WSJ By Gerald F. Seib 7/15/2022
As their relations with the West deteriorate, Russia and China are seeking to rewire global power flows in ways that will work to their advantage for years to come.
In a recent appearance before a Kremlin-friendly financial conference, Russian leader Vladimir Putin was typically direct and self-assured. Not only is his economy surviving Western sanctions, he declared, but the U.S. and its allies are missing a significant shift in the international alignment revealed by the world’s reaction to his invasion of Ukraine.
“They do not seem to notice that new powerful centers have formed on the planet,” the Russian leader said. “We are talking about revolutionary changes in the entire system of international relations. These changes are fundamental and pivotal.”
In many ways, that proclamation captures a giant global bet at the heart of Mr. Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. He’s well aware that he’s lost a lot of ground, probably permanently, in traditional East-West relations because of the brutal Ukraine invasion. But he is gambling that he can make up for that by building a new diplomatic, economic and security network along a North-South axis.
His key ally in this enterprise is, of course, China, which has been working along this same North-South axis for years, showering trade and investment on Asia, Latin America and Africa, often in nations long seen as diplomatic backwaters. These nations aren’t big economic or diplomatic players, but many of them are rapidly growing markets positioned on strategic trade routes, and a number possess the critical minerals needed in the transformation to clean-energy technologies.
Taken together, these efforts amount to an attempt by Russia and China to rewire global power flows in ways that will work to their advantage—and to the West’s disadvantage—for years to come. Success in this effort is far from assured, but it could represent one of the most significant long-term results of the Ukraine crisis.
Mr. Putin has some reason to feel good about his plan so far. On the economic front, he is making significant oil sales to India and exploring potential natural-gas sales to Pakistan to start making up for lost Western markets. On the diplomatic front, 35 countries—representing almost 50% of the world population—abstained or voted no on a March United Nations resolution condemning the Ukraine invasion, while 58 nations, including Mexico, Egypt, Singapore, Indonesia and Qatar, abstained from a later vote to expel Russia from the UN’s Human Rights Council.
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https://www.wsj.com/articles/putin-and-xis-bet-on-the-global-south-11657897521?mod=djemalertNEWS
