October 26, 2022
What the polling tells us about the state of the races
By Richard Baehr
Certain things seem clear, and other things are unsettled. Republicans seem to have momentum, both in House and in Senate races. If you don't believe me, look at Nate Silver's models and forecasts at fivethirtyeight.com. Nate Silver's model predicts the chances of a GOP takeover of the House are 81%. Two weeks ago, the GOP chances for control were 68% according to him.
Most forecasts (RCP, Larry Sabato, Cook Political Report, 538) project final House numbers for the GOP in a range of 230 to 240. Redistricting, which was played to the hilt in many states by both parties to the extent they could, has limited the number of competitive races. Ohio and Illinois are probably the two states with the most partisan redistricting.
House races may produce some strange results this year. The Democrats could win and hold Alaska's only House seat. A Republican could win a House seat in Rhode Island.
For the Senate, Silver has GOP chances at 45%, 29% two weeks ago. In other words, the GOP looks likely to win the House, and Senate control is very much a tossup. Silver's model incorporates, among other factors, polling results (higher weights to more recent polls, and those with greater historic accuracy) and state or district voting history.
At the moment, many Senate races are in play. Democrat-held seats that could shift include Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and New Hampshire. Washington State and Colorado are uphill for Republicans, but very good candidates have made these races competitive. GOP-held seats in play include Ohio, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and maybe Utah and Iowa.
more
https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2022/10/what_the_polling_tells_us_about_the_state_of_the_races.html
