Hurricane Ian Thread

[catfish1957]

As I expected our Invest is now T.D.9, and is expected to intensify pretty quickly.  Models are very clustered this early, and the NHC at least at this point has the cone pretty narrow.  NHC graphic of the storm below.  Actual track has strom hitting western Cuba Monday evening as a Cat 2.  U.S. landfall is obviously contingent on how far north the storm hits as a minimum Cat 3.. If it hits in the neighborhood of Tampa or Miami, present estimates are Wednesday, if the storm more veer westward towards the panhandle, I'd guess Thursday.  NHC right now is showing a south of Tampa landfall, but, EVERYONE from the Florida panhandle to eastern FL should prepare.

In fact, all those  east of the Mississippi river to FLshould keep an eye on it too.

[cato potatoe]

The path over central Cuba and into the far northwestern Bahamas is still on the table, and definitely a best case scenario.  Second best is the western tip of Cuba followed by landfall in the sparsely populated Big Bend, after ingesting a bunch of dry air.

[libertybele]

Well it's coming right at us.  I guess we're riding it out.

[DefiantMassRINO]

 

What would happen if a nuke was dropped in to the eye of a hurricane and detonated?  Would it weaken the cyclonic forces at the center of the hurricane?

[catfish1957]

The path over central Cuba and into the far northwestern Bahamas is still on the table, and definitely a best case scenario.  Second best is the western tip of Cuba followed by landfall in the sparsely populated Big Bend, after ingesting a bunch of dry air.

There is a sect of dry air moving into the eastern GOM via trough,but I wouldn't count on it in a week.  Plus surface water temperatures in that area are in the upper 80's.

[Bigun]

Well it's coming right at us.  I guess we're riding it out.

Don't mess with this one @libertybele If you can get out do it!

[cato potatoe]

What would happen if a nuke was dropped in to the eye of a hurricane and detonated?  Would it weaken the cyclonic forces at the center of the hurricane?

If the storm is near shore, it may disperse fallout over a wide swath of land.  The circulation would not be disrupted appreciably.

[cato potatoe]

There is a sect of dry air moving into the eastern GOM via trough,but I wouldn't count on it in a week.  Plus surface water temperatures in that area are in the upper 80's.

I'm living about half a mile from Tampa Bay.  This week should be entertaining.

[Gefn]

Is there any word if it might go up the coast as well?

[cato potatoe]

Is there any word if it might go up the coast as well?

I think most of the US track depends upon how far west it gets this weekend.  The system is so heavily "tilted" northeast to southwest, it is hard to know where things will come together once the shear dies off.  And, a weaker storm this weekend would allow it to drift farther towards mexico before being picked up by the trough.

[catfish1957]

System is now named, Ian. 

Here is the 10:00 p.m. track.  Entire state of FL east of Appalacicola is in the cone of uncertainty.

Pretty safe bet storm is going to be at least a hurricane.  Satellite loops indicate a quickly developing storm.  All FL briefers, should be preparing.  All Briefers east of NOLA to Appalacicola should be keeping an eye on the storm in case upper level steering conditions changes.

[catfish1957]

I think most of the US track depends upon how far west it gets this weekend.  The system is so heavily "tilted" northeast to southwest, it is hard to know where things will come together once the shear dies off.  And, a weaker storm this weekend would allow it to drift farther towards mexico before being picked up by the trough.

Good point, but it seems that the shear you see, at least in water vapor loops might subside as storm approaches Jamaica.  The temperature profiles as it nears the Western Carribean, are bathwater hot from there to the FL coast. 

[jmyrlefuller]

System is now named, Ian. 

Thread title updated accordingly.

[catfish1957]

10 a.m. update is an excellent example reason why everyone even nearby cone of uncertainty should monitor storm progression.  In just 8 hours, track and cone has shifted North and West by about 60 miles.  Am a big fan of hurricane model trending, and wouldn't be  a bit surprised if Mobile and NOLA is not in the cone in the not distant future.

In any case, a Cat 3 hit is likely somewhere in the eastern side of GOM.

[Wingnut]

Since Covid I really don't GAF about any of this shit.  I ain't going anywhere.  Hurricane warnings are just another way they try to control us.

[mystery-ak]

 Published 1 hour ago
Tropical Storm Ian forecast to rapidly intensify into hurricane today, significant threat eyes Florida

A Hurricane Warning has been issued for parts of the Cayman Islands. Ian is expected to become a hurricane on Sunday before impacting Florida later in the week.

