Ukraine 3

[Hoodat]

[Hoodat]

Russia makes new stand after being thrown back by rapid Ukrainian offensive in Kharkiv

The Russians are making a stand at Svatove, as well as trying to regain their positions at Kremenna, because if they cannot, then Lysychansk and Severodonetsk could be surrounded from the north.

Michael Clarke  |  18 September 2022  |  04:08, UK

Thrown back by the rapid Ukrainian offensive in the Kharkiv region east of Ukraine, the Russians were going to have to dig in somewhere.

And now we can begin to see where.



They are certainly making a stand at Svatove, east of the Oskil River.

This is really important to them because Svatove controls the last good supply route from Belgorod in Russia to their forces further south.

But the Ukrainians are now in a position to attack the P66 highway that runs south from Svatove towards Kremenna, on the northern doorstep of the Donbas.  .  .

https://news.sky.com/story/russia-makes-new-stand-after-being-thrown-back-by-rapid-ukrainian-offensive-in-kharkiv-12699771

[Elderberry]

Here’s what we know about the state of Russia’s military

https://www.vox.com/2022/9/18/23359326/russia-military-failures-ukraine

Ukraine’s recent victories expose even more systemic failures.

Ukraine’s continuing rout of Russian forces in the east has exposed fundamental problems within the Russian military, including deficiencies and power struggles in its command structure and gaps in intelligence gathering and processing. Though Russia’s early failures and difficulty recruiting enough soldiers for the frontline have been clear for months, the latest operation shows the depth of the disarray and stasis in Russia’s armed forces.

Ukraine’s lightning strike operation in Kharkiv oblast demonstrated the Ukrainian military’s ability to take advantage of those deficiencies to recapture not just territory, but strategically important transport and resupply hubs for the Russian military’s eastern front. Although the war is far from over, and Russia still controls around 20 percent of Ukraine’s territory, the Kharkiv operation provided a strategic and moral win for Ukraine, and revealed a Russian military seemingly unable — or unwilling — to learn from its previous errors.

Fighting continues in southern Ukraine near Kherson and in the Donbas, where Russia had sent its more experienced soldiers prior to the Kharkiv blitz. While it’s impossible to predict how the fighting will play out there, Ukraine’s ability to take the battlefield initiative and exploit Russian weaknesses — as well as materiel, financial, and intelligence support from Western countries — put Ukraine’s military in a stronger position.

Since the beginning of the war, Russian failures — its inability to achieve its initial goal of a short, surgical operation to remove Ukrainian leadership, its withdrawal from Kyiv and reorientation toward the south in the spring, and numerous tactical blunders — have been surprising. Earlier, devastating campaigns in Syria and Chechnya, as well as sophisticated military doctrine and strategic shows of force, successfully burnished the Russian military’s image, but in a large-scale ground war against a well-equipped and organized adversary, that same organization is buckling under serious miscalculations and a chaotic military structure.

Strikingly, the Ukrainian military’s recent victories have even forced the Russian media to acknowledge that “there are setbacks,” Rita Konaev, deputy director of analysis at Georgetown University’s Center for Security and Emerging Technology (CSET), told Vox.

“Of course, there’s still a message of, ‘We will stay in it until we reach our goals,’ although the goals continue to evolve and shift and [Russian President Vladimir] Putin has demonstrated that he is able to re-articulate the goals to fit the changing reality on the ground without suffering much,” she said. “He doesn’t have to comply with reality” when it comes to his messaging on Ukraine, she continued.

The Russian military’s command structure is a mess

While neither Russia nor Ukraine disclose official military death tolls, the losses on each side are likely in the tens of thousands. An August estimate from the US Department of Defense put Russian battlefield injuries and deaths at “70 or 80,000 casualties in less than six months,” undersecretary of defense for policy Colin Kahl said. The death toll specifically was estimated to be around 20,000 — 15,000 of which were regular troops and about 5,000 private mercenaries like those from the Wagner Group, the New York Times’ Helene Cooper reported at the time.

More at link.

[Hoodat]

Russia Has No Reserves Left As Ukrainian Troops Surround A Key Eastern Town

David Axe  |  Sep 18, 2022  |  05:11pm EDT

May 27 was a dark day for Ukraine. That was the day Lyman, the last free town north of the Donets River in eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region, finally fell to Russian forces. Capturing Lyman helped the Russian army to consolidate its position in Donbas and secure supply lines across the region.

