November 30, 2022
Election Predictions and Other Mistakes
By John Kudla
I, along with many other people, predicted a Republican wave for the midterm elections. Did it happen? In a few places like Florida, Ohio, and a few congressional districts in New York? Yes. In most other places, no.
I think there are some clear, rational explanations for this. However, if you expect me to start by blaming Donald Trump, you can go back to reading the New York Times or watching CNN.
How did I do pretending to be Karl Rove? In the Senate, righteously awful. I had one win, Vance in Ohio, five losses, and one no-decision: Walker in Georgia. I was slightly better in the governor's races, with four correct and six incorrect. In hindsight, Mastriano in the Pennsylvania governor's race and Smiley for the Senate in Washington were both a stretch. I look like a fool for letting wave fever get to me. The rest were more rational choices based on the polls.
In almost every contest I called, the RealClearPolitics polling averages underestimated Democrat strength. There were a few races where Republicans outperformed the averages, such as DeSantis and Rubio in Florida, Stitt in Oklahoma, and Zeldin in New York, but that was about it.
Why were the polls off so badly in this election?
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https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2022/11/_election_predictions_and_other_mistakes.html
