Ranchers Are Selling Off Their Cattle in Unprecedented Numbers Due to the Drought, and That Has Enor

[IsailedawayfromFR]

Ranchers Are Selling Off Their Cattle in Unprecedented Numbers Due to the Drought, and That Has Enormous Implications for 2023
Thanks to the horrific drought which is absolutely devastating ranching in the Southwest, ranchers are now in “panic mode” and are selling off their cattle at an unprecedented rate.  In fact, some are choosing to sell off their entire herds because they feel like they don’t have any other options.  In recent days, seemingly endless lines of trailers waiting to drop off cattle for auction have gone viral all over social media.  Everybody is talking about how they have never seen anything like this before, and if the drought in the Southwest persists the lines could soon get even longer.  In the short-term, this is going to help to stabilize meat prices.  But in the long-term the size of the U.S. cattle herd will steadily become much smaller, and that has very serious implications for our ability to feed ourselves in 2023 and beyond.

North Texas has become the epicenter for this rapidly growing crisis.  Thanks to the drought, there simply is not enough grass and not enough water, and so many ranchers have been forced to make some really tough decisions…

North Texas ranchers are selling off cattle by the thousands as grass and water disappear during an expanding summer drought.

Videos spread on social media Saturday and Sunday, showing trucks and trailers lined up for miles outside of livestock markets.

At the Decatur Livestock Market, owner Kimberly Irwin said trucks were stacked a mile in each direction, eventually unloading more than 2,600 animals.

For many of these ranchers, it is imperative that they get something for their animals while they still can.

According to the USDA, the vast majority of the pasture and range land in the region is now in either “poor” or “very poor” condition…

Grass has stopped growing with no rain and 100 degree temperatures. Grasshoppers have reportedly been destroying what’s available in some counties. Stock ponds are now starting to run low on water as well.

The USDA released a report Monday showing 83% of pasture and range land is now considered to be in poor to very poor condition.

Normally, many cattle ranchers would feed hay to their cattle under such circumstances, but the price of hay has absolutely skyrocketed over the past year…

Prices for hay, which is widely used to feed cattle, were 56% higher in April than in 2021, according to a June report from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. Cattle producers are estimated to have lost money the past two months, according to a cost-and-return analysis from Iowa State University.

So now even if you can find hay for sale it is usually so expensive that it is simply not economical. Without any other options that make sense, some cattle ranchers in Texas have actually decided to go ahead and sell their entire herds…

Central Texas ranchers have little hay to feed their cows due to drought conditions. That means some ranchers are now selling their entire herds, including older ones who might not thrive in the drier and hot conditions.

“Some of these ranchers are just totally out of grass, totally out of water,” Uptmore said. “Their backs are against the wall and they don’t have any other option.”
https://americafirstreport.com/ranchers-are-selling-off-their-cattle-in-unprecedented-numbers-due-to-the-drought-and-that-has-enormous-implications-for-2023/

Better eat that steak this year as next year it will be pricey, if you can even get it.

[roamer_1]

Roughly speaking, this ought to be good in the short term. The price of beef should come way down as all this volume hits the market.

That may prove to cause a shortage in the long term - driving beef back up... But that is not necessarily so. Cattle country is vast, and up here in the north, we are having an excellent year - Here it is, almost august, and we are still verdant green. Excellent first cut... Second cut coming in right now. Water and rain have been and continue to be no problem.

So the stock is there to replenish the desert southwest. No doubt Texans will pay a premium as demand drives yearling prices up. And the delivery to market can be supplied - Perhaps not entirely, but significantly, by the Northwest.

Prices certainly could go up but they will go way down first, as all this beef gluts the market. And the eventual high price counts on shortage because the Southwest has liquidated...That shortage is limited because the Northwest can take up the slack, along with South American beef. That probably will not happen this fall - The west will look to sell rather than feed em through the winter, but the glut from the South will just be hitting the market... So the price will be  too low, and we have hay... So predictably they will winter, and next try to sell in the spring.

Spring will want the sell, as the glut will be over, the south will be buying to replenish, so what is wintered will bring a good price in the spring.

So watch the price and understand - Right now (next 90 days) the price of beef should plummet. The sell off in the desert south providing more than the market needs, lowering the price. That condition should remain through the next 90 days, well into or through the winter. Demand will go up in the spring, but may well be met by over-wintered beef from the northwest hitting the market.

So the price should be offset by high market value right now, dropping to a normal-to-low market value in the fall, causing a winter-over in the west, to provide volume in the spring, just as prices begin to climb. That feels like prices will drop soon, and stay moderate through the spring.

