Another Senate Race Is Slipping Away ?

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

October 12th.

And your point is well made. 

We can only hope it helps Masters out.

It is amazing that the RCP shows four pick ups in the senate for the GOP and that includes Masters.  Not sure how that works....since Kelly is still shown (by RCP) as being ahead in the polls.

But I'll certainly take it.

Every poll shown on 538 has Kelly leading....but some of them by less than 2 points.  I still don't get why they include those rubes over at Center Street.

RCP assumed that the polls were biased against Republicans, but I think a lot of polls had already corrected for that.

[HikerGuy83]

RCP assumed that the polls were biased against Republicans, but I think a lot of polls had already corrected for that.

O.K.

Thank you for that.

Polling has certainly lost it's flavor.

[Cyber Liberty]

Don't see Masters pulling this one out.

Probably not...but there are still about a half a million uncounted ballots.  At this rate we'll run up against the Cert deadline.

[Bigun]

And that's the plan!  Same with Kari unfortunately.

Where are the lawyers and the lawsuits?

[Kamaji]

And that's the plan!  Same with Kari unfortunately.

Where are the lawyers and the lawsuits?

Exactly.

[HikerGuy83]

Probably not...but there are still about a half a million uncounted ballots.  At this rate we'll run up against the Cert deadline.

This is unbelievable.

How did Maricopa not do EVERYTHING they could to ensure a tight fast election.

Given the history of the last two years, I am embarrassed for them.

[catfish1957]

This is unbelievable.

How did Maricopa not do EVERYTHING they could to ensure a tight fast election.

Given the history of the last two years, I am embarrassed for them.

Again... the longer the window of counting, the easier the cheat.

[DB]

Again... the longer the window of counting, the easier the cheat.

Have to find out how many votes you need accurately first...

[Hoodat]

Here's what is going on.  With the voting machine issues, the scanners reject the ballots on the third attempt.  At that point, the voter can either go to another machine (at another precinct) or the voter can submit their ballot as is and have an election official put it in a machine later.  It is these ballots that are being manipulated now.  If the ballots still don't work, then they go down as votes for Hobbs and Kelly.

When we went through this two years ago, there was a steady trend of red gains in the days after the election.  (The only thing stopping it was a hard deadline set by Arizona law).  This same red increase should be happening now.  Yet the trend in heavily Republican areas is going blue.  The election workers are essentially counting Lake/Masters votes as votes for Hobbs/Kelly.

[Hoodat]

Also, 17,000 ballots were added to the total last night.  Wednesday, Maricopa county had reported that there were 275,000 ballots that had been dropped off on election day.  This morning, they said that number was 292,000.  In other words, between election day and today, 17,000 ballots got added to the count.

[libertybele]

Here's what is going on.  With the voting machine issues, the scanners reject the ballots on the third attempt.  At that point, the voter can either go to another machine (at another precinct) or the voter can submit their ballot as is and have an election official put it in a machine later.  It is these ballots that are being manipulated now.  If the ballots still don't work, then they go down as votes for Hobbs and Kelly.

When we went through this two years ago, there was a steady trend of red gains in the days after the election.  (The only thing stopping it was a hard deadline set by Arizona law).  This same red increase should be happening now.  Yet the trend in heavily Republican areas is going blue.  The election workers are essentially counting Lake/Masters votes as votes for Hobbs/Kelly.

      Same ole same ole method of cheating.  Color me surprised.

[HikerGuy83]

    Same ole same ole method of cheating.  Color me surprised.

This is unbelievable. 

There should be a "swat" team of some kind  that comes in when the idiots in charge can't get it done right or on time. 

How do they explain this.

[HikerGuy83]

Are there other states having these issues ?

Seems like we are the only one (We, being AZ, the state that became the center of controversy in 2020) that can't seem to run an election right.

Un-freaking-believable.

[libertybele]

This is unbelievable. 

There should be a "swat" team of some kind  that comes in when the idiots in charge can't get it done right or on time. 

How do they explain this.

Joe needs to send in the FBI and the U.S. Attorneys.

[HikerGuy83]

Joe needs to send in the FBI and the U.S. Attorneys.

