The think tank is wrong. Does not take a master mind to figure it out either.
What is the biggest problem? The theater of operation, which is what, 10,000+ miles from the USA. Same problem the USA would have fighting Russia, the supply line distance. Fighting a war in our back yard, yes, we have a chance, but on the other side of the globe, with a SMALL NAVY like what we have? Forget it.
The ONLY THING that would serve as a deterrent would be for the USA to establish military bases on Taiwan like what we have in Germany, and in Korea. I never saw mentioned the Taiwanese want that.
And in terms of Americans enlisting to fight and die for Taiwan, guess what, Canada's population expands a far greater degree than it did during the Vietnam War. The Vietnam War made no sense, but a war in Taiwan is on a scale ten times worse than Vietnam. At least ten times. And the USA would have few allies. Just look at what the leader of France said yesterday. No Way is what he said. NO WAY! No surprise either for anyone in the know.