The Grand Rebalance
By Seth Cropsey
March 15, 2023
The Saudi-Iran Normalization Deal Presages Active Chinese Eurasian Contestation
Saudi Arabia and Iran have normalized relations in a move set to modify the regional balance of forces. A Saudi-Iranian peace will not be durable. Indeed, there is no sign that the negotiations have resolved fundamental differences between Riyadh and Tehran, differences that run back decades. Western observers should not be fooled: the deal does nothing to stabilize the Middle East. Instead, it indicates the complete death of the Middle East status quo, and the need for forceful engagement, and a coherent strategy, on the part of the United States.
The concept of a “status-quo power” has significant merit in international relations. Yet terminological precision is crucial. A status-quo power is one that seeks to preserve the current situation, whether that be specific territorial arrangements or a regional or international system. A “revisionist” power, by contrast, seeks to modify or overturn some element of the system as it stands, if not all of it.
The trouble with these intellectual categories is that they require a “status quo” to defend in the first place. For a status quo to exist, there must be some loosely identifiable characteristics of a regional system that can be preserved. In Europe, these arguably still exist. Only Ukraine’s borders have been violated, while European NATO remains intact, and, the economic and political institutions that have evolved over the past 50 years remain in place. Indeed, the defense of Ukraine can be seen as the defense of the geopolitical status quo, because it is through and within Ukraine that Russia seeks to revise the status quo, and has sought to do so since 2014.
https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2023/03/15/the_grand_rebalance_887471.html
