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Ukraine - From a Trump Voter Who Has Been There
Kamaji:
Ukraine 3 thread: https://www.gopbriefingroom.com/index.php/topic,478214.0.html
Ukraine 2 thread (locked): https://www.gopbriefingroom.com/index.php/topic,468874.0.html
Ukraine thread (locked): https://www.gopbriefingroom.com/index.php/topic,462610.0.html
starbuck_archer:
--- Quote from: Kamaji on January 19, 2023, 08:24:03 pm ---No, actually, it's not. It's not "my" thread, and most of the posts are not mine. Read the posts by everyone else, including @Hoodat
But then, you're just a Russian mole, so we all know you won't.
--- End quote ---
You need to get your story straight: I am a Russian mole advocating for Ukraine? Or a deep state shill being paid to infiltrate GOP Briefing Room? Or a Ukrainian Agent working with the Biden family to corruptly funnel money through Ukraine?
I need to be clear: I am a Russian mole advcating against Russia and in favor of the Ukrainian cause?
Mod2:
Moved to appropriate category
Free Vulcan:
--- Quote from: starbuck_archer on January 19, 2023, 08:11:58 pm ---Okay, so China will react differently.
What will they do different from my analysis?
Why is your analysis correct ?
--- End quote ---
First of all, let's back up the truck because I've made no analysis whatsoever. Nice try though.
China will take in a wide array of considerations before they make a move on Taiwan, and what kind if they do.
If American weakness alone was the issue, they already got that signal in Afghanistan and Africa, as in both places they have advanced their interests because we've left doors wide open. If that was the only factor they would be in Taiwan right now.
But they will take into consideration that we have been at arms length in the Ukraine conflict. We have committed none of our forces directly, we haven't given Ukraine any serious weapons systems, and at least half that money is going down corrupt rabbit holes.
Yet, it's blunted the Russian offensive. Putin wrongly assumed we'd do nothing as we did in the Crimea, but he miscalculated. The Chinese have taken note of that.
China knows if they try and occupy Taiwan there will most likely be direct American military action, unless they have Sniffy so paid off he demurs. But again if they did, they would already be there. They talk a big game, but their forces are relatively untested.
I say relatively because they've have tested them in skirmishes against India, and that came out mostly a draw. That will give them pause against the US, because while they may have all the new shiny toys from the weapons systems they stole from us, they don't have our experience.
Which is key, because Taiwan is 100 miles away, and China hasn't proven that it can project force at all. We can do so still, half way around the world. Which is why they need to be careful because they don't want to pull a Pearl Harbor type scenario on us - they know the consequences of that.
That leaves them pretty boxed in.
But we are forgetting the irrational. China may go after Taiwan anyway, not because of US weakness, but because they are cocky to the point of crazy. I suspect though they are going to try other ways that don't involve a direct confrontation but that will completely undermine us.
The reality is we simply don't know what they're going to do or what they're thinking. They want to dominate the world so badly that they may simply overreach, or worse go scorched earth regardless of anything having to do with the US.
That is the far more dangerous scenario, is an anarchic, asymmetric and unilateral response that burns the whole damn thing down.
starbuck_archer:
--- Quote from: Free Vulcan on January 19, 2023, 08:39:54 pm ---First of all, let's back up the truck because I've made no analysis whatsoever. Nice try though.
China will take in a wide array of considerations before they make a move on Taiwan, and what kind if they do.
If American weakness alone was the issue, they already got that signal in Afghanistan and Africa, as in both places they have advanced their interests because we've left doors wide open. If that was the only factor they would be in Taiwan right now.
But they will take into consideration that we have been at arms length in the Ukraine conflict. We have committed none of our forces directly, we haven't given Ukraine any serious weapons systems, and at least half that money is going down corrupt rabbit holes.
Yet, it's blunted the Russian offensive. Putin wrongly assumed we'd do nothing as we did in the Crimea, but he miscalculated. The Chinese have taken note of that.
China knows if they try and occupy Taiwan there will most likely be direct American military action, unless they have Sniffy so paid off he demurs. But again if they did, they would already be there. They talk a big game, but their forces are relatively untested.
I say relatively because they've have tested them in skirmishes against India, and that came out mostly a draw. That will give them pause against the US, because while they may have all the new shiny toys from the weapons systems they stole from us, they don't have our experience.
Which is key, because Taiwan is 100 miles away, and China hasn't proven that it can project force at all. We can do so still, half way around the world. Which is why they need to be careful because they don't want to pull a Pearl Harbor type scenario on us - they know the consequences of that.
That leaves them pretty boxed in.
But we are forgetting the irrational. China may go after Taiwan anyway, not because of US weakness, but because they are cocky to the point of crazy. I suspect though they are going to try other ways that don't involve a direct confrontation but that will completely undermine us.
The reality is we simply don't know what they're going to do or what they're thinking. They want to dominate the world so badly that they may simply overreach, or worse go scorched earth regardless of anything having to do with the US.
That is the far more dangerous scenario, is an anarchic, asymmetric and unilateral response that burns the whole damn thing down.
--- End quote ---
I like your analysis, and I think it has a lot of merit: the Chinese are students of Tsun Tsu, and the Communists have been able to exercise patience in achieving their goals (see: the Chinese Civil war and the CBI theater in WWII). They don't think like Westerners: this was shown in the massive cultural gap between Japan and the US in WWII: even men like Isoroku Yamanoto who attended Harvard didn't have a firm grasp of American culture.
The thing I fear about China is the same thing I feared about Putin: Before the war, it was common for me to say "I don't worry if Putin acts smart: he knows a general European war is bad for Russia, and WWIII even worse."
The problem is that Putin miscalculated in Ukraine. Badly. Putin was not a big threat to the US when he was acting rationally. When he makes mistakes in his judgement is when he is dangerous (edit).
I should have been more clear: A US defeat in Ukraine is no catastrophic defeat like 1905 was for Russia. However, my concern is that given the current relative instability in China (which usually...usually..comes to nothing) coupled with a US failure in Ukraine that is *perceived* to be a greater weakness than it already is. China makes mistakes, just like Republicans do in mid terms.
To address your point on Africa and Afghanistan directly: those were colonial conflicts that weren't in Europe. Losing those is like the British losing Isandlwana or Elphinstone's expedition to Afghanistan: bad, but not catastrophic to the British Empire.
Russia's loss to Japan in 1905 however was nearly catastropic, and indirectly led to events in 1917. Losing in Europe just isn't the same as losing in Asia or Africa.
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