These counties will decide who wins the Georgia Senate runoff
by Caroline Vakil - 12/05/22 6:00 AM ET
Georgia voters are heading to the polls one more time to weigh in on the consequential election between Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) and Republican Herschel Walker, and all eyes are on key counties in the Peach State to see how they perform.
Warnock outperformed Georgia gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams in predominately Democratic counties like DeKalb, Fulton and Clayton. Meanwhile, Walker underperformed Gov. Brian Kemp (R) in predominately GOP counties like Forsyth, Cherokee and Hall. Experts say the key test will be how well both campaigns turn out those reliably blue and red counties.
“If there is anything to look at, I would be paying attention to if we see anemic turnout in traditionally Republican areas versus anemic turnout in traditionally Democratic areas, because whichever group has the most anemic turnout is probably going to be the side that loses,” said Andra Gillespie, a political science professor at Emory University.
Charles Bullock, a political science professor at the University of Georgia, said that Democrats’ focus on the large metro counties will be especially important.
“For a Democrat, that’s absolutely essential. Can’t make up the votes anyplace else,” he said.
Both candidates must contend with potential voter fatigue, the possibility that voters might view the race as less consequential given that Democrats have secured their Senate majority for the next session and a tighter time frame to rev up their bases. Campaigns now have only a month to mobilize voters after the state moved the runoff election from January to December.
Walker faces additional hurdles, like the fact that Kemp’s name will not be on the ballot.
“I think the question for Democrats or Republicans is how do you get back those people who voted for Brian Kemp but could not or would not vote for Herschel Walker? And I think the challenge for Republicans is you can’t make the argument that control of the Senate is up for grabs,” said Gillespie.
Given that voters cannot register by party in Georgia, it’s hard to say how many Republicans and Democrats have voted in some of these counties. Data from the Democratic data firm TargetSmart suggests that, as of Friday morning, 39 percent of the share of residents who had voted so far in the runoff were Republicans and 53 percent were Democrats.
Here’s a look at the counties to watch for ahead of Tuesday’s Senate runoff.
For Democrats: DeKalb, Fulton, Clayton counties
For Republicans: Cherokee, Forsyth, Hall counties
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https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3760234-these-counties-will-decide-who-wins-the-georgia-senate-runoff/
