Jobless claims lowest in three months in hopeful sign for economic 'soft landing'

[mystery-ak]

Jobless claims lowest in three months in hopeful sign for economic 'soft landing'
by Zachary Halaschak, Economics Reporter
September 15, 2022 08:32 AM

The number of new applications for unemployment benefits dropped by 5,000 to 213,000 last week, the lowest since June, the Labor Department reported Thursday, defying fears of a recession.

Falling jobless claims, a proxy for layoffs, are a sign the economy is still adding jobs despite the Federal Reserve's efforts to tighten monetary policy to slow economywide spending and bring down inflation.

The number of new claims for unemployment isn’t anywhere near where it was during most of the pandemic and has not risen to a rate that would suggest an imminent recession. Still, some economists are predicting that a recession is on the horizon.

Rising jobless claims would be a clue that the tight labor market may be slowing in response to the Federal Reserve aggressively jacking up interest rates. Driving up interest rates slows demand and can result in recessionary conditions.

In order to fight explosive inflation, the Fed has been hiking rates at a historic rate and in June and July conducted two 75-basis-point hikes, which are akin to six typical rate hikes in just two months.

Thursday’s jobless claims report comes just days after the August consumer price index report came through and rattled investors. The CPI report was hotter-than-expected, raising fears that the Fed will be forced to hike rates even more in order to drive down the explosively rising prices.

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https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/economy/jobless-claims-lowest-in-three-months-in-hopeful-sign-for-economic-soft-landing

[Hoodat]

Rising jobless claims would be a clue that the tight labor market may be slowing in response to the Federal Reserve aggressively jacking up interest rates. Driving up interest rates slows demand and can result in recessionary conditions.

In order to fight explosive inflation, the Fed has been hiking rates at a historic rate and in June and July conducted two 75-basis-point hikes, which are akin to six typical rate hikes in just two months.

Raising interest rates only works when the money supply is fixed.  It does no good to raise them when the Fed continues to print money (and offer that money to the Treasury at rates lower than they charge everyone else).  Every economic rule that they cite here does not apply when the Fed dumps $4-5 trillion of new money into the money supply in a single year.

[catfish1957]

Raising interest rates only works when the money supply is fixed.  It does no good to raise them when the Fed continues to print money (and offer that money to the Treasury at rates lower than they charge everyone else).  Every economic rule that they cite here does not apply when the Fed dumps $4-5 trillion of new money into the money supply in a single year.

There are uncurrents of uncharted metrics that are unprecedented.  Coupling record inflation, runaway government expenditures, Record Fed debt vs. GDP, and equity prices that are bloated like a rotting corpse?  We are witnessing the mother of all economic bubbles, and perfect storm.

It's not a question of if, but when.  Not giving advice, but for those who are interested, gold is at $1695/oz. (Lowest since April '20), and Silver is under $20/oz.

[LMAO]

It appears that, even while we’re in the middle of a recession, employers are reluctant to let any workers go due to Labor shortages

[Smokin Joe]

What I am seeing is that you have to work to claim to be jobless. Those benefits are based on the last few quarters of work you did, and if you didn't, well, you don't qualify and can't file a claim.

Is this people not getting laid off or just not being on the UI rolls?

Besides, you don't count if you've been out of the workforce for too long, so the numbers just might not reflect what is actually going on.