November 25, 2022
Surprised by the Midterm Election Results? Take a Look at the Data
By Joe Fried
For many Republicans, the final midterm election results were surprising— especially in the states of Arizona, Nevada, and Pennsylvania. Based on polling, it looked likely that Kari Lake, Adam Laxalt, and Mehmet Oz would win their contests. I believe that there are only three likely explanations for the unexpected results: late campaign surges, polling error, or aggressive ballot-harvesting.
A late surge?
Some Republicans are falling for an illogical narrative put forth by Democrats and the mainstream media. It goes like this: Although Republican candidates were higher in the polls, at the last minute people voted for Democrats because:
they feared the end of democracy
they hated Donald Trump
they were angered by the Dobbs abortion decision
they saw more anti-Republican campaign ads, due to financing differences
they were turned off by fighting during the primaries
they weren’t impressed by the poor quality GOP candidates
Certainly, these were real and very potent factors for many if not all Democrats, and for some independents. However, they were all “baked into the cake” long before the election and long before pre-election voter polls were administered. They were not last-minute issues.
I can think of a couple significant last-minute campaign developments, but they worked against the Democrats— not for them. Many pundits thought John Fetterman’s late October debate performance would put him into a political death spiral. Indeed, he was polling lower than Oz, just before the election. However, he ended up winning by over 4 points— somehow.
more interesting info here
https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2022/11/surprised_by_the_midterm_election_results_take_a_look_at_the_data.html
