Stocks fall on Thursday with the S&P 500 on track to close out worst first half in decades

[mystery-ak]

Stocks fall on Thursday with the S&P 500 on track to close out worst first half in decades
Published Wed, Jun 29 20226:03 PM EDTUpdated 3 Min Ago

Tanaya Macheel

Pippa Stevens

Stocks fell on Thursday, as the S&P 500 caps off its worst first half in more than 50 years.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 320 points, or 1%. The S&P 500 slid 1%, and the Nasdaq Composite pulled back by 1.3%.

Cruise stocks continued to drag and led the market lower, after Morgan Stanley cut its price target on Carnival roughly in half Wednesday and said it could potentially go to zero. Carnival shares were down 5% Thursday along with Royal Caribbean. Norwegian Cruise Line fell 6%.

Home retail stocks were down too. High-end furniture chain RH saw shares drop about 9% after it issued a profit warning for the full year. Wayfair and Williams-Sonoma followed lower by 5% and 3%, respectively.

“The combination of slowing growth, fading EPS prospects, and ongoing monetary tightening has been weighing on equity sentiment for months and is causing consternation again this morning,” wrote Adam Crisafulli of Vital Knowledge.

Thursday marked the final day of the second quarter. The Dow and S&P 500 are on track for their worst three-month period since the first quarter of 2020 when Covid lockdowns sent stocks tumbling. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite is down more than 20% over the last three months, its worst stretch since 2008.

The S&P 500 is also on track for its worst first half of the year since 1962, which has been dominated by myriad factors pressuring markets. Those include surging inflation, Federal Reserve rate hikes, Russia’s ongoing war on Ukraine and Covid-19 lockdowns in China – all of which have helped fuel fears of a coming global recession.

more
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/29/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html

[DefiantMassRINO]

Asset prices drop when the money supply is decrased by Fed tightening.

Watch out for inverted interest rates (short term rates higher than long term rates) on US Treasury Bonds.  This would be a canary in the coal mine for a liquidity crunch (think 2008).

[catfish1957]

One interesting phenomenon that I think needs close watching addtionally.  The vast majority of banks and credit unions are pretty much ignoring or tempering CD rates, even though the Fed has its foot on the accelerator.

As a rough rule of thumb, I have often told people that a decent Jumbo CD for 5 years should yield somewhere in the neighborhood of a 10 year U.S. Treasury.

I challenge anyone right now to find a CD for 3.006% 

And this is inherent to a danger of a credit spread crunch that might some serious damage shortly.  At some time, as these small banks and CU's capital base evaporates due to customer flight, covering the debt may lead to some bad situations for these folks.