Ukraine Endgame: Putin’s Bad OptionsNo matter which one he chooses, the Western response should be the same.
By JOHN NAGL and PAUL YINGLING
April 21, 2022
You must also have a sense of when to stop—Garry Kasparov, How Life Imitates ChessUkraine’s brilliant and tenacious resistance on land, as well as the sinking of the Moskva in the Black Sea, have checked Russia’s offensive in Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin would be wise to follow the advice of his countryman, chess grandmaster Garry Kasparov, and know when to stop. Instead, Putin appears intent on further escalation. In response to these events, Russia warned the United States to stop arming Ukraine, or face “unpredictable consequences.” Putin even went so far as to prescribe the weapons that the United States should not provide to the Ukrainian Army.
As Putin comes to terms with his looming defeat, he is now left with three bad, but not equally bad, options. The least bad Russian option is to sue for peace on the most favorable terms Ukraine will grant and end this pointless and reckless war. A worse option would be to go on the defensive in Eastern Ukraine and vainly hope for a more favorable correlation of forces in the future. The worst option of all would be for Russia to attempt another offensive, gambling the entire army in Ukraine on one last thrust with no hope of success. The West, in considering its responses to these actions, would do well to remember Napoleon’s advice (more or less): “Never interfere with an enemy in the process of destroying himself.”
Least Bad: Sue for PeaceRussia has not only lost the war in Ukraine, but is at risk of creating the very encirclement this war aimed to prevent. The United States and other NATO allies are pouring guns and money into Ukraine at breakneck speed. Ukraine is more fully integrated in the West than ever before. NATO is moving to strengthen its eastern flank, and many NATO members, most notably Germany, have committed to substantial increases in defense spending, Finland and Sweden are considering applying for NATO membership. Economic sanctions on Russia are not only holding, but growing: the European Union is considering banning Russian oil imports.
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Worse: Defend the Donbas and Hope for Better DaysIf Putin cannot end the war without losing his head, he might conclude that he can live to fight another day by going on the defensive in eastern Ukraine. Under this option, Putin would not seek any formal end to hostilities requiring Ukrainian assent. Instead, he would merely reposition his forces on defensible terrain in an attempt to hold the ground he already had before February. Putin might then adopt the maximalist aim of building sufficient combat power to resume offensive operations at some point in the future. Alternatively, he might adopt the more modest aim of transforming a ceasefire into yet another frozen conflict stuck in the netherworld between war and peace.
This strategy is doomed to failure because time is not on Putin’s side. ....
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Worst: One Last Gamble The most reckless option of all would be for Putin to attempt a final offensive to attempt to reverse the fortunes of this most unfortunate war. In this fever dream masquerading as a strategy, Putin would marshal his forces for a counterattack to cut Ukraine off from the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea. Such an offensive would require the final destruction of Mariupol, already well under way. Putin would hope to limit Western assistance to Ukraine through disinformation and nuclear bluster.
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The Western Response: We Can Do This All DayNo matter which option Putin chooses, the Western response should be the same: aid the Ukrainian military, relieve the suffering of the Ukrainian people, maintain the unity of the NATO alliance, and increase the military and economic costs of Russia’s continued aggression.
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Source:
https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2022/04/ukraine-endgame-putins-bad-options/365842/
