The Two Degree TemperaturUne Target is Arbitrary and tethered
A close look at the origins of the 2C target of the Paris Climate Agreement leads to a surprising conclusion
Roger Pielke Jr.
Jul 15
Pretty much everyone has heard of the 2 degree Celsius temperature target that sits at the center of international climate policy and shapes everything from climate science and assessment to policies and regulations. But very few know where it came from. Even fewer know that the nice round number – TWO – is completely arbitrary, and has become detached from its original scientific justification as scientific understandings have advanced.
If the 2C degree policy target (and its sibling, the 1.5C degree target) are breached in coming years and decades, as many expect, then the aims of international climate policy will have to revisited. This post initiates an on-going discussion here at The Honest Broker of how those policy targets might evolve by documenting the origins of the 2C temperature target and how it is today untethered from its original scientific basis. In this context, reconsidering targets for climate policy is not necessarily a bad thing. In fact, it may help to better focus climate policy on targets and timetables more appropriate for effective action on climate change.
The proximate origin of the 2C temperature target is the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC), which has the goal of
https://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/the-two-degree-temperature-target?r=2n1fv&s=w&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
