November 19, 2022
The Sort of Red Wave We Got
By William Manning
On November 8, Republicans were dreaming of catching a red wave that would carry them to victory. The next day, Democrats snickered at the faint red stream trickling by. After putting away their surfboards, Republicans scratched their heads in wonder. Democrats had botched the withdrawal from Afghanistan, encouraged inflation with excessive spending, implemented an egregious energy policy, rarely encountered a criminal they wouldn't coddle, and supported the proliferation of wokeism. Republicans believed they were dealt a winning hand and were anxious to cash in by flipping blue seats to red. When the players laid down their hands, there were precious few chips to rake in. What happened?
The media conduct opinion polls to inform the public. Opinion polls "are an assessment of public opinion obtained by questioning a representative sample." These polls are also used by the media to generate interest and fuel their narrative. It is up to consumers to determine whether the information they are ingesting is relevant to ongoing events or entertainment produced to increase ratings and advertising revenue for media outlets. The media were happy to push the red wave narrative to keep consumers engaged. Surfboard sales skyrocketed.
The last RealClearPolitics (RCP) polling average projected a pickup of three Senate seats for Republicans. RCP picked Masters in Arizona (0.3% lead in the last poll), Laxalt in Nevada (3.4% lead), and Walker in Georgia (1.4% lead) to flip Democrat seats. Walker may still win his seat in a runoff, but the other two candidates lost. RCP also picked Oz to win the Senate seat in Pennsylvania. Oz was up 0.4% in the last poll. Excepting Laxalt, these candidates were within the polls' margin of error. To pick them all was risky. It is likely that employees of RCP were expecting these candidates to ride a red wave to victory because the polls were a little sketchy.
RCP predictions in the House races were reasonably close. The site predicted a Republican majority of 227 seats, a pickup of 15. The generic congressional ballot gave the GOP a 2.5% advantage going into the election. In 2020, Republicans held all their House seats while picking up 14, an unusually good year, considering that a Democrat won the presidential election. After doing well in 2020, the expectation of significant House gains in 2022 was unreasonable. Republicans received a 3% advantage in the national House vote this year, garnering 3.5 million more raw votes than Democrats. This is a bit of a red wave.
We've been informed by politicians and media pundits that candidate quality makes a difference in elections. What a brilliant notion! Articulate, charismatic candidates should enjoy an advantage over less talented opponents. There are exceptions to this notion, which might be viewed as a paradox. Sometimes the best candidate doesn't win.
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https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2022/11/the_sort_of_red_wave_we_got.html
