Hurricane Ian Thread

[mystery-ak]

There has been a burst near the center this evening.  We'll see if it means anything.  The pressure fell quite a bit, but the convection has been of the popcorn variety.

What does that mean?

[Wingnut]

What does that mean?

[mystery-ak]

September 25, 2022 8:26pm EDT
Florida Keys under tropical storm watch as Ian gains strength in the Caribbean
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency on Saturday
By Paul Best | Fox News

    The National Hurricane Center issued a tropical storm watch for the lower Florida Keys on Sunday evening as Tropical Storm Ian continues gaining steam in the Caribbean.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency for the entire state on Saturday and urged residents to prepare for the storm.

Tropical Storm Ian, which currently has maximum sustained winds of 45 mph, is expected to go through rapid intensification then become a major hurricane on Tuesday.



It's projected to pass over or near the Cayman Islands and western Cuba on Monday, then enter the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday.

"You see while it doesn’t have an eye, you can see a very impressive twist, rotation in the clouds so that implies a lot of structure there," Jamie Rhone, the Acting Director the National Hurricane Center, told FOX Weather.

"So when it moves into a more conducive environment, especially the northwest Caribbean where the oceans are very warm, it could rapidly intensify and all our guidance is showing that’s a high probability."

Southern and central Florida are expected to see heavy rainfall on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday, while the Florida Keys could see flash and urban flooding through the middle of the week, according to the National Hurricane Center.

more
https://www.foxnews.com/us/florida-keys-tropical-storm-watch-ian-gains-strength-caribbean

[Wingnut]

Yawn. 

[cato potatoe]

What does that mean?

Usually it means the system is fighting dry air ... and I think that was the case earlier today.  However, the storm appears to be transitioning into the rapid intensification phase.  So I've booked a hotel room several counties to the southeast, and will be exiting stage right tomorrow or early Tuesday.  Tampa Bay has not seen a bad storm in 100 years ... I don't want to be anywhere near this place if/when that happens.

[catfish1957]

@jmyrlefuller

Ian has now reached Hurricane Status.  Based on Monday, 8 a.m. advisory, winds are now sustained at 75 mph.

Models remains strongly clustered, and are in good agreement in path and strength.  Cone now covers an area from about Panama City to St. Petersburg.  Storm according to is going to dangerously pass clase to Tampa Bay with 130 mph wind.

This somewhat eastward shift in the models, IMO was based on a little earlier than expected W-WNW-NW-NNW-N turn.  Actual landfall shows Cedar Key, FL. as bullseye.  But again...focus on the cone, and not the direct projected path.

But I also have to mention what could be a worst case scenario.......  If this continues to strengthen in Cat 3/4 as expected, I fear it might decide to remain just right off the coast, hug the coast on trek, and cause widespread devestation for a few hundred  miles.

Sat imagery of the past 4-6 hours is remarkable.  Yesterday, at this time, there wasn't  even full convection around the COC.  Now?  Massive amount moisture and deep convection has engulfed the storm. Especially north and northeast sections.  This is a rapidly strenghtening storm.  Looking at the atmospheric loops, it looks like no shear, and with near 90 degree GOM bathwater?  There are no reasons to think this storm could weaken.

There is a narrow tongue of fairly dry air sitting at 25 North, but it seems like it is subsiding. 

And one final point, loops have just shown a wobble of the COC westward.  If these continue, it's better news for Tampa, and less better news for the panhandle.

[mystery-ak]

Praying for all our Briefers in harms way...please take care and keep in touch if you can...

[Right_in_Virginia]

Catturd ™
@catturd2
·7m

If you have an electric car in Florida - you might want to evacuate now so you can make it to South Georgia by Friday.

[Kamaji]

Any chance this thing could cut across Florida and then re-enter the mid-Atlantic?

[DCPatriot]

Any chance this thing could cut across Florida and then re-enter the mid-Atlantic?

