October 31, 2022
What will the Midterm results say?
By James L. Swofford
With the midterm elections coming up some commentators are already speculating if there will there be a GOP wave or maybe even a GOP tsunami. In the MainStream Media (MSM) they would like nothing better than to be able to say it was just a Republican year, typical of the first midterm with any president. So, before election results come in, it is helpful to establish what the background for this election is and what would constitute a year, a wave, or a tsunami for the Republicans.
The background of this election is that the Senate is evenly split at 50-50 and the House is very narrowly divided, 222 Democrats to 212 Republicans with one vacancy. The president election of 2020 was quite unusual in that an incumbent president reportedly lost, while his party gained seats in the House. This is taken by many commentators to mean there are fewer in-play House seats this year that the GOP could gain.
What would constitute a GOP year? What results would allow the MSM to at least semi-honestly claim it was just a typical midterm? Since WWII in the first midterm of a presidency, the party of president has on average lost about 28 seats in the House and about 1.5 seats in the Senate. That implies that if the Republicans gain fewer than two Senate seats and fewer than 30 in the House one might just call it a typical midterm, though the caveat about there being fewer in play House seats should be kept in mind. The bottom line is if the GOP wins anything less than 240 seats in the House and 52 seats in the Senate the MSM will certainly argue that such results are typical for any President’s first midterm elections.
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https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2022/10/what_will_the_midterm_results_say.html
