Baseball 2023

[Cyber Liberty]

Texas played better. Last night was pathetic.   

[Polly Ticks]

http://twitter.com/SphereVegas/status/1720112213963551108

[berdie]

Congratulations!!!!!!!

Still, I'd be amiss not providing a tale of the tape.

                             Astros.            rangers
Years in League           62                      63
Winning Pct                .501.                  .476
WS Championships.        2                        1
League Championships    5                       3       
Postseason appearances. 17.                     9

No offense, but there are plenty of us south of you, who take offense in your team calling itself "Texas".  One team clearly has the advantage.

If that's the biggest offense, just change the Houston Astros to Texas Astros, @catfish1957. No biggie. The 'Stros are a great team.

But we finally won!!

[AllThatJazzZ]

Congratulations!!!!!!!

Still, I'd be amiss not providing a tale of the tape.

                             Astros.            rangers
Years in League           62                      63
Winning Pct                .501.                  .476
WS Championships.        2                        1
League Championships    5                       3       
Postseason appearances. 17.                     9

No offense, but there are plenty of us south of you, who take offense in your team calling itself "Texas".  One team clearly has the advantage.

@catfish1957

I decree that the Silver Boot trophy trumps the WS trophy for 2023. 

[AllThatJazzZ]

I understand the Rangers were the only MLB team not to have a "gay pride night." If so, good for them, and congratulations!

@mountaineer

Yes, I remember that. And kudos to them for making that decision. My friend and I were so PO'd about the Astros observing pride night that we opted to skip baseball for that game. It may not sound like much, but we're faithful watchers.

[catfish1957]

@mountaineer

Yes, I remember that. And kudos to them for making that decision. My friend and I were so PO'd about the Astros observing pride night that we opted to skip baseball for that game. It may not sound like much, but we're faithful watchers.

Same here.  My hats off to them for the courage to try to buck the trend.

Second point....  As sad as I am that we fell one series short, if that was needed to send Crusty Baker packing?  It was worth it.

I will never forget or forgive this POS for wearing BLM T shirts a few years ago.

[AllThatJazzZ]

Second point....  As sad as I am that we fell one series short, if that was needed to send Crusty Baker packing?  It was worth it.

I will never forget or forgive this POS for wearing BLM T shirts a few years ago.

@catfish1957

I never knew that about him. It would certainly have changed my estimation of him.

Although he wasn't A.J., I was fine with him until WS 2022. In all of the media hoopla surrounding the event, one discussion revealed that Dusty was troubled by the fact that there were no African Americans playing on either of the teams. What??! What was MLB expected to do? Employ affirmative action to the teams allowed in the WS? I never saw him in the same light after that. 

BTW, only because he wears his race on his shoulder, I expect that any criticism of his managing decisions was assumed by him to be based in racism rather than legitimate differences in strategy.

[AllThatJazzZ]

I thought it would be fun to look at early predictions and compare them with the outcomes. I don't make predictions because it's like trying to hit a bullseye with your eyes closed. You can make educated guesses with all the information you have at the moment you make predictions, but those conditions change throughout the season. Not gonna lie... I NEVER saw the Rangers taking the title, although a few weeks into the season I understood they were a team to be feared. Did anyone else have Rangers at the beginning of the season? Did anyone think the WS game would be Rangers vs. Diamondbacks? 

Opening Day in 5 days...

According to predictive stats at Fan Graphs here is how your team stacks up.  On opening day hope springs eternal.  We all are 0-0.

