The Biden Recession Has Arrived
I & I Editorial Board
June 16, 2022
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No doubt about it, the economic news in recent weeks has been relentlessly negative. Indicator after indicator shows activity plunging sharply in key parts of the economy. Now, a widely followed indicator signals economic growth is likely to be zero in the current quarter, after the first quarter’s “unexpected” 1.4% decline.
Buckle up, looks like we’re entering a recession, folks.
Let’s review just some of the economic carnage of recent days:
The Fed raised interest rates by 3/4 of a percentage point on Wednesday, the largest hike since 1994, as the central bank desperately tries to rein in our near-9% inflation rate.
Mortgage rates surged above 6%, the highest since 2008, a level that is likely to tank home sales and hit consumers’ pocketbooks hard as adjustable-rate mortgages move upward along with interest rates.
Producer prices soared at a 10.8% rate in May, an ominous sign of higher inflation for consumers down the road. That followed last week’s 8.6% yearly CPI number, the highest since 1981.
Retail sales fell 0.3% in May, but jumped 8.1% from a year earlier. A good sign? Hardly. Adjusted for CPI inflation, growth was minus 0.5%.
Small business optimism is its lowest ever, the National Federation of Independent Business said. This is key because small businesses are the No. 1 employer in America, usually first to hire in good times and first to fire in a slump.
“Meanwhile,” AP reports, “the national average price at the pump reached $5.01 per gallon on Tuesday, up from $4.45 a month ago, and surging more than 60% in one year.”
And before Wednesday, when the stock market rallied in relief that the Fed finally recognized the seriousness of the inflation problem, all of the post-Trump stock market gains had been erased.
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow indicator, a kind of running tab of GDP data, fell to zero on Wednesday. A rule of thumb says two or more quarters of zero or negative growth equals a recession. By that standard, the Biden recession is here.To sum it all up, “Between bad fiscal policy, bad monetary policy, and terrible energy policy, this is the witch’s brew that created this record-high inflation,” former Trump economic adviser Larry Kudlow told Fox Business’ Stuart Varney on Wednesday.
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https://issuesinsights.com/2022/06/16/bidens-recession-from-risk-to-real/
