Independents Hold Key To 2022 GOP ‘Red
Wave’: I&I/TIPP Poll
Issues & Insights, by Terry Jones Despite both major parties claiming they have an advantage, the race for control of Congress appears to be a dead heat, the most recent I&I/TIPP data show. But there’s a big potential surprise element that could tilt the balance sharply: Nearly one out of every seven registered voters, or 15%, are “not sure” whom they’ll vote for.
The online poll of 1,158 voters across the country was taken from October 5-7, with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 points.
The poll asked those responding: “What is your preference for the outcome of this November’s congressional elections?”
Answers showed the sharp division among the electorate, with 42% saying they would prefer “a Congress controlled by Republicans,” and 43% saying they preferred “a Congress controlled by Democrats.” The results are within the poll’s margin of error of 2.9 percentage points.
Breaking it down by party, 84% of Democrats said they wanted their party to maintain control. For Republicans, the share was even larger for their own party: 90%.
But here’s where it gets interesting: 10% of Democrats say they want Republicans to have control, versus just 5% of Republicans saying they would prefer Democrats. The wild card in this hand are the independents: 31% preferred Republicans, versus 30% who preferred the Democrats.
That’s only 61%. What about the rest? 39%, a huge share of the independents, say they’re “not sure.” The comparable number for both Democrats and the GOP is 6%.
In short, the 39% of independents who are uncertain is a key battleground for both parties over the next two weeks. The party with the greatest success in gaining uncommitted independents will almost certainly control Congress.
Historically, “undecided” voters tend to break against the incumbents in favor of challengers. They are “undecided” because they are skeptical about the incumbent.
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https://issuesinsights.com/2022/10/24/independents-hold-key-to-2022-gop-red-wave-ii-tipp-poll/
