales compared with other gaps — 44 points between college- and non-college-educated whites, 65 points between whites and nonwhites, 66 points between rural and urban residents and 97 points between white evangelicals and likely voters who don’t profess a particular religion.
Overall, the race has gone from up 1 point for Trump to even to up 2 points for Clinton in four-night averages in this poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates. These are not significant changes, given the survey’s sample size, about 1,100 likely voters. That said, Trump has had a nonsignificant but numerical advantage just twice in ABC/Post polls, up 2 points in a two-way test May 19 and up 1 point Oct. 30.
Clinton has held significant and even substantial leads, but these have been sensitive to events and propensity to vote, given the lukewarm nature of her support (and Trump’s).
This is reflected in levels of strong enthusiasm for the candidates — tepid overall, with patterns among groups that help identify their strengths and weaknesses. Trump has a 7 point edge in strong enthusiasm, with challenges in enthusiasm for Clinton among independents.
Another
factor, early voting, has accelerated, up from 21 percent of likely voters Oct. 30 to 27 percent now. After starting better for Clinton, vote preferences in this group have tightened to 50 percent for Clinton, 45 percent for Trump in the latest four-night average.
Primary Support
Resolving one lingering question from the primaries, Clinton has shored up her support among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents who preferred Bernie Sanders for the nomination; 82 percent of them now support her, up from a low of 70 percent in July. Still, she loses 8 percent of former Sanders supporters to Trump and 7 percent to Stein or Johnson.
Trump is not making any arguments along the lines of “Ok. People may be happy in Florida with their leadership. But Ron DeSantis has a Republican StateHouse that makes it easier for him. I’ve had to deal with Democrats and establishment Republicans and I will have a better luck bringing the Florida model to the country.” His basically likening Florida to a Third World hellhole because he knows he will not attract Bernie Sanders type voters if he looks at the Florida model for the nation.
And that is why I think the republican party is going to be in for a fight not just this election cycle but probably at least a couple more. Big government populism versus conservatism.
My wife knew a couple that supported Bernie Sanders, but did vote for Trump in 2016, but then voted for Biden in 2020