Next summer may see increase... Because wintered two-year cattle generally drive the market in the spring, but may well be sucked  up at good price to replenish the southwest, leading to fair demand.

But I will bet none of that will translate to the market. I bet prices will stay high, because liberals want beef to go away. I bet the price will be artificially elevated and beef will stay high regardless of the massive glut that is hitting the market.

[catfish1957]

Roughly speaking, this ought to be good in the short term. The price of beef should come way down as all this volume hits the market.

That may prove to cause a shortage in the long term - driving beef back up... But that is not necessarily so. Cattle country is vast, and up here in the north, we are having an excellent year - Here it is, almost august, and we are still verdant green. Excellent first cut... Second cut coming in right now. Water and rain have been and continue to be no problem.

So the stock is there to replenish the desert southwest. No doubt Texans will pay a premium as demand drives yearling prices up. And the delivery to market can be supplied - Perhaps not entirely, but significantly, by the Northwest.

Prices certainly could go up but they will go way down first, as all this beef gluts the market. And the eventual high price counts on shortage because the Southwest has liquidated...That shortage is limited because the Northwest can take up the slack, along with South American beef. That probably will not happen this fall - The west will look to sell rather than feed em through the winter, but the glut from the South will just be hitting the market... So the price will be  too low, and we have hay... So predictably they will winter, and next try to sell in the spring.

Spring will want the sell, as the glut will be over, the south will be buying to replenish, so what is wintered will bring a good price in the spring.

So watch the price and understand - Right now (next 90 days) the price of beef should plummet. The sell off in the desert south providing more than the market needs, lowering the price. That condition should remain through the next 90 days, well into or through the winter. Demand will go up in the spring, but may well be met by over-wintered beef from the northwest hitting the market.

So the price should be offset by high market value right now, dropping to a normal-to-low market value in the fall, causing a winter-over in the west, to provide volume in the spring, just as prices begin to climb. That feels like prices will drop soon, and stay moderate through the spring.

Next summer may see increase... Because wintered two-year cattle generally drive the market in the spring, but may well be sucked  up at good price to replenish the southwest, leading to fair demand.

But I will bet none of that will translate to the market. I bet prices will stay high, because liberals want beef to go away. I bet the price will be artificially elevated and beef will stay high regardless of the massive glut that is hitting the market.

This is almost a repeat of 10 years ago.  I remember in about '10(?) grass/hay shortages due to drought caused Tbone/Ribeye specials here to go down to $2-3 a pound.  Then about a year later the priced temporaily had about tripled. No doubt this is a cyclical business that has a heavy  reliance on weather. 

[IsailedawayfromFR]

This is almost a repeat of 10 years ago.  I remember in about '10(?) grass/hay shortages due to drought caused Tbone/Ribeye specials here to go down to $2-3 a pound.  Then about a year later the priced temporaily had about tripled. No doubt this is a cyclical business that has a heavy  reliance on weather.

That was 2011.

I had to sell a quarter of my stock and import hay from Alabama.

Tanks were almost completely dry and I was dependent upon well water.

The big difference now is the amount of beef exported, especially to Asia.  https://www.micausa.org/peel-record-beef-exports-in-2021/
As the Chinese continue gaining wealth, the demand for quality US beef rises, which will cause fewer price reductions at the grocery than what ranchers have to absorb at the auction barn.

[roamer_1]

This is almost a repeat of 10 years ago.  I remember in about '10(?) grass/hay shortages due to drought caused Tbone/Ribeye specials here to go down to $2-3 a pound.  Then about a year later the priced temporaily had about tripled. No doubt this is a cyclical business that has a heavy  reliance on weather.

Yeah. Though I look to burger rather than prime cuts...

Two wildcards...

The west will not be able to sell in the fall, because of the low price. So they will winter. They will almost have to. So they will pull the herd off the range to lower pastures close to home. Pastures, not feed lots. Too many to fit in the feed lots because they were not able to sell off. That sets up for one really bad downside... A wicked winter with heavy snow. If you can't keep it plowed out to those pastures, you can't get there to feed. A hard winter could spell a terrible loss.

The other is the spring... Texas is selling their breeders. They are not going to be content to replenish with yearlings. They are going to want heavy stock, at least in part, to replace those breeders and start building a breeding herd. That's going to put weight on those overwintered 2 year cows that normally would go to market.

I don't know which way that will break, because overwintered steers will be there for the meat market... But the rub will be on those overwintered mature cows-with calf.

[catfish1957]

That was 2011.

I had to sell a quarter of my stock and import hay from Alabama.