My bet it's going straight due North and will immediately become a 'Tropical Storm'. 

The Florida Gulf Coast gets a storm surge and wind damage of course, but perhaps I've been 'dulled' by 24/7 cries of crisis, tragedy and death.

[mystery-ak]

Florida Activates 2,500 Guardsmen as Hurricane Ian Approaches: ‘Anticipate Fuel Disruptions,’ Power Outages

Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) has declared a state of emergency for all Florida counties, and the state has activated 2,500 guardsmen in anticipation of Hurricane Ian’s landfall, as the governor warned Floridians to anticipate power outages and fuel disruptions.

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2022/09/26/florida-activates-2500-guardsmen-hurricane-ian-approaches-anticipate-fuel-disruptions-power-outages/

[catfish1957]

My bet it's going straight due North and will immediately become a 'Tropical Storm'. 

The Florida Gulf Coast gets a storm surge and wind damage of course, but perhaps I've been 'dulled' by 24/7 cries of crisis, tragedy and death.

17 of the 19 models presently crunching numbers for the storm have Ian transversing GA, and then lingering through the western Carolinas and VA.

Looking at the 12 hr. increment dots out 168 hours, they sure look close together, so sadly that probably means we might have a lingering T.S that is going to inunndate those areas.  This is early on obviously, and it could change, but right now this might be a historic eastern seaboard flood event.

[DCPatriot]

17 of the 19 models presently crunching numbers for the storm have Ian transversing GA, and then lingering through the western Carolinas and VA.

Looking at the 12 hr. increment dots out 168 hours, they sure look close together, so sadly that probably means we might have a lingering T.S that is going to inunndate those areas.  This is early on obviously, and it could change, but right now this might be a historic eastern seaboard flood event.

Will be interesting to see if the 'Eye' get caught by the western tip of Cuba and remains intact or breaks up.

[Wingnut]

Praying for all our Briefers in harms way...please take care and keep in touch if you can...

I'm ready for Ian.  No worries,

[catfish1957]

Will be interesting to see if the 'Eye' get caught by the western tip of Cuba and remains intact or breaks up.

Elevation of that part of Cuba is pretty low.  Could see some lapses in strenghtening, but I doubt you'll see too much impact.   OTOH, if the path moves say about 100 miles eastward from forecast, then we might see some sheering off, but again not enough to kill a storm that now has a convection shield of  about 350 miles in diameter.

[mystery-ak]

 September 26, 2022 11:21am EDT
Hurricane Ian forms into powerful storm, prompting evacuation order in Tampa
Residents in Tampa have received a mandatory evacuation order as Hurricane Ian approaches

By Andrea Vacchiano , Anders Hagstrom | Fox News

Tropical Storm Ian strengthened into Hurricane Ian Monday morning, as coastal residents brace for major impacts from the storm as the week progresses.

Hurricane status was declared at around 5:00 a.m. as the storm's winds strengthened to 75 miles per hour, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Hurricane Ian is expected to become a significant hurricane within the next 48 hours. A Hurricane Watch was issued for Florida's Gulf Coast, including Tampa Bay.

Hillsborough County, which contains Tampa, ordered a mandatory evacuation for residents living in the city's coastal area. It also announced a voluntary evacuation for most of the rest of the county.

more
https://www.foxnews.com/weather/hurricane-ian-forms-powerful-storm-prompting-evacuation-order-tampa

[DCPatriot]

Elevation of that part of Cuba is pretty low.  Could see some lapses in strenghtening, but I doubt you'll see too much impact.   OTOH, if the path moves say about 100 miles eastward from forecast, then we might see some sheering off, but again not enough to kill a storm that now has a convection shield of  about 350 miles in diameter.

