Democrats Favored to Win Senate for First Time as Polling Improves: 538
By Jack Dutton On 7/27/22 at 8:05 AM EDT
For the first time, political polling website FiveThirtyEight shows the Democrats with an edge in the race for the U.S. Senate in November.
The website late on Tuesday showed the Democrats had a 52 percent chance of keeping the Senate majority, while the Republicans had a 48 chance.
There had been consensus for a long time that the Republicans will win back the Senate this fall, buoyed by high inflation and economic downturn under Democrat Joe Biden's presidency.
FiveThirtyEight believes that the Republicans have selected some "weak candidates" in some key races, meaning that they are less likely to take the upper chamber than previously predicted.
The website's Senate forecast has changed since it began polling in early June. Back then, the Democrats were only predicted to have a 40 percent chance to keeping the Senate, with the Republicans 60 percent chance of taking it. Since then, the Democrats have grown in popularity and now for the first time have overtaken the Republicans, and are on course to keep the Senate.
The Senate elections will be held on November 8, with 35 of the Senate seats being contested in regular elections, and the winners will serve six-year terms from January 3, 2023. Of the 35 seats, 21 are Republican-held and 14 are Democratic-held.
The Democrats currently have a wafer-thin majority in the Senate, with 48 seats, two independents, and a tie-breaking vote from Vice President Kamala Harris. The Republicans have 50 seats.
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https://www.newsweek.com/democrats-favored-win-senate-first-time-538-1728325?piano_t=1