Tanks were almost completely dry and I was dependent upon well water.

The big difference now is the amount of beef exported, especially to Asia.  https://www.micausa.org/peel-record-beef-exports-in-2021/
As the Chinese continue gaining wealth, the demand for quality US beef rises, which will cause fewer price reductions at the grocery than what ranchers have to absorb at the auction barn.

Didn't know you were a rancher.  You have all my hopes and wishes that the drought breaks soon. I have told many I thought that the cow was the best tasting animal on earth.  Thanks to you and your hard working bretheren, we get to enjoy that steak on our tables.

 

[IsailedawayfromFR]

Didn't know you were a rancher.  You have all my hopes and wishes that the drought breaks soon. I have told many I thought that the cow was the best tasting animal on earth.  Thanks to you and your hard working bretheren, we get to enjoy that steak on our tables.

 

After retiring from the oil business, I decided to reduce my wealth by taking up breeding Angus. 

[IsailedawayfromFR]

Received yesterday's Auction report, and it ain't good.  Read the fine print at the bottom.  The number of sellers is typically less than 50 and there are 219 sellers now.

Am thankful I sold my calves in May.

https://easttexaslivestock.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/Market-Report-7-29-22-Jul-26-2022-10-47-PM.pdf

[IsailedawayfromFR]

And then we get idiocy like this

Canada’s Trudeau Declares War on Fertilizer, Following the Footsteps of Sri Lanka
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau ignored cries of anger and desperation from farmers and provincial officials last weekend by pressing ahead with a climate change agenda that will dramatically reduce Canada’s use of fertilizer — the same ruinous strategy that drove Dutch farmers into revolt and destroyed the agriculture of Sri Lanka.

The Toronto Sun reported on a dismaying Friday meeting of federal and provincial ministers, in which the latter could not convince the Trudeau administration to show any “flexibility” in its emissions targets, not even with a global food crisis on the horizon:
Sveral provincial governments, and organizations representing farmers have asked for emissions reductions from fertilizer to be measured via intensity – how much food is produced compared to the amount of fertilizer used. The Trudeau government is demanding an absolute reduction in emissions, which farmers say will result in less food being produced at a time when the world can ill afford it.

“The world is looking for Canada to increase production and be a solution to global food shortages. The Federal government needs to display that they understand this,” Alberta minister Nate Horner said.
https://www.breitbart.com/environment/2022/07/26/canadas-trudeau-declares-war-on-fertilizer-following-the-footsteps-of-sri-lanka/

This out-of-control little dictator is begging to become the next Nicolae Ceausescu

[catfish1957]

And then we get idiocy like this
This out-of-control little dictator is begging to become the next Nicolae Ceausescu

I lost any faith in the wimp rank and file Canadians when didn't stick with the Truckers, when they had Castro,Jr. on the ropes.

[IsailedawayfromFR]

I lost any faith in the wimp rank and file Canadians when didn't stick with the Truckers, when they had Castro,Jr. on the ropes.

It was the political class in Parliament that left Trudeau off the hook, not the people.

Ceausescu's fate was handled by the people, not the political class,when he had his demise.  As Canadians starve from lack of food while Justin thrives, Trudeau is going the same way.

[Fishrrman]

I sailed wrote:
"Ceausescu's fate was handled by the people, not the political class,when he had his demise.  As Canadians starve from lack of food while Justin thrives, Trudeau is going the same way."

I don't think the Canadian people "have the stuff" in 'em to do what the Romanians did to their dictator.
I wish they did.
But... they don't.

[Wingnut]

After retiring from the oil business, I decided to reduce my wealth by taking up breeding Angus. 

How do you make a Million dollars raising cattle.  Start with 2 Million dollars.

[IsailedawayfromFR]

How do you make a Million dollars raising cattle.  Start with 2 Million dollars.

[IsailedawayfromFR]

I sailed wrote:
"Ceausescu's fate was handled by the people, not the political class,when he had his demise.  As Canadians starve from lack of food while Justin thrives, Trudeau is going the same way."

I don't think the Canadian people "have the stuff" in 'em to do what the Romanians did to their dictator.
I wish they did.
But... they don't.

If assassination attempts could be made on Hitler by his own generals, it can certainly happen in Canada

[LMAO]

I sailed wrote:
"Ceausescu's fate was handled by the people, not the political class,when he had his demise.  As Canadians starve from lack of food while Justin thrives, Trudeau is going the same way."

I don't think the Canadian people "have the stuff" in 'em to do what the Romanians did to their dictator.
I wish they did.
But... they don't.

Watch what normally passive people do when they can’t get food and fuel