2024 Is Make or Break for the Senate GOPColumn: The map favors Republicans. Will it be enough?Matthew Continetti
February 17, 2023Senate Republicans begin the 2024 campaign cycle with an advantage. They need a net gain of two seats (or one if the GOP wins the presidency) to take control of the chamber. And they have plenty of targets. Of the 34 seats up for grabs, two-thirds are held by Democrats or by independents who caucus with Democrats. Republicans love this map.
Understandably so. Democrats must defend three seats in states that backed Donald Trump by considerable margins in both 2016 and 2020. The Democrats also must defend five seats in states that President Joe Biden won by less than 5 percent. In contrast, there are no Republican incumbents from Biden states and just two whose previous election margins were below 5 percent. Ted Cruz of Texas and Rick Scott of Florida come from states that Trump won twice and are more than likely to be red next year as well.
At first glance, then, Republicans are on their way to capturing the Senate. But looks can be deceiving. The last election cycle also seemed promising for Senate Republicans. They held 50 seats, enjoyed a favorable political environment, and eyed potential pickups in three states that Trump lost narrowly in 2020. They ended up losing one seat and have been squabbling with each other ever since.
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https://freebeacon.com/politics/make-or-break-for-the-senate-gop/
