Author Topic: Surprised by the Midterm Election Results? Take a Look at the Data  (Read 641 times)

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Offline mystery-ak

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November 25, 2022
Surprised by the Midterm Election Results? Take a Look at the Data
By Joe Fried

For many Republicans, the final midterm election results were surprising— especially in the states of Arizona, Nevada, and Pennsylvania. Based on polling, it looked likely that Kari Lake, Adam Laxalt, and Mehmet Oz would win their contests. I believe that there are only three likely explanations for the unexpected results: late campaign surges, polling error, or aggressive ballot-harvesting.

A late surge?

Some Republicans are falling for an illogical narrative put forth by Democrats and the mainstream media. It goes like this: Although Republican candidates were higher in the polls, at the last minute people voted for Democrats because:

    they feared the end of democracy
    they hated Donald Trump
    they were angered by the Dobbs abortion decision
    they saw more anti-Republican campaign ads, due to financing differences
    they were turned off by fighting during the primaries
    they weren’t impressed by the poor quality GOP candidates

Certainly, these were real and very potent factors for many if not all Democrats, and for some independents. However, they were all “baked into the cake” long before the election and long before pre-election voter polls were administered. They were not last-minute issues.

I can think of a couple significant last-minute campaign developments, but they worked against the Democrats— not for them. Many pundits thought John Fetterman’s late October debate performance would put him into a political death spiral. Indeed, he was polling lower than Oz, just before the election. However, he ended up winning by over 4 points— somehow.

more interesting info here
https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2022/11/surprised_by_the_midterm_election_results_take_a_look_at_the_data.html
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Online HikerGuy83

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Re: Surprised by the Midterm Election Results? Take a Look at the Data
« Reply #1 on: November 25, 2022, 09:37:06 pm »
How about....the polling was not accurate ?

I was certainly touting Lake as a sure fire winner and a red wave to kick the democrats asses......on another board. 

I almost lost a bet over the house flipping.

Polls no longer mean much to me.
« Last Edit: November 25, 2022, 09:38:24 pm by HikerGuy83 »

Offline Bigun

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Re: Surprised by the Midterm Election Results? Take a Look at the Data
« Reply #2 on: November 25, 2022, 09:49:54 pm »
How about....the polling was not accurate ?

I was certainly touting Lake as a sure fire winner and a red wave to kick the democrats asses......on another board. 

I almost lost a bet over the house flipping.

Polls no longer mean much to me.

No way to poll lawless election personnel
"I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo.

"So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us."
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Online Smokin Joe

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Re: Surprised by the Midterm Election Results? Take a Look at the Data
« Reply #3 on: November 25, 2022, 10:29:27 pm »
How about....the polling was not accurate ?

I was certainly touting Lake as a sure fire winner and a red wave to kick the democrats asses......on another board. 

I almost lost a bet over the house flipping.

Polls no longer mean much to me.
Polls are used to set the point spread in the minds of the public, so those real squeakers' won't seem out of line. They may be 5-10 points different before the cheat, but will come close to what people actually expect.
I think they can also be used to lull the opposition into complacency, leaving them points behind in the actual ballots because turnout was low.

Considering the quality of questions on the last poll someone tried to get me to take, questions like "Are you for commonsense gun control or slaughter in the streets?" or "Have you quit kicking your dog yet?" I simply refrain from responding.
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Offline jafo2010

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Re: Surprised by the Midterm Election Results? Take a Look at the Data
« Reply #4 on: November 26, 2022, 02:58:43 pm »
Or...
The elections were fixed!

Not hard to believe after witnessing the events in 2020, which was definitely fixed.  Anyone that denies it is a total moron.

Until we end electronic voting, our republic is dead.  We are marching rapidly to a soviet style governance.  No joke.  Freedom is dissipating like steam.