The Memo: Democrats face nightmare scenario, ‘biblical disaster’
by Niall Stanage - 04/12/22 7:24 PM ET
Democrats are facing a nightmare scenario with about six months to go before the midterm elections.
Inflation, immigration, the war in Ukraine and the still-lingering COVID-19 pandemic make for a dreadful political atmosphere for President Biden’s party.
The problems are compounded by Biden’s weak approval numbers and the historical pattern whereby a president’s party typically loses seats in the first midterms of his tenure.
Some Democrats believe a turnaround is still possible, or at least that losses can be kept modest.
But others, granted anonymity to speak candidly, sound a louder alarm.
“I think this is going to be a biblical disaster,” said one such Democratic strategist, who did not wish to be named. “This is the reality we are in as Democrats and no one wants to face it.”
Democrats know the bitter taste of bad midterm results. The party fared dismally during the first midterm elections of President Clinton and President Obama. In 1994, with Clinton in the White House, Democrats lost a net 54 House seats. In 2010, under Obama, they lost 63 seats.
An increasingly gerrymandered Congress makes that kind of wipeout hard to see this year.
But around Washington, virtually no one expects Democrats to retain their slim House majority. One useful point of comparison is 1982, when inflation was rampant as it is now and Republicans lost a net 26 House seats with President Reagan in the White House.
The vulnerabilities for Biden’s party are clear and specific.
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https://thehill.com/news/administration/3265986-the-memo-democrats-face-nightmare-scenario-biblical-disaster/