(Sorry for the spacing)

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds


Team                  % Chance of winning WS      % Chance of making playoffs.     
======             ====                                ====
Braves                  14.8                                   91.9
Padres                  12.0                                   88.0
Yankees.               10.9.                                  83.4
Astros                    8.8.                                  79.2
Mets                      7.9                                   79.0
Blue Jays               6.6                                    71.7
Devil Rays.             5.4                                   66.8
Cardinals               5.3                                    72.1
Dodgers                 5.1                                    68.5
Brewers                 3.1                                    57.5
Mariners.               2.9                                    48.0
Indians.                 2.8                                    54.2
Phillies.                  2.7                                    49.8
Angels                   2.2                                    40.8
Twins                     2.0                                    45.5
Giants                    1.9                                    41.3
Rangers.                 1.7                                    36.1
Red Sox                 1.4                                    30.0
White Sox.              0.9.                                   27.7
Marlins                    0.6                                   22.4
Diamondbacks.        0.4                                   13.6
Oiroles                    0.3                                     8.2
Cubs                       0.2                                    10.6
Pirates.                   0.1                                     4.4
Royals                     0.0.                                    4.5
Tigers                      0.0.                                    3.4
Reds                        0.0                                     0.7
Athletics.                 0.0                                      0.6
Rockies                    0.0                                      0.1
Nationals.                0.0                                      0.1

Yeah I said Indians instead of Guardians on purpose.....

*****************************

Got to admit, that even with all the crappy MLB wokeness, I am starting to feel the spring fever of opening day.....  Anyone want to prognosticate what we will see this year.  Some teams like Toronto really strengthed, while some like the poor Mets just suffered a -4 to 5 WAR with the loss of the closer. Plus as an Astros fan, I know it isn't too smart to bet against Verlander, but at some point he's going to start showing his age.  I think they underperform this year.

From my view point this year including seed:

NL

Byes (ATL 1) (LA 2)

WC (MIL 3) v  (PHI 6)
      (SD 4) v. (SF 5)

AL

Byes (TOR 1) (HOU 2)

WC (MIN 3 v. NYY 6)
      (TB 4 v. SEA 5)

NLDS 

ATL over PHI
SD over LA

ALDS

TOR over NYY
SEA over HOU. (Yeah, my team, but this team has been subject to bouts of complacency that haunts them sometimes). Seattle would love nothing better to get revenge and rub it in our faces.

LCS

SD over ATL
TOR over SEA

WS

SD over TOR. (And FOX and MLB again are aghast at ratings due to teams in the WS

[AllThatJazzZ]

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/astros-to-name-joe-espada-manager-houston-bench-coach-promoted-to-top-job-after-dusty-baker-retires/

I'm great with this!

[Polly Ticks]

I thought it would be fun to look at early predictions and compare them with the outcomes. I don't make predictions because it's like trying to hit a bullseye with your eyes closed. You can make educated guesses with all the information you have at the moment you make predictions, but those conditions change throughout the season.

You are exactly right about predictions and changing conditions and such.  Having said that, our friend @catfish1957 actually did quite well with at least one of his prognostications:

And FOX and MLB again are aghast at ratings due to teams in the WS

[catfish1957]

It's official..... The A's are relocating to Vegas.

No temptation for gambling scandals of course.  /s.

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2023/nov/16/oakland-as-set-to-move-to-vegas-after-mlb-owners-approve-relocation

[AllThatJazzZ]

It's official..... The A's are relocating to Vegas.

No temptation for gambling scandals of course.  /s.

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2023/nov/16/oakland-as-set-to-move-to-vegas-after-mlb-owners-approve-relocation

I hope the new fans don't have a drum brigade. What a miserable experience to watch those games. Unless the game was a pivotal one, I mostly chose to skip A's games.

[Cyber Liberty]

I hope the new fans don't have a drum brigade. What a miserable experience to watch those games. Unless the game was a pivotal one, I mostly chose to skip A's games.

Now the Diamondbacks are no longer the team in closest proximity to me!  Vegas is a 90 minute drive from here.

[AllThatJazzZ]

Up for discussion:

Where will Ohtani end up next year?

[catfish1957]

Up for discussion:

Where will Ohtani end up next year?

Great question.   My early prognistication is either Yankees or Dodgers at somewhere in the vicinity of 10/$600M


I think a lot of how this pans out is how strong and good he comes out of surgery rehab.

