Can Computer Models Predict Climate

[rebewranger]

WRITTEN BY DR. CHRISTOPHER ESSEX ON APR 13, 2022. POSTED IN LATEST NEWS

Can Computer Models Predict Climate?

earth sunIt is well known that daytime winter temperatures on Earth can fall well below -4°F (-20℃ ) in some places, even in midlatitudes, despite warming worries. Sometimes the surface can even drop below -40°F (-40℃ ), which is comparable to the surface of Mars.

What is not so well known is that such cold winter days are colder than they would be with no atmosphere at all! [bold, links added]
 
How can that be if the atmosphere is like a blanket, according to the standard greenhouse analogy? If the greenhouse analogy fails, what is climate?

Climate computer models from the 1960s could not account for this non-greenhouse-like picture. However, modern computer models are better than those old models, but the climate implications of an atmosphere that cools as well as warms have not been embraced.

https://climatechangedispatch.com/can-computer-models-predict-climate/

[Kamaji]

“Model” is used in a peculiar manner in the climate field. In other fields, models are usually formulated so that they can be found false in the face of evidence. From fundamental physics (the Standard Model) to star formation, a model is meant to be put to the test, no matter how meritorious.

Climate models do not have this character. No observation from Nature can cause them to be replaced by some new form of a model.

Instead, climate models are seen by some as the implementation of perfectly established classical physics expressed on oracular computers, and as such must be regarded as fully understood and beyond falsification. In terms of normal science, this is fantasy.

Modern critics of climate models cite a famous remark of physicist Richard Feynman: “It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with the experiment, it’s wrong.”

Those critics imagine models as theory and observations as experiments. No knowledgeable model builder believes that climate models capture all features of the system well. As such, they disagree with observations.

Indeed.