General Category > Weather
Hurricane Ian Thread
libertybele:
It's out a ways, but by the looks of the project track on the map, hurricane coming up that side of the Gulf are never a good sign for around me.
A hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico next week? Forecasters warn of 'significant threat' to US.
A developing tropical system could spin up into a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week, forecasters warned Wednesday.
"This is the most significant threat for the U.S. mainland we've had this hurricane season," AccuWeather chief meteorologist Jonathan Porter said.
The system, known now as Invest 98L, was located near the northeastern coast of South America on Wednesday.
An "Invest" is an area that the National Hurricane Center is watching closely with advanced computer models and other resources, including the Hurricane Hunters, for possible development, according to Weather.com.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/hurricane-gulf-mexico-next-week-173738962.html
Bigun:
If you live anywhere near the Florida panhandle the time to start making preparations is now.
catfish1957:
My take on 98L at this point.
GOM's basically been untapped as a heat sink for the entire summer. This might get ugly.
Over half the Models have this as a Cat 3 or Cat 4, and this is just at the 168 hr, point.
As expected @168 hr. early models have a pretty wide spread from mid Yucatan to about 75 west of Tampa. Except for the 2 models heading toward Yucatan, and 2 through western Cuba the other 11 or so thread the channel between Yucatan and the Keys.
Being late September, and now seeing some fronts and troughing from the north CONUS, I am leaning toward this being more of an eastern GOM threat. OTOH, if this follows the more western track, I think almost the entire GOM is into play.
But, as I like to remind my fellow Texans,..... There has never been a Major hurricane strike to Texas after October 1. Just a meterorlogical fact that takes in account the troughs and fronts I mentioned earlier.
DefiantMassRINO:
Holy crap! That storm will bomb out (bombogenesis) over the Gulf of Mexico. The only thing that could prevent that is wind shear in upper levels of the atmosphere.
Water Temperature Table of the Eastern Gulf of Mexico
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/coastal-water-temperature-guide/egof.html
Water Temperature Table of the Western Gulf of Mexico
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/coastal-water-temperature-guide/wgof.html
libertybele:
--- Quote from: Bigun on September 21, 2022, 08:03:27 pm ---If you live anywhere near the Florida panhandle the time to start making preparations is now.
--- End quote ---
....hmmm as of right now where they show this hurricane heading is towards the southern portion of FL. It looks like it's going to come up somewhere on the western side of the Gulf (not good for our area). This is the same path that Charley took and was a Cat 4 (which we stayed through)......
I don't see it hitting the panhandle at all. Just my opinion.
I'm hoping at this point that it fizzles out and is a tropical storm.
Hurricane Donna back in the '60's took a similar path and she came up the coast and then turned back and pummled areas of southern FL.
P.S. Either way, I'm not dodging this one. I have too many health issues to be riding in a car trying to escape.
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