Author Topic: Estimating the Impact of Immigration on U.S. Population Growth  (Read 150 times)

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Offline rangerrebew

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Estimating the Impact of Immigration on U.S. Population Growth
 
By Steven A. Camarota and Karen Zeigler on March 27, 2023
Download a PDF of this Backgrounder.

Steven A. Camarota is the director of research and Karen Zeigler is a demographer at the Center.

Summary. Using the Census Bureau’s annual American Community Survey (ACS) as the primary data source, this analysis examines immigration’s impact on U.S. population growth from 2001 to 2021, the last year for which ACS data is available. We find that immigration growth accounts for an increasing share of population growth in recent years even though the number of new immigrants arriving fell some from 2017 to 2020 and overall population growth slowed. We estimate that the net migration of immigrants plus births to immigrants was equal to 77 percent of population growth from 2016 to 2021. The primary reason immigration now accounts for such a large share of the increase in the population is that the level of immigration remains very high coupled with the well-documented decline in natural increase among U.S. residents — births minus deaths — even before Covid. The Census Bureau population estimates, which run through the middle of 2022, show that net migration by itself accounted for 80 percent of U.S. population growth from 2021 to 2022. However, even this number is probably an understatement in our view because the method used by the Census Bureau to estimate migration cannot fully capture the scale of the ongoing border crisis and resulting surge of new illegal immigration into the country. We expect natural increase to rebound some as deaths decline significantly and births increase some as the pandemic abates. Even if natural increase rebounds as expected, it is almost certain that immigration will continue to account for the lion’s share of population growth for the foreseeable future, particularly if births to immigrants are included in the calculation.

Introduction
One of the most direct ways immigration impacts a receiving country is by adding to its population. The Center for Immigration Studies, the U.S. Census Bureau, and many others have projected the likely impact of immigration on the future size of the U.S. population. In contrast, this analysis is retrospective; that is, it looks back over the last two decades and estimates the impact of immigration on the overall size of the U.S. population using Census Bureau data. While there are a number of ways to look at the impact of immigration on population growth, no matter how one examines the data it is clear immigration is the determinate factor in U.S. population growth in the last two decades. Further, the share of population growth attributable to immigration has increased in recent years as fertility has slowed and deaths have risen among U.S. residents.

Throughout this report, we use the terms “immigrant” and “foreign-born” interchangeably to mean all persons who were not U.S. citizens at birth. This includes naturalized citizens, legal permanent residents, long-term temporary visitors (e.g. foreign students and guestworkers), and illegal immigrants. Although some share of the foreign-born, particularly illegal immigrants, are missed by the Census Bureau, we do not attempt to adjust the data to account for this issue and instead take the data as reported by the government.

https://cis.org/Report/Estimating-Impact-Immigration-US-Population-Growth
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Offline Fishrrman

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Re: Estimating the Impact of Immigration on U.S. Population Growth
« Reply #1 on: March 28, 2023, 09:59:13 pm »
We don't need long studies to understand what's going on, or the impact of same.

All we need are three words:
"The Great Replacement".