Not one climate model predicts global temperature; all predict too much warming

[Elderberry]

Behind The Black 11/9/2022

Even as we wait for the final results in numerous elections yesterday, I thought I would throw the chart to the right out for my readers to digest.

The chart was created by climate scientist Roy Spencer of the University of Alabama, who has also been one of the principal investigators for one of NASA climate satellites.

    As seen in the accompanying plot, 50-year (1973-2022) summer (June/July/August) temperature trends for the contiguous 48 U.S. states from 36 CMIP-6 climate model experiments average nearly twice the warming rate as observed by the NOAA climate division dataset.

…The official NOAA observations produce a 50-year summer temperature trend of +0.26 C/decade for the U.S., while the model trends range from +0.28 to +0.71 C/decade.

More: https://behindtheblack.com/behind-the-black/points-of-information/not-one-climate-model-predicts-global-temperature-all-predict-too-much-warming/

[The_Reader_David]

All the models are build assuming recent changes are driven by greenhouse gas concentrations.  All of them understate the effect of soot deposition on the cryosphere.  All of them are trying to do long-term predictions on a chaotic dynamical system (already impossible without complete initial data) for which we don't know all the inputs and linkages.  GIGO.

It would be interesting to turn modern AI loose on the problem of climate modeling -- see what the version that best retrodicts the observed data comes up with for predictions.  They'd still be something to take with a whole shaker full of salt, since it's still a chaotic dynamical system, but at least it wouldn't be driven by dubious assumptions.