Radio Free Europe By Vazha Tavberidze 5/26/2022
After decades of neutrality, Finland has now formally applied to join NATO. The decision now lies with the parliaments of NATO countries, which need to ratify Finland's application.
RFE/RL's Georgian Service spoke to Major General Pekka Toveri, the former intelligence chief of the Finnish General Staff, and Colonel Peterri Kajanmaa, director of the Department of Military Skills at the National Defense College, about Finland's changing security outlook, the potential stumbling blocks ahead, and why so-called "Finlandization" was never a good model for Ukraine.
The Path To NATORFE/RL: There might be possible stumbling blocks along the way to Finland's NATO accession. Turkey, Hungary, even the Croatian president, seem to be unwilling to commit. How do you intend to deal with that? Can the United States persuade them?
Pekka Toveri: The Croatian president, as I understand, has a special relationship with the Russians, but the Croatian government has a totally different view and the president is not the one who determines things. Turkey might be more interesting and challenging. There's been discussion between the Finnish political leadership and Turkey already beforehand about this thing. And I think what [Turkish President Recep Tayyip] Erdogan wants to do now is get some face time in this issue -- in what in Finland we call "night milking," meaning he wants to see what he can get out of this….
I don't think Hungary is such a big problem. You have to remember that the biggest NATO countries, barring the U.K., are also the biggest EU countries and Hungary is getting a lot of money from the EU. So I don't think that [Hungarian] President [Viktor] Orban is willing to risk that and gain the hatred of both NATO and the EU by [making] things difficult for Finland.
RFE/RL: The U.K. has said it would "provide support" if Finland and Sweden were attacked. What does the pact entail exactly? How much support are we talking about and in what manner?
Toveri: It's not a security guarantee. It's not a government-to-government agreement ratified by parliament. It's an assurance, meaning that if we would be attacked, [we could have] military support which would then be decided between Finland and the U.K. [U.K. Prime Minister Boris] Johnson would probably have to go to parliament and ask them to give him the powers to provide such support…. It would depend on the situation, what Russia would do, what's available, what's needed.
Finland's Changing SecurityRFE/RL: How would Finland's NATO membership change the security paradigm in the region, especially with regards to Russia?
Toveri: From Russia's point of view, it's a big [problem] because now the Baltic Sea will practically become a lake [belonging to] NATO. Russia has a couple of 100 kilometers of shoreline in the Baltic Sea, which is 98 percent surrounded by NATO countries. So Russia's ability to have any military operations there will be practically zero.
Peterri Kajanmaa: Finland has always had a good relationship with Russia. During the Cold War and ever since, we tried to create such a relationship [so] that we wouldn't have any arguments between each other. [But] that might change now, because of the Russian point of view [according to which] NATO is the enemy, or at least on the opposing side.
If Finland joins NATO, then we are on the enemy side, so to say. So, it will change the basic relationship. All those basic security policy instruments, which we had in Europe, [were] ruined at that moment when [Russian President Vladimir] Putin decided to launch his military operation [against Ukraine on February 24].
RFE/RL: Finnish President Sauli Niinisto said if the Russians aren't pleased, then they should look in the mirror. To what extent does President Vladimir Putin have himself to blame for this outcome?
Toveri: It's all his fault. For years, Russia has said Finland shouldn't join NATO, but it's Finland's decision, [and that has] been good enough for Finland…. But then in December [2021], when President Putin said that Finland can't join NATO and if Finland joins NATO there would be consequences, that was a direct threat, trying to force Finland's hand.
More:
https://www.rferl.org/a/finland-russia-nato-analysis/31869756.html
