Hurricane Ian Thread

[Kamaji]

Watch out for that knife in your back, Ron.

Indeed.  And no fake hugs, either, like Christie in NJ with Obama. 

[cato potatoe]

Ian has just increased to 155 mph sustained.  Slight leftward wobble, headed toward Bradenton at the moment.  I hope some dry air entrains before the eyewall makes it to shore, otherwise, this is going to be catastrophic. 

[catfish1957]

Ian has just increased to 155 mph sustained.  Slight leftward wobble, headed toward Bradenton at the moment.  I hope some dry air entrains before the eyewall makes it to shore, otherwise, this is going to be catastrophic.

If it maintains this windspeed it would make it #4 in FL History, as far as strength of winds.  #9 in intensity @ 937mb

1. Labor Day Storm of 1935- 185 mph
2. Andrew- 1992- 165 mph
3. Michael- 2018- 160 mph
4. Ian- 2022- 155 mph

Storm surge estimates have upped to 12-16' from Englewood to Bonita Beach, including Charlotte Harbor.  Here in TX Ike (2008) is kind of recent benchark for us, and it was 17'.  Dozens died, stuck and stranded because they did not heed the warning.

30% of Port Charlotte is over age 65.  Terrible potential logistics, having to evacuate and relocate te elderly. Hopefully the town and nearby Bradenton are empty besides Emergency Managers.  Site also is not a stranger to large hurricanes, with the area being hit by Charley in 2004, as a Cat 4.

Looking at this elevation map, you can see how badly 16' of water will,wreck havoc on a lot of SW Florida......

[Hoodat]

I stayed on Gasparilla Island once.  I can't imagine being there when this storm hits.

[catfish1957]

I stayed on Gasparilla Island once.  I can't imagine being there when this storm hits.

Looking at that elevation map, looking at topo's, it looks like the entire city of Port Charlotte will innundatedwith catastrophic storm surge.  That is a city og 60K.  the offically list their elevation as 7 feet.

[Kamaji]

Satellite images show ‘apocalyptic’ Hurricane Ian approaching Florida

By Lee Brown
September 28, 2022

Daunting satellite images show bolts of lightning sparking around the massive, swirling eye of Hurricane Ian — as the “apocalyptic” storm approaches Florida Wednesday after already knocking out power in Cuba.

The timelapse by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration came as more than 2.5 million people in the Sunshine State have been urged to evacuate before the eye is expected to hit there late Wednesday.

Other images from space showed the massive storm cutting an unmissable swath across the globe as it moved through the Caribbean Sea.

“Air Force Hurricane Hunters find Ian has strengthened into an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane,” the US National Hurricane Center in Miami said at 5 a.m. Wednesday.

*  *  *

Source:  https://nypost.com/2022/09/28/apocalyptic-hurricane-ian-seen-approaching-florida/

[Bigun]

Prayers up for all y'all in the path of this storm!

 

[catfish1957]

Satellite images show ‘apocalyptic’ Hurricane Ian approaching Florida

By Lee Brown
September 28, 2022

Daunting satellite images show bolts of lightning sparking around the massive, swirling eye of Hurricane Ian

Frequent peripheral lighting at eye wall Another leading indicator that storm is still strengthening.  This thing might be Cat 5 at landfall

[Idiot]

Frequent peripheral lighting at eye wall Another leading indicator that storm is still strengthening.  This thing might be Cat 5 at landfall

Prayers for all in the path of Ian.

[catfish1957]

Incredible.......

Outside the immediate Mexican coast near Tampico, the entire GOM is devoid of cumulus clouds. 25N- 30N Dry Ridge and Ian has sucked out atmospheric moisture dry.  Never remember seeing this before.

As far as the storm itself, I don't know if my eyes are deceiving me, but the sat loop the past couple hours kind of look like a stall....  or it might be wobble too, though.

[mystery-ak]

Expert Dan Kottlowski said.