Lyman was a domino. As it fell, it knocked down Severodonetsk, the last free city east of the Donets. And as Severodonetsk fell, it toppled Lysychansk, its twin city on the opposite side of the river.

Nearly four months later, the dominos are falling in the opposite direction. A Ukrainian counteroffensive that kicked off east of Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second city 100 miles northwest of Lyman, in a heady two weeks has liberated a thousand square miles of northeast Ukraine.

Fleeing a dozen eager Ukrainian brigades, Russian forces in Kharkiv Oblast —including the once-elite 1st Guard Tanks Army—have fled east across the Oskil River, leaving behind hundreds of vehicles and potentially thousands of casualties.

The Ukrainians’ momentum, weighted by aggressive air and artillery support, has carried them a short distance across the Oskil and south toward Lyman. Now several of Kyiv’s brigades—a mix of paratroopers and territorials—also are closing on Lyman ... from the opposite direction.

It’s a proverbial noose for the Russians in the town.

The Institute for the Study of War in Washington, D.C., explained what’s at stake. “Further Ukrainian advances east along the north bank of the Siverskyi Donets River could make Russian positions around Lyman untenable and open the approaches to Lysychansk and ultimately Severodonetsk.”  .  .  .

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/09/18/russia-has-no-reserves-left-as-ukrainian-troops-surround-a-key-eastern-town/

[Kamaji]

Head of the Armed Forces in UK says Vladimir Putin is 'failing on all of his military strategic objectives' and his plot to seize control of Ukraine 'is not going to happen'

By DAVID AVERRE FOR MAILONLINE
18 September 2022

Putin's war in Ukraine has thus far proven to be a total failure, according to the head of Britain's armed forces, after thousands of Russian troops were driven out of Kharkiv last week.

Speaking to the BBC's Laura Kuenssberg this morning, Admiral Sir Tony Radakin painted a bleak picture of Russian prospects in Ukraine and what this means for the Kremlin chief.

'Putin is failing on all of his military strategic objectives. He wanted to subjugate Ukraine - that's not going to happen,' Radakin said.

'He's under pressure, his problems are mounting, his forces are thin on the ground... at a strategic level, this is a failure for Putin and Ukraine is fighting to maintain their integrity and to gain more of their country back,' he added.

The British admiral's comments come as the EU presidency called for an international tribunal for Russian war crimes to be established after new mass graves were found in Ukraine earlier this week.

*  *  *

Source:  https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11224669/Head-UK-Armed-Forces-says-Vladimir-Putin-failing-military-strategic-objectives.html

[240B]

[Gefn]

Russia announces immediate ‘partial mobilization’ of citizens for its offensive in Ukraine

Russian President Vladimir Putin has announced the immediate “partial mobilization” of Russian citizens in an escalation of Moscow’s offensive in Ukraine more than six months after its invasion began.

“In order to protect our homeland, its sovereignty and territorial integrity, to ensure the security of our people and people in the liberated territories, I consider it necessary to support the proposal of the Ministry of Defense and the General Staff to conduct partial mobilization in the Russian Federation,” Putin said in a highly anticipated speech to the nation Wednesday.

Efforts to begin partial mobilization will begin on Wednesday and the decree has already been signed, Putin said.

The mobilization would mean citizens who are in the reserve and those with military experience would be subject to conscription, he added.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/21/europe/ukraine-russian-referendums-intl-hnk/index.html

[Gefn]

Russia announces immediate ‘partial mobilization’ of citizens for its offensive in Ukraine



https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/21/europe/ukraine-russian-referendums-intl-hnk/index.html

Putin is addressing his country right now live.

[Hoodat]

Bringing back Soviet Directive 227.

[240B]

[240B]

[bilo]

Russia announces immediate ‘partial mobilization’ of citizens for its offensive in Ukraine



https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/21/europe/ukraine-russian-referendums-intl-hnk/index.html

I'm hoping this is just an escalation before a negotiated de-escalation. Though, Putin may be stupid enough to throw waves of poorly trained, ill equipped, conscripts against a modern army that has better training and is fighting for their own country.

At this point I can't imagine what Ukraine would be willing to negotiate other than not joining NATO and Russia withdrawing from all of Ukraine.