[catfish1957]

Great question.   My early prognistication is either Yankees or Dodgers at somewhere in the vicinity of 10/$600M


I think a lot of how this pans out is how strong and good he comes out of surgery rehab.

Latest on the Ohtani front......

I still have my money on the Stankees.   

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/38841002/shohei-ohtani-free-agent-latest-news-updates-analysis

[AllThatJazzZ]

Latest on the Ohtani front......

I still have my money on the Stankees.   

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/38841002/shohei-ohtani-free-agent-latest-news-updates-analysis

@catfish1957

They've got Soto now. I don't think they get Ohtani. I'm thinking LAD.

[catfish1957]

@catfish1957

They've got Soto now. I don't think they get Ohtani. I'm thinking LAD.

Especially since the Dodgers already have strong arms anyway, and could wait an additonal year of Ohtani's pitching arm rehab.  Good call, especially since Oriental players typically prefer west coast teams (i.e closer to home)

[AllThatJazzZ]

Especially since the Dodgers already have strong arms anyway, and could wait an additonal year of Ohtani's pitching arm rehab.  Good call, especially since Oriental players typically prefer west coast teams (i.e closer to home)

@catfish1957

"Sources say" we were both wrong.

https://dodgersnation.com/shohei-ohtani-to-sign-with-toronto-blue-jays-over-los-angeles-dodgers-sources/2023/12/08/

[cato potatoe]

$700M is a staggering contact for a 30 yr old with a bad elbow.  The Dodgers are banking on marketability, which is fine by me.

I will be curious to see where Yamamoto lands after this deal.

[catfish1957]

$700M is a staggering contact for a 30 yr old with a bad elbow.  The Dodgers are banking on marketability, which is fine by me.

I will be curious to see where Yamamoto lands after this deal.

You've got a good assertion there.  In my book, no player is worth 7/10 of a Billion Dollars.  MLB and Teams OTOH in general , are very quiet, and almost secretive on how much the make in Merch. I'll bet we'd be shocked.

[AllThatJazzZ]

Jaw-dropping amount of $$$. 

Baseball is to the point that it can only be enjoyed by the rich. I went to MMP once back in 2019. Didn't buy any refreshments. I don't buy any MLB merch since (1) Rob Manfred is a jerk, (2) the All-Star game got pulled from Atlanta.

[cato potatoe]

You've got a good assertion there.  In my book, no player is worth 7/10 of a Billion Dollars.  MLB and Teams OTOH in general , are very quiet, and almost secretive on how much the make in Merch. I'll bet we'd be shocked.

The Braves are the only publicly owned team, so they provide some transparency.  Here are the Q3 financials:
https://www.bravesholdings.com/investors/news-events/press-releases/detail/187/atlanta-braves-holdings-reports-third-quarter-2023
Retail and licensing amounted to $45M through September. 

I think the Dodgers can anticipate several million dollars a year from Ohtani merchandise, with better ratings and possibly a stronger bargaining position on their next TV deal.  It's a massive gamble, but their organization is one of the few that could recover if it goes south.

[catfish1957]

The Braves are the only publicly owned team, so they provide some transparency.  Here are the Q3 financials:
https://www.bravesholdings.com/investors/news-events/press-releases/detail/187/atlanta-braves-holdings-reports-third-quarter-2023
Retail and licensing amounted to $45M through September. 

I think the Dodgers can anticipate several million dollars a year from Ohtani merchandise, with better ratings and possibly a stronger bargaining position on their next TV deal.  It's a massive gamble, but their organization is one of the few that could recover if it goes south.

If you count all the teams, that's what I'd guess to be roughly about a Billion. That's  actually less than I expected.  Hell, I've bought at least $500 'Stros WS merchandise the past 7 or 8 years.

[Elderberry]

Matt Taibbi
@mtaibbi
·
I'm glad Shohei Ohtani get paid because he deserves it, but soon the best players will be on two teams owned by Lockheed-Martin and Exxon-Mobil, tickets will cost $9000, and fans will take out home equity loans to pay for hot dogs. @MLB has problems