As of 10 a.m. EDT Wednesday, Hurricane Ian had maximum sustained winds of 155 mph, just 2 mph shy of Category 5 intensity. Ian was moving north-northeastward at 10 mph, and was about 55 miles southwest of Manasota Key, Florida. Hurricane-force winds extended outward 40 miles and winds of tropical storm force reached 175 miles from the center, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC).



more
https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/hurricane-ian-to-make-landfall-in-florida-as-major-hurricane/1253655?utm_source=wnd&utm_medium=wnd&utm_campaign=syndicated

[mystery-ak]

https://twitter.com/JMichaelsNews/status/1575109965320056832

[catfish1957]

https://twitter.com/JMichaelsNews/status/1575109965320056832

This was very similar to Ike in '08.  Though Ike was only a Cat 2, it accumulated enough surface convection and square miles that it basically became a dome of sea water.  Don't forget surge very often does not correlate with atmospheric pressures or wind speeds.

Storm surge in my neck of the woods was the worst in my lifetime.

Also for interest, if Ian does even slightly strengthen, it would be only the 5th hurricane in continental U.S. History to strike as a Cat 5.

1. 1935 Great Labor Day Hurricane- South Florida
2. 1969- Camille- LA/MS coast
3. 1992- Andrew- South Florida
4. 2018- Michael- FL panhandle
5  ?

[catfish1957]

I know the offical NHC advisory says that storm is moving NNE.  But from my view of the last 4 hrs. of sat. loops, this thing looks a lot more like a northward vector than NNE.

Tampa Bay might not want to let their guard down just yet.

[catfish1957]

To put the size of this storm in perspective, Ian right now has feeder bands impacting both Cuba and Cape Hatteras.

[DCPatriot]

I know the offical NHC advisory says that storm is moving NNE.  But from my view of the last 4 hrs. of sat. loops, this thing looks a lot more like a northward vector than NNE.

Tampa Bay might not want to let their guard down just yet.

Predicted it would focus on the Panhandle and skirt Ft. Myers, Sarasota and Tampa.

Why I don't buy lottery tickets...or bet on sports.   

[catfish1957]

Predicted it would focus on the Panhandle and skirt Ft. Myers, Sarasota and Tampa.

Why I don't buy lottery tickets...or bet on sports.   

Even with all the fancy models and technology, in the past 15 years NHC average forecasting error out 3 days is 100 miles.  5 days? 200 miles.

Not exactly random, but those kind of errors wreck havoc for Emergency Managers.  When I used to do that at a plant, the back and forth of relying the ebb and flow of good/bad weather data  made it tough to make decisons.

Still remember my plant manger asking me if he needed to shut the plant down during Rita.  Talk about stressful.

[Hoodat]

When I used to do that at a plant, the back and forth of relying the ebb and flow of good/bad weather data  made it tough to make decisons.

Still remember my plant manger asking me if he needed to shut the plant down during Rita.  Talk about stressful.

I always wanted to ride one out on a Gulf platform.  But this particular corp. once had one break loose from its tendons and flip over.  That would suck.

[catfish1957]

I always wanted to ride one out on a Gulf platform.  But this particular corp. once had one break loose from its tendons and flip over.  That would suck.

What kind of wind were those rigs designed to withstand?  Don't know if I'd like to be on that kind of ride out crew.

[catfish1957]

From radar vantage, eye wall is now hitting what appears to be barrier islands between Cape Coral and Englewood.  Base on N/NNE trek appears the towns of Englewood and Venice are gong to be in the eye the next couple of hours.

Sarasota and Brandenton afterwards and probably by the western eye wall.

[corbe]

   Meanwhile in front of the @Wingnut residence

[catfish1957]

One other point to warn FL Briefers.....   even if you are 50-200 miles from the storm, keep an eye on the sky for tornadoes.  Biggest risk is normally at landfall, and a few hours afterwards after landfall.  Especially east and north of the COC.

[Wingnut]

   Meanwhile in front of the @Wingnut residence

Don't be making fun of my "Personal Floatation Device" now.

[mystery-ak]

Don't be making fun of my "Personal Floatation Device" now.

 

[Hoodat]

What kind of wind were those rigs designed to withstand?  Don't know if I'd like to be on that kind of ride out crew.

The one I was on, maybe 180-200 mph.  But this was deepwater.  The tendons are a mile long.  We went through several hurricanes during my time there.  On return, there may have been some things broken off here and there.  But never a breach of any inside areas.  And normally the ballast tanks would keep it upright even if it broke loose.  But no telling where it would end up.