[Kamaji]

Terrified Russians race to flee the country in bid to dodge Putin's army call-up, with one-way flights selling out and Google searches for 'how to leave' surging

By MailOnline Reporter
21 September 2022

Desperate Russians are frantically trying to flee the country after Vladimir Putin announced a dramatic mobilization. In the biggest escalation of the Russia-Ukraine War since the invasion, Putin explicitly raised the specter of a nuclear conflict and called up 300,000 reservists in the country's first mobilization since World War II. One-way flights out of Russia have skyrocketed and others have sold out as civilians scramble for a ticket to safety. In a photo taken on September 20, 2022, a billboard is seen promoting contract army service with an image of a serviceman and the slogan reading: 'Serving Russia is a real job' sits in Saint Petersburg.

According to Russian investigative news outlet RBK, all plane tickets to visa-free countries have now sold out. Google data showed earlier that a family of three would have to fork out £44,000 ($49,000) to get to Johannesburg on Wednesday in a 45-hour trip with three layovers. Direct flights from Moscow to Istanbul in Turkey and Yerevan in Armenia, both destinations that allow Russians to enter without a visa, were sold out as of Wednesday, according to Aviasales data, Russia's most popular flight purchasing website. Some routes with stopovers, including those from Moscow to Tbilisi, were also unavailable, while the cheapest flights from the capital to Dubai were costing more than 300,000 roubles ($5,000) - about five times the average monthly wage. By noon, flights to Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan stopped appearing online amid the scramble.

Russian Railways and Aeroflot, the country's flagship airline, said they hadn't 'yet' been ordered to ban men aged 18 to 65 from boarding. Searches for 'How to leave Russia' also topped Google traffic at the time Putin's speech was originally scheduled, data shows, as terrified civilians sought to avoid the prospect of conflict. The tyrant's announcement, made in an early-morning television address, raised fears that some men of fighting age would not be allowed to leave Russia.

*  *  *

Source:  https://www.dailymail.co.uk/galleries/article-11235785/Panicked-Russians-attempt-flee-country-amid-Putins-army-call-up.html

[Kamaji]

Pope Francis says Ukraine is being 'martyred' as he condemns 'savageness, monstrosities and torture' - and reveals his charity chief was SHOT AT while delivering aid

By Jack Newman For Mailonline
21 September 2022

Pope Francis has said Ukraine is being 'martyred' as he slammed Russia's 'monstrosity' in Putin's barbaric war.

Speaking at the end of his general audience in St. Peter's Square, Francis revealed his charity chief who is delivering aid in Ukraine had to run and take cover after coming under gunfire last week.

Cardinal Konrad Krajewski, who is Polish, was forced to dodge bullets while on his fourth humanitarian and pastoral mission to Ukraine, sending supplies with a Catholic bishop, a Protestant bishop, and a Ukrainian soldier.

*  *  *

Source:  https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11234615/Pope-Francis-says-Ukraine-martyred-condemns-savageness-monstrosities-torture.html

[240B]

Putin was sitting pretty. Putin was virtually the King of the EU.
Then for some unknown reason (greed I guess), he blew it all up with a three day war.
Putin has blasted all the foundational pillars which made Russia, Russia.
Russia has an abysmal repopulation rate. No one is having children.
The very last thing he needed was a war. Especially a war with no imperative need or cause.
Now, the country is spiraling quickly toward third world nation status with no gain at all.
Soon, Russia will become another of China's dependent nations.

[240B]

I think China looks at Russia as a potential vulnerable target. Even over Taiwan.

[240B]

[Elderberry]

Putin Chooses Mobilization, Sham Referendum, Continuing Humiliation

https://www.battleswarmblog.com/?p=52709

Faced with the continued erosion of Russia’s military position in Ukraine, Vladimir Putin has chosen to double-down on failure.

    Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday announced the partial mobilization of military reservists, a significant escalation of his war in Ukraine after battlefield setbacks have the Kremlin facing growing pressure to act.

    In a rare national address, he also backed plans for Russia to annex occupied areas of southern and eastern Ukraine, and appeared to threaten nuclear retaliation if Kyiv continues its efforts to reclaim that land.

    It came just a day after four Russian-controlled areas announced they would stage votes this week on breaking away from Ukraine and joining Russia, in a plan Kyiv and its Western allies dismissed as a desperate “sham” aimed at deterring a successful counteroffensive by Ukrainian troops.

Before this announcement it was apparent that Russia basically had no reserves, so a mobilization isn’t a surprise. Why admit failure when you can simply get more of your countrymen slaughtered for doubling-down on your own mistake?

Stephen Green notes that there’s less to this announcement than meets the eye.

    It won’t be easy or fast to call up that many reservists, according to military experts, because Russia basically doesn’t have a reserve.

    A 2019 RAND study noted that “Russia has paid little attention to developing an effective and sizable active reserve system that might be immediately required in the event of a major war.” RAND estimates that Russia has an effective reserve of only 4,000-5,000 men.

