By Jim Geraghty
September 27, 2022 9:38 AM
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On the menu today: As the midterm elections get closer, it’s worth keeping some key lessons in mind while perusing the latest polls. First, a recent ABC News/Washington Post poll buried the lead, which shows Republicans well ahead in the key swing districts — and this tells us a lot more than the usual generic-ballot numbers. Second, it’s getting a little late in the cycle for polls of registered voters, but they keep showing up, and there’s good reason to think that the polls are using a way-too-generous definition of a “likely voter.” Third, even if the midterm outlook isn’t as good for Republicans as it was in the early summer, that doesn’t mean the outlook is bad. And finally, NBC News commentator Jen Psaki, Biden’s former White House press secretary, offers some surprisingly blunt truth for her party and former boss.
Checking the Numbers . . .
There are a few things to keep in mind about polling as the days grow shorter and September turns to October:
One: The generic-ballot question isn’t focused on the districts that matter most.
The generic-ballot question is an imperfect measurement because it’s just asking people across the country whether they’re voting for Republicans or Democrats. We don’t know if they live in a swing district, a heavily Democratic district, or a heavily Republican district. When we want to know which party is going to control the House, we care a lot about those swing districts and districts that lean just a little toward one party or the other. We don’t care that much about New York’s 14th congressional district because we know Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is getting reelected by a wide margin. We don’t care that much about Wyoming’s lone House seat because we know Harriet Hageman is going to win it by a wide margin. And we don’t really care about the margins in those safe districts. If a Democrat wins a heavily Democratic-leaning district with 90 percent instead of 60 percent, that doesn’t change anything.
RealClearPolitics rates 32 House races as “toss ups.” It rate s22 districts as “lean Republican,” 17 as “likely Republican,” and 179 as safe Republican. It classifies 17 districts as “lean Democratic,” 20 seats as “likely Democratic,” and 185 seats as safe Democratic. One of the reasons analysts feel fairly comfortable projecting that the GOP will win the House is that even if you put all of the “toss up” districts in the Democratic pile, Republicans still have a bare majority of 218 seats.
It’s a similar story at FiveThirtyEight, although it puts only 13 seats in the “toss up” category. The site rates 195 seats as solid Republican, 14 as likely Republican, and five as lean Republican — showing Republicans knocking on the door of a majority at 214 seats. FiveThirtyEight rates 167 seats as solid Democrat, 30 as likely Democrat, and twelve as lean Democrat.
When you see someone talk up Democrats’ chances of keeping the House, that’s mostly wish-casting. Democrats need to win just about every competitive seat and not have any lean-Democrat seats slip through their fingers.
If anything, the numbers point to Republicans’ winning a slew of those competitive seats. The most recent ABC News/Washington Post poll this weekend buried the lead*:
Among those living in congressional districts that are rated as at least somewhat competitive by ABC’s FiveThirtyEight (neither solid Republican nor solid Democratic), registered voters favor Republican candidates by a wide 55-34 percent — nearly as big as the Republican lead in solid GOP districts (+24 points). Democrats lead by 35 points in solid Democratic districts, pointing to a potential overvote where they’re most prevalent.
If Republicans really are leading in competitive districts by 21 percentage points, then this is indeed a red-wave election, and we should see some unexpected Democratic losses.
My back-of-the-envelope math suggests that this would come out to a GOP majority of 235 seats — a pickup of 21 districts.
more
https://www.nationalreview.com/the-morning-jolt/midterm-polls-look-better-for-republicans-than-weve-been-led-to-believe/
