Republicans aren’t guaranteed to sweep the midterms, but if they do, here’s what to expect
by Bill Schneider, opinion contributor - 07/10/22 12:30 PM ET
“A week is a long time in politics,” former British Prime Minister Harold Wilson once said. By that standard, four months is an eternity. Everything could change between now and Nov. 8. At least, Democrats better hope so. Because as things now stand, Democrats are likely to lose their slim majority in the House of Representatives. If that happens, President Biden’s agenda will be doomed.
One shock has already happened: the Supreme Court’s decision in the Dobbs case last month to overturnRoe v. Wade and thereby end the constitutionally protected status of abortion rights.
You can’t take away a right that Americans have had for 50 years without expecting a political backlash. Like what’s happening now. “It’s up to every single one of us to go out day after day after day until November,” Rep. Diana DeGette (D-Colo.) told protesters outside the Supreme Court.
What exactly can the voters do this November? They can elect more Democrats to the House and Senate, thereby making it more likely that Congress will give statutory protection to abortion rights. As long as the filibuster is in place, however, such a measure is likely to go nowhere in the Senate. The prospects for either party to gain a 60-vote (and thereby filibuster-proof) Senate majority seem remote. And Democrats may want the filibuster in place if they lose their single-vote majority in the Senate this year.
Donald Trump is eager to get press attention in order to defend himself from the damaging revelations coming out of the Jan. 6 committee hearings in Congress. Suppose Trump enters the 2024 presidential race before November. It would electrify the 2022 campaign, especially if the Justice Department initiates a criminal investigation of the former president. Democrats would have a powerful issue: “Look at what President Trump did to the Supreme Court. Imagine what he could do if he is re-elected with a Republican Congress!”
Some Democrats are supporting extremist Republicans in the GOP primaries — on the theory that they would be easy to defeat in November. Those Democrats are missing a crucial fact about political behavior. Democrats now control the White House and both houses of Congress. When voters vote for the opposition party, they are typically not making an ideological statement. They are voting for change.
If the demand for change becomes strong enough, many people will vote for the opposition party no matter who the candidate is. Once voters start saying “We can’t go on like this!” — inflation, gas prices, crime, immigration — even radical opposition candidates will look acceptable. Do Democrats really want to take that risk?
Suppose Republicans do enjoy a sweeping victory this year. Will it mean anything for the 2024 presidential race? Not necessarily.
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https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/3551419-republicans-arent-guaranteed-to-sweep-the-midterms-but-if-they-do-heres-what-to-expect/