    The country’s former army reserve units had been disbanded from 2008-2010 as part of the military’s modernization program, with their equipment — all of it older — going into storage or scrapped.

    That doesn’t mean that Russia can’t conscript, train, organize, and arm 300,000 new soldiers, but it won’t be quick or easy.

-----

He also notes the problem of obtaining new equipment. Even the first wave of Russian invasion included troops who were armed with ancient rifles. With the sanctions in place, none of that is going to get any better. Plus the fact that Russia essentially used up all their smart ordinance during the first stage of the war and that sanctions ensure they can’t easily make more.

Is there a Peter Zeihan video on the topic? Of course there is.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pt6sfPf1Z_Q&t=1s

Some takeaways:

•  Reiterates why everything in the Russia army travels by rail. “The Ukrainians were able to take a couple of re-up depots in eastern Ukraine and Kharkiv a couple weeks ago and the front just collapsed.”

•  “We might be seeing a repeat of that in the Donbas.”

•  “The Russians are now discovering that they’re actually outnumbered locally, and that with all the captured equipment, the Ukrainians actually now have more artillery and more ammo.”

•  “This is the sort of war the the Russians know how to fight: Just throw bodies after it.”

-----

Nor are the sham referendums likely to make any difference either.

    Russian-appointed occupation officials in Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhia oblasts announced on September 20 that they will hold a “referendum” on acceding to Russia, with a vote taking place from September 23-27. The Kremlin will use the falsified results of these sham referenda to illegally annex all Russian-occupied parts of Ukraine and is likely to declare unoccupied parts of Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhia oblasts to be part of Russia as well.

    The Kremlin’s annexation plans are primarily targeting a domestic audience; Putin likely hopes to improve Russian force generation capabilities by calling on the Russian people to volunteer for a war to “defend” newly claimed Russian territory. Putin and his advisors have apparently realized that current Russian forces are insufficient to conquer Ukraine and that efforts to build large forces quickly through voluntary mobilization are culminating short of the Russian military’s force requirements. Putin is therefore likely setting legal and informational conditions to improve Russian force generation without resorting to expanded conscription by changing the balance of carrots and sticks the Kremlin has been using to spur voluntary recruitment.

-----

Part of the mobilization effort seems to be banning airline ticket sales for males between the ages of 18 and 65.

That decree is every bit as popular as you would expect.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IWk831QzaOs&t=1s

More at link.

[Kamaji]

Russians in revolt: More than 1,000 arrests are made while anti-war protestors are dragged away by officers in black-tinted helmets after taking to the streets in 37 cities following Putin's decision to mobilise the country due to heavy losses in Ukraine

By MATTHEW LODGE and CHRIS PLEASANCE  and JACK NEWMAN and WILL STEWART FOR MAILONLINE
21 September 2022

Police wearing blacked-out helmets are dragging anti-mobilisation protestors off the streets of Russia tonight, as thousands come out to demonstrate against being sent to the front lines in Ukraine.

More than 1,000 people have been arrested tonight in 37 cities across Russia, including Moscow and St Petersburg, as they voiced their anger at President Vladimir Putin's order to mobilise 300,000 reservists.

There have been angry clashes between activists and security forces, with protestors being forcefully taken to the ground and removed from the streets as the government cracks down on vocal dissent.

Demonstrators tonight chanted anti-war slogans, with some calling for Putin himself to go to the trenches in Ukraine, while other's have angrily proclaimed they're not willing to die for him.

It is reported a total of 828 arrests have been made so far, with this number likely to rise throughout the night as the government cracks down on vocal dissent.

In the capital Moscow 303 people have been arrested, while the former imperial capital of St Petersburg saw 279 taken into custody, and 40 more have been arrested in Yekaterinburg, a city east of the Ural Mountains.

As protests spread, many men of fighting age opted to try and leave the country, driven by fears the border might soon be closed, with tickets for one-way flights out of Moscow being snapped up by worried Russians.

*  *  *

Source:  https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11236507/Russian-anti-war-protestors-dragged-away-officers-blacked-helmets-taking-streets.html

[Kamaji]

Putin's exiled former Prime Minister claims Russian despot's nuclear bomb threat is a 'BLUFF' and his regime 'will collapse within two years'

By RACHAEL BUNYAN FOR MAILONLINE
22 September 2022

Former Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov has claimed Vladimir Putin's threat to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine is a 'bluff' and predicted the collapse of his regime within two years.

