The 2022 Midterm Elections: What the Historical Data Suggest.History suggests Democratic loss of control of both House and Senate.By John T. WoolleyIn the 22 midterm elections from 1934 -2018, the President's party has averaged a loss of 28 House seats and four Senate seats. The president’s party gained seats in the House only three times, but gained seats in the Senate on six occasions. The president’s party has gained seats in both houses only twice.
The incumbent president’s ability to launch new major policy initiatives would be greatly weakened under divided government. If the Democrats lose control of either House, the Administration can expect to be the target of numerous disruptive congressional inquiries.
Using the data we discuss below (and provide here) we would expect Democratic seat losses of around 30 in the House and 3 in the Senate. There are large error bounds around these estimates. The prediction range includes the possibility of a narrow Democratic gain in the Senate, but loss of the majority in the House seems likely. Graphs below show the two-variable relationships.
Democrats have a 9 seat margin currently in the House (with four seats vacant) and the parties are tied in the Senate. A Democratic loss in the House of fewer than 12 seats would be very unexpected.
Like many midterm projections, these estimates are based on aggregated data. There is no measure of current national controversies (for example, abortion or Trump-related litigation controversies). Both will affect turnout. Nor do we have any explicit measure of conditions and candidates in specific elections. Turnout is likely to be larger than normal, and usually that would be expected to favor the Democrats.
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https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/analyses/the-2022-midterm-elections-what-the-historical-data-suggestH/T
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