Yes, he should.

That would pretty much convince everyone the election was a pile of poop.

[HikerGuy83]

Well, it's over in the senate race. 

Kelly pretty much cleans it up with 11% more votes than Masters.

It didn't just slip away.....it slid down the hill, out through the field, and into a sink hole.

[HikerGuy83]

Finchem got stomped.

[HikerGuy83]

AZ could have 6 of the 9 seats in the house.

To offset the giveaway to Kelly.

[HikerGuy83]

Hate to pick this scab, but Masters got creamed. 

He wasn't close. 

The blathering about polling was all wrong.

We have anaother senate seat coming up in 2024 and from what I can tell we don't have anyone worth running. 

WTH is wrong with the GOP ?

[Free Vulcan]

Hate to pick this scab, but Masters got creamed. 

He wasn't close. 

The blathering about polling was all wrong.

We have anaother senate seat coming up in 2024 and from what I can tell we don't have anyone worth running. 

WTH is wrong with the GOP ?

It was only 5%, which is a 2.5% swing, and that after being wildly outspent because Mitch pulled funds.

Masters actually did better than would normally be expected, even if the vote was on the up and up.

[HikerGuy83]

It was only 5%, which is a 2.5% swing, and that after being wildly outspent because Mitch pulled funds.

Masters actually did better than would normally be expected, even if the vote was on the up and up.

Michael Bloomberg showed that money only goes so far.

While I won't says Masters was a "bad" candidate, his campaign wasn't that great.

It seems to start out with positions that were easily framed as extreme.  He started backpeddling on some them and that wasn't lost to his opposition. 

Many GOP candidates won.

Lake (if she winds up losing)....but barely lost.

Masters got hammered, by comparison.

I only bring this up because I have to wonder who is thinking about going against Sinema in 2024 and what they are doing to prep themselves to have a good shot at unseating her.  I like Sinema, but I would prefer a solid conservative (and, of course, that is always a broad reaching term) in there instead.

Sinema barely won.....again, against a not-so-great candidate. 

I think a good Republican candidate easily wins.  But that candidate needs to be prepping now and the GOP needs to be learning from it's past mistakes in order to win.

Sinema is an incumbent which means she has some built in vitality.  It will be interesting to see if her party goes after her and how she plans to run again in 2024.  Either way, if we just show up with someone (which is how I see Masters coming onto the scene) it's not going to end well......again.

[HikerGuy83]

Masters actually did better than would normally be expected, even if the vote was on the up and up.

I think this is a testament to just how many true Republicans there are in the state.

As I said above, Master's campaign had very little appeal beyond the base. 

If you know you have that much "de facto" support just because you are Republican (and not a RINO....I certainly don't think Masters was that), you know you need to peel off others (including the McPain followers) to make up the difference.

Not an easy task, but the right candidate does it and wins.

[Free Vulcan]

Michael Bloomberg showed that money only goes so far.

Presidential campaigns are a bit different bird. You at least need to keep relatively equal with your opponent in a typical campaign if for not other reason to get your name out there. Mitch pulling his money killed Masters.

Masters got hammered, by comparison.

Still talking about small margins. A 2.5% swing might be talking 5-10 votes per precinct.

And Masters made missteps early on no doubt. Kelly made his too. By the end Masters was running a good race, but he had no money. I think he was outspent 3-1 and only lost 5%. I don't know many candidates at the Senate level that have done that.

[HikerGuy83]

Presidential campaigns are a bit different bird. You at least need to keep relatively equal with your opponent in a typical campaign if for not other reason to get your name out there. Mitch pulling his money killed Masters.

I was referencing Bloombergs 102 million spend for a 3rd term as mayor of New York.

He barely won.  And it showed money only goes so far.

[HikerGuy83]

And Masters made missteps early on no doubt. Kelly made his too. By the end Masters was running a good race, but he had no money. I think he was outspent 3-1 and only lost 5%. I don't know many candidates at the Senate level that have done that.

Masters was not a good candidate....period.

That he only lost by 5% tells you something.

I don't believe it was spending that cost him.