GOP tempers expectations for Senate majority
by Julia Manchester - 08/09/22 5:01 AM ET
Republicans are looking to manage expectations when it comes to winning back the Senate majority in November as Democrats rack up key legislative wins and some GOP candidates stumble.
National Republican Senatorial Campaign (NRSC) Committee Chairman Rick Scott (R-Fla.) on Sunday acknowledged that it’s “going to be a hard year.”
“We have 21 Republicans up, only 14 Democrats,” he said on CBS’s “Face the Nation.” “The Democrats are outraising us, but we have good candidates. And I believe Joe Biden is going to be our key here.”
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell last week also sought to manage expectations.
“I think it’s going to be very tight. We have a 50-50 nation. And I think when this Senate race smoke clears, we’re likely to have a very, very close Senate still, with us up slightly or the Democrats up slightly,” McConnell said Wednesday evening on Fox’s “Special Report.”
While neither Republican leader is conceding the upper chamber — Scott, in the same interview, said he was “optimistic” — the tone stands in contrast to the confidence Republicans were expressing about the Senate earlier this year, as well as the near certainty felt within the GOP of retaking the House.
“There’s been a lot of curtain-measuring on the House sid,e and if Republicans take back the House but it’s by a small margin and they manage to hold onto the Senate even if it’s by one vote, that could cast how we view the election,” said veteran Republican strategist Doug Heye.
“We’ve seen the expectations game played a lot in Washington, and I think Scott is mindful of that, and depending on where expectations get set you could have a good night that’s defined as a bad night,” he added.
The comments come as Democratic hopes of gaining seats in the upper chamber are growing. Democrats just passed their climate, tax and health care bill, dubbed the Inflation Reduction Act, a major piece of President Biden’s agenda. That followed bipartisan passage of a measure to increase semiconductor manufacturing and competitiveness with China, as well as a bill to expand health care for veterans.
Additionally, the overwhelming rejection of an anti-abortion ballot measure in Kansas points to an electorate energized by the fall of Roe v. Wade.
And Republicans are grappling with a handful of controversial Senate candidates struggling in the polls in key swing states.
In Pennsylvania, Republican Senate nominee Mehmet Oz continues to trail Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D) in a number of polls, while Georgia GOP Senate nominee Herschel Walker has had to grapple with various scandalous headlines. Out west, meanwhile, Democrats have employed a strategy of hitting Arizona GOP Senate nominee Blake Masters and Nevada GOP Senate nominee Adam Laxalt over their views on the 2020 presidential election.
The election forecaster FiveThirtyEight currently has Democrats “slightly favored” to win the Senate. Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.), who leads the Democratic Senate campaign arm, said earlier this year that his goal is a 52-seat majority after the midterms.
But Republicans are still running in a national environment that appears to be tilted in their favor, given the state of the economy and the historical trend of a first term president’s party losing seats during their first midterm election cycle. And many within the GOP are pushing back on the idea that its prospects in the Senate are in real trouble.
“Joe Biden won Pennsylvania by a point and a half,” said one Republican using that state as an example. “You don’t think just the national ambience and environment has moved a couple of points against him?”
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https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3593305-gop-tempers-expectations-for-senate-majority/