By Brian Donegan , Andrew Wulfeck , Steven Yablonski Source FOX Weather

Tropical Storm Ian is gaining strength in the Caribbean Sea, and much of the Florida Peninsula and Panhandle are included in the forecast cone for what could become a major hurricane in the coming days.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis urged Floridians to take precautions and declared a state of emergency on Saturday for all 67 counties ahead of the impacts of Tropical Storm Ian, which is expected to undergo a period of rapid intensification throughout the day.

Rapid intensification occurs when a tropical cyclone's (tropical depressions, tropical storms and hurricanes) maximum sustained winds increase by at least 35 mph in a 24-hour period, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Here's everything the FOX Forecast Center knows about this significant threat to the southeastern U.S. next week.



more
https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/tracking-ian-florida-tropics

[catfish1957]

Last couple hours of radar loops sure look like Ian is forming a pretty rapid COC, maybe even an eye. This tells me, I wouldn't be surprised to see Ian each Hurricane status late today, and the latest tomorrow.  With this rapidly forming COC, convection still looks interestingly light, with  the SE quandrant almost precipitation free. 

One interesting point to add, is that this is the first advisory within the  last 5 that did not shift the path north and westward. Really interested in seeing the 11AM to see if this a breather, or whether the north central GOM may still be in play.  Anyone living IMO say East of Pecan Island should be watching.

How quickly this W to WNW-NW-NNW turn happens is critical. Once that turn happens, the NHC will probably have a good grasp of how the storm responds to the trough entrenching in the SE CONUS.  Once that is established, I expect the Cone to significantly narrow.

Which right now is Mobile, AL to Tampa Bay.

[Elderberry]

[catfish1957]

No really signicant shifts in track and intensity at the 11am advisory. 

Models, OTOH, have tightened and are clustering up nicely.  With this agreement, at least at this exact moment, the NHC is fairly clear at least where it is going to go.  On the second graphic NHC is also seeing some consitency that they expect it to be either a Cat 3 or.

[mystery-ak]

 Biden approves emergency declaration for Florida as Ian approaches
by Julia Mueller - 09/25/22 7:31 AM ET

President Biden on Saturday issued an emergency declaration for the state of Florida as Tropical Storm Ian intensifies in the Caribbean. 

Biden’s move directs federal assistance to supplement Florida’s storm response, authorizing the Federal Emergency Management Agency and the Department of Homeland Security to help coordinate emergency relief efforts, according to the White House.

The president’s planned trip to Florida Tuesday was also canceled due to the storm.

As Florida braces for the storm’s forecasted arrival, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) on Saturday extended an emergency declaration initially set for a handful of Florida counties to apply statewide. 

DeSantis has urged Floridians to monitor the storm and take precautions as it approaches.

Tropical Storm Ian comes just a week after Hurricane Fiona hit Puerto Rico, bringing dangerous wind and flash flooding conditions and at one point cutting power to the entire U.S. territory.

more
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/3660053-biden-approves-emergency-declaration-for-florida-as-ian-approaches/

[Elderberry]

NASA calls off Artemis 1 moon rocket launch on Sept. 27 due to Tropical Storm Ian

https://www.space.com/artemis-1-moon-launch-delay-tropical-storm-ian

NASA may roll the 32-story Artemis 1 rocket into a hangar due to the storm, which should reach hurricane strength next week.

NASA won't try to thread the weather needle with its Artemis 1 moon mission after all.

NASA certainly doesn't want the multibillion-dollar Artemis 1 stack — a Space Launch System (SLS) megarocket topped with an Orion space capsule — out on the pad in hurricane-force winds, so it's getting the wheels turning on a possible rollback to the protection of KSC's Vehicle Assembly Building (VAB). And that prep work takes a Sept. 27 launch off the table.

[Wingnut]

Biden approves emergency declaration for Florida as Ian approaches
by Julia Mueller - 09/25/22 7:31 AM ET
The president’s planned trip to Florida Tuesday was also canceled due to the storm.

Well there is the silver lining. 

[mystery-ak]

Well there is the silver lining.

It takes a hurricane to keep him away....

[Fishrrman]

Can be viewed here:
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=275.28,10.94,937/loc=-80.746,15.602

Doesn't really look like much at the moment...

[cato potatoe]

There has been a burst near the center this evening.  We'll see if it means anything.  The pressure fell quite a bit, but the convection has been of the popcorn variety.