Kasyanov, who served as Prime Minister under President Putin between 2000 and 2004 before being sacked and exiled, said he 'very much doubts' the Russian leader will use nuclear weapons.

It comes after Putin threatened Kyiv and the West that he won't hesitate to use nuclear weapons to protect Russian territory, as Moscow prepares to annex Ukrainian territory via sham referendums.

Kasyanov, an ardent critic of Putin who this year fled Russia to an unknown location, also claimed that the war in Ukraine, which has seen an estimated 55,000 Russian soldiers killed and thousands of tanks destroyed over the past seven months, could lead to the collapse of Putin's regime.

Anger is mounting in Moscow after Putin ordered the mobilisation of 300,000 reservists to fight in Ukraine, prompting thousands of Russians to bravely protest against being sent to the front lines in 38 cities across Russia.

Kasyanov told Channel 4 News: 'In terms of mobilisation, it's not a bluff. In terms of potential use of nuclear weapons, I think it's a bluff.'

*  *  *

Source:  https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11238247/Putins-exiled-former-Prime-Minister-claims-Russian-despots-nuclear-bomb-threat-BLUFF.html

[Kamaji]

Russia's military divided as Putin struggles to deal with Ukraine's counteroffensive, US sources say

By Katie Bo Lillis, CNN
September 22, 2022

Washington (CNN)  Russia's military is divided over how best to counter Ukraine's unexpected battlefield advances this month, according to multiple sources familiar with US intelligence, as Moscow has found itself on the defensive in both the east and the south.

Russian President Vladimir Putin is himself giving directions directly to generals in the field, two sources familiar with US and western intelligence said-- a highly unusual management tactic in a modern military that these sources said hints at the dysfunctional command structure that has plagued Russia's war from the beginning.

Intelligence intercepts have captured Russian officers arguing among themselves and complaining to friends and relatives back home about decision-making from Moscow, one of these sources told CNN.

And there are significant disagreements on strategy with military leaders struggling to agree on where to focus their efforts to shore up defensive lines, multiple sources familiar with US intelligence said.

*  *  *

Source:  https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/22/politics/russia-military-divided-ukraine-putin/index.html

[Kamaji]

Putin can call up all the troops he wants, but Russia can't train or support them

Analysis by Brad Lendon, CNN
September 22, 2022

Vladimir Putin can call up all the troops he wants, but Russia has no way of getting those new troops the training and weapons they need to fight in Ukraine any time soon.

With his invasion of Ukraine faltering badly, the Russian President on Wednesday announced the immediate "partial mobilization" of Russian citizens. Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said on Russian television that the country will call up 300,000 reservists.

If they end up facing Ukrainian guns on the front lines, they are likely to become the newest casualties in the invasion Putin started more than seven months ago and that has seen the Russian military fail at almost every aspect of modern war.

"The Russian military is not currently equipped to rapidly and effectively deploy 300,000 reservists," said Alex Lord, Europe and Eurasia specialist at the Sibylline strategic analysis firm in London.

"Russia is already struggling to effectively equip its professional forces in Ukraine, following significant equipment losses during the war," Lord said.

*  *  *

Source:  https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/22/europe/russia-mobilization-logistics-analysis-intl-hnk-ml/index.html

[240B]

There are roughly 100K+ Russian troops in Ukraine now. They have no supplies and are starving.
How the hell is Russia going to support 300K more troops, when they cannot feed what they have now?

[catfish1957]

There are roughly 100K+ Russian troops in Ukraine now. They have no supplies and are starving.
How the hell is Russia going to support 300K more troops, when they cannot feed what they have now?

While heading into winter.  Putin was head of KGB, and obviously a military historian.  Just more proof, of how he has gone insane.

[bilo]

There are roughly 100K+ Russian troops in Ukraine now. They have no supplies and are starving.
How the hell is Russia going to support 300K more troops, when they cannot feed what they have now?

The problem for Putin is the Ukrainians won't fight the type of war he wants them to. The Ukrainians are fighting a western type of war based on maneuver. The Russians want to fight a war based on attrition. Now Russia is stuck. Even if the Russians can do more than just replaced the exhausted troops in Ukraine with the 300,000 conscripts and if they can supply them as they attack the Ukrainians all the Ukrainians are going to do is slowly withdraw while inflicting the most damage on the invading Russians. On top of this problem for Russia is their dependence of railways which can easily be incapacitated with Himars.

The only hope for Russia is to declare victory and get out of Ukraine.