100% probability of U.S. recession in coming year, according to Bloomberg Economics forecast model
Provided by Dow Jones
Oct 18, 2022 7:48 AM CDT
Thomas Barrabi
A separate Bloomberg survey of 42 economists predicts the probability of a recession over the next 12 months now stands at 60%, up from 50% a month earlier
The U.S. economy falling into recession within the next 12 months is a virtual certainty, according to the latest Bloomberg Economics forecast model released on Monday.
The dire projection surfaced just weeks before national midterm elections that will determine control of Congress. Just a week ago, President Joe Biden said a recession in the U.S. was unlikely and said any such downturn would be "very slight" if it did occur.
Bloomberg Economics' latest statistical projections showed a 100% probability of a recession within the next 12 months as the U.S. economy contends with decades-high inflation, Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes and mounting geopolitical tensions.
The likelihood of a recession was 65% in the Bloomberg model's most recent previous update. Generated by economists Anna Wong and Eliza Winger, the model utilizes 13 macroeconomic and financial indicators to assess the odds of a downturn from one month to two years in the future.
A separate Bloomberg survey of 42 economists predicts the probability of a recession over the next 12 months now stands at 60%, up from 50% a month earlier.
The Bloomberg Economics model showed a 25% probability of a recession hitting even sooner -- within the next 10 months -- up from 0% in the previous release.
Fears of a deep recession have surged in recent months as the Fed hikes interest rates in a bid to cool inflation. Investors believe the Fed risks "overtightening" monetary policy in reaction to higher prices and driving the economy into a sustained downturn.
more
https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20221018181/100-probability-of-us-recession-in-coming-year-according-to-bloomberg-economics-forecast-model