 

[catfish1957]

Think I see an  eye now forming now.....  This is a rapidly growing storm, by nature of its growth, and massive building up of convection on all 4 quadrants now.  Am also interesting to see how pervasive the SW to NE flow (95W trough) in most of the rest of the GOM is going to impact Ian's steering.  This is one of the more fascinating aspects of Hurricane watching.  Which wins, mid and upper wins aloft, or their sheer power and circulation of a massive cane. 

Gilbert back in '88 was a sterling example, and it scared the hell out of us Texans.  In September there were some serious troughs and fronts that forecasters were convinced that Gilbert would veer more north or northwest from its perpetual WNW track.

This 900mb monster never did, and when you look at the track it almost looks like a straight line from when it became Hurricane to Landfall.

[mystery-ak]

My sister has a house on Sanibel Island...she's probably a nervous wreck...

[catfish1957]

Holy Smokes, the 5pm advisory is out, and it almost looks like a worst case scenario for Tampa Bay.  Let's hope this does not unfold as forecast describes.

(1) Ian has rapidly strengthened with winds now 100 mph sustained, and about 80 miles SW of the tip of Western Cuba.

(2) For the next two days, Ian according to forecast turns NNW, N, then slightly NNE, and slows.  Growing rapidly. 

(3) By Wednesday, Ian has potentially grown into a monster,  A Cat 4, with 135 mph sustiained winds, basically right at Tampa Bay.

(4) Then the storm appears to go inland or skim inland for about 50 miles, but losing strength interacting with land.

(5) This storm is poised down to slow down to a crawl (5 mph or less).  So not only will there be significant winds, they may be winds of long duration.

Based on the water sat. imagery, a well defined eye has now formed,and this thing is grwoing rapidly.  In fact some of the outer feeder bands have already reached the SW FL coast. Also very concerning is we are now starting to see areas of subsidence peripheral to the storm (dry infusion a few hundred miles away because the storm has sucked up moisture from surrounding areas)  This is another sign of a large and potent hurricane.

Our thoughts and prayers are with those dealing with this in Western Florida.

I know forecasts can change, but right now I can imagine that emergency managers in TB are calling for preperations to be rushed to completion including evacuation.

[Gefn]

10 min ago
Hurricane Ian strengthens to Category 2 and is expected to slam Cuba Tuesday morning

https://www.cnn.com/us/live-news/hurricane-ian-update-today-09-26-22#h_001e127d943e5e8f89bff869c21f08bd

[Gefn]

10 min ago
Hurricane Ian strengthens to Category 2 and is expected to slam Cuba Tuesday morning

https://www.cnn.com/us/live-news/hurricane-ian-update-today-09-26-22#h_001e127d943e5e8f89bff869c21f08bd

Up to date live updates at link

[mystery-ak]

Ron DeSantis: 25,000 Linemen Ready for Power Outages in Florida

Thousands of linemen are ready to restore power in Florida as Hurricane Ian approaches the state’s west coast, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) announced on Monday.

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2022/09/26/ron-desantis-25000-linemen-ready-power-outages-florida/

[catfish1957]

On 10 pm advisory....Another slight jaunt eastward of track.  No real major changes in intensity though.

Still, what is most breathtakingly scary is, based on NHC track and forecast, Tampa Bay may see 24-36 hours straight of Cat 3-4 winds.

i just can't fathom that, and I have been through the likes of Rita, Ike, and at least 10 others.

[Gefn]

Low-lying and flood-prone, Tampa Bay area braces for first major storm in a century

Mark Luther, a marine sciences professor who lives in a St. Petersburg, Fla., neighborhood that juts into Tampa Bay, summed up his feelings about Hurricane Ian on Monday in two words:

“I’m stressed.”

Luther, an expert in the physics of oceanography at the University of South Florida who manages the region’s tide gauges, understands better than most people just how vulnerable this densely populated area is to the combination of storm and surge — and how lucky it has been to dodge a direct hit from a major hurricane for the past century.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/low-lying-and-flood-prone-tampa-bay-area-braces-for-first-major-storm-in-a-century/ar-AA12h6Dy