Trump widens lead over DeSantis to 33 points in new survey

[Idiot]

I'm not so sure about that.

Trump won about 45% of the primary vote in 2016, which includes getting nearly all of the votes in the later primaries after other candidates had dropped out.  To me, that is the true number of people in his "base".  So maybe 35-40%.  The rest of his support are those of us who voted for/supported him in the general election because he was the nominee.

When DeSantis declares -- and he will -- a lot is going to depend on how many other elected Republicans come out to support him, because that's the kind of thing that can build momentum.  Trump is less popular in the early primary states, and that also could help change the dynamic.   I'd agree that the odds are still on Trump's side, but it's too early to throw in the towel, especially when he's still in legal jeopardy from other cases that haven't yet been filed.   I would not be shocked if the classified document one turns out to hurt him the most, as it is entirely possible that particular case won't just be limited to him having held on to those documents.

If Trump is in the race in the early stages expect him to go nuclear.  It's going to be the ugliest primary probably ever.

[Maj. Bill Martin]

If Trump is in the race in the early stages expect him to go nuclear.  It's going to be the ugliest primary probably ever.

And that could quite easily backfire.

That's why other potential candidates can't be deterred by polls.  Trump tends to get even more undisciplined than usual when under pressure, and I don't think tearing apart other Republicans will work as well in 2024 as it did in 2016.

He needs to be given the chance to screw it up, and to remind people why they were getting sick of him 5 months ago.  But that won't happen unless a legit challenger is there to make him say something really stupid.

[catfish1957]

And that could quite easily backfire.

That's why other potential candidates can't be deterred by polls.  Trump tends to get even more undisciplined than usual when under pressure, and I don't think tearing apart other Republicans will work as well in 2024 as it did in 2016.

He needs to be given the chance to screw it up, and to remind people why they were getting sick of him 5 months ago.  But that won't happen unless a legit challenger is there to make him say something really stupid.

I can say with pretty close to 90% certainty that if somehow Trump is denied the nomination he'll declare as 3rd party.  That is how narcissistic this SOB is.

[Maj. Bill Martin]

I can say with pretty close to 90% certainty that if somehow Trump is denied the nomination he'll declare as 3rd party.  That is how narcissistic this SOB is.

I suspect not, simply because he likely would know what that would do to his legacy.  He'd likely lose some of his own supporters, and every other conservative would despise him.  He's got some smart people around him who would let him know what things would look like after the election, and it probably wouldn't be good for him.  I think it's more likely that he just wouldn't endorse/support the actual winner, and at least implicitly suggest that his supporters should stay home. 

I also think there is a decent chance that -- again, considering his narcissism, he might demand and get a keynote speech to support the winner.  Because after all, there's nothing a narcissist values more than the wild cheers of huge crowds.

Here's why I see that as a possibility.  Imagine all the drama around "will Trump support the nominee, or not".  Tons of media attention, which he would absolutely love.  He then milks that for a speech at the Convention where he enthusiastically endorses the nominee - obviously while patting himself on the back for all the wonderful things he did.   But if he did that, he'd get wild applause.  The entire party would thank him, and he'd be a freaking GOP hero for doing that.  I think that puts him in a much, much better place moving forward than would a doomed third party effort that would end in a whole lot of people really hating him.  It'd be a perfect end for the ultimate showman.

[Kamaji]

I suspect not, simply because he likely would know what that would do to his legacy.  He'd likely lose some of his own supporters, and every other conservative would despise him.  He's got some smart people around him who would let him know what things would look like after the election, and it probably wouldn't be good for him.  I think it's more likely that he just wouldn't endorse/support the actual winner, and at least implicitly suggest that his supporters should stay home. 

I also think there is a decent chance that -- again, considering his narcissism, he might demand and get a keynote speech to support the winner.  Because after all, there's nothing a narcissist values more than the wild cheers of huge crowds.

Here's why I see that as a possibility.  Imagine all the drama around "will Trump support the nominee, or not".  Tons of media attention, which he would absolutely love.  He then milks that for a speech at the Convention where he enthusiastically endorses the nominee - obviously while patting himself on the back for all the wonderful things he did.   But if he did that, he'd get wild applause.  The entire party would thank him, and he'd be a freaking GOP hero for doing that.  I think that puts him in a much, much better place moving forward than would a doomed third party effort that would end in a whole lot of people really hating him.  It'd be a perfect end for the ultimate showman.

Only one fly in that ointment - that's a rational decision, and that may be a problem.

[Maj. Bill Martin]

Only one fly in that ointment - that's a rational decision, and that may be a problem.

If there's one thing that Trump truly understands, it's showmanship.  It's who he is.  He'll want the biggest stage, and the biggest crowds possible.  And if he wants to go out a hero, that would be the way to do it.  Also a good way to guarantee himself a pardon for any federal crimes....

So if someone does beat him for the nomination, the question will be which is greater, his desire to be loved, or his desire to get revenge on those who he believes have wronged him.  It'd be interesting.

[corbe]

   I see yall's point but IMHO, Trump lives in the moment, instant gratification, like a child.  He does not think long term, so I see him seeking a third party if the GOP Voters deny him something he thinks he deserves. 

   * Think his cat fights with Rosie Odonell were awful, just wait.