How big could the Red Tsunami in the House get this year?

[mystery-ak]

How big could the Red Tsunami in the House get this year?
John Sexton Apr 08, 2022 1:20 PM ET

Last week Cook Political Report posted an analysis of the House midterm election which said “Both sides see the possibility of a Red Tsunami in 2022.” But the rest of the Cook piece argued that because of redistricting changes 2022 can’t possibly equal a tsunami like the one in 1994 when Republicans won 54 seats. There are simply not as many competitive seats in the House as there used to be. So the author ultimately predicted a more modest wave:

Every metric we use to analyze the political environment — the president’s approval rating, the mood of the electorate, the enthusiasm gap — all point to huge gains for the GOP this fall. But, those metrics are bumping up against an increasingly ‘sorted’ House with few marginal seats and few incumbents sitting in the “wrong district.” As such, the more likely scenario for this fall is a GOP gain in the 15-25 seat range.

As I said at the time, 25 seats on top of the 13 the GOP picked up in the 2020 House elections is still going to be devastating to Democrats and to the Biden administration whose agenda will be dead in the water for the rest of his term. But is it possible things could get even worse for Dems?

Today, columnist Henry Olson at the Washington Post argues that the conventional wisdom of the Cook Political Report could be underestimating the GOP’s chances. He suggests a swing of as many as 40 seats is still possible:

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https://hotair.com/john-s-2/2022/04/08/how-big-could-the-red-tsunami-in-the-house-get-this-year-n461003

[Fishrrman]

Tsunami?
Better think this through again.

Particularly as a result of redistricting, the dem-communists are going to be able to cancel out at least some of the [so-called] "red wave".

Not saying the Pubbies won't win the House in November, but the margin of victory is going to be far smaller than hoped for.

[libertybele]

Tsunami?
Better think this through again.

Particularly as a result of redistricting, the dem-communists are going to be able to cancel out at least some of the [so-called] "red wave".

Not saying the Pubbies won't win the House in November, but the margin of victory is going to be far smaller than hoped for.

I agree with you IF indeed the GOP is victorious in taking the House it is going to be by a very thin margin. I think that the DEMS will grow their majority in the Senate.

[EdinVA]

I have every confidence that the GOP will find a way to screw it up so not holding my breath

[libertybele]

I have every confidence that the GOP will find a way to screw it up so not holding my breath

That's been their past track record for quite some time.

[Free Vulcan]

Always run like you're 20 points behind.

[libertybele]

Always run like you're 20 points behind.

That should be the rule of thumb, which brings me back to the question of; what has the GOP/RNC done to prepare for the midterms??? 

[EdinVA]

That should be the rule of thumb, which brings me back to the question of; what has the GOP/RNC done to prepare for the midterms???

They have a whole host of committees they will set up to spend 4 years justifying the abdication of their duties...

[Smokin Joe]

Tsunami?
Better think this through again.

Particularly as a result of redistricting, the dem-communists are going to be able to cancel out at least some of the [so-called] "red wave".

Not saying the Pubbies won't win the House in November, but the margin of victory is going to be far smaller than hoped for.

ImHO, the redistricting was done with the facilitation of vote fraud in mind.
What still matters most is a fair and honest election.
Barring the necessary change to make that happen, nothing will change enough to make a difference. Defections on votes will keep going on, and bid'ness as usual will happen in the swamp.

[sneakypete]

I have every confidence that the GOP will find a way to screw it up .....

@EdinVA

It's what they do best. It's almost like they thrive on public humiliation.

[LMAO]

I agree with you IF indeed the GOP is victorious in taking the House it is going to be by a very thin margin. I think that the DEMS will grow their majority in the Senate.

Wrong on both

Biden is polling worse than Clinton and BHO the year of their midterms

[LMAO]

Republicans are gonna do very well in the House this year and possibly take the Senate. But watch some of the local races. I predict some very pleasant surprises

We had a local school board election this year were the 20 year Democrat on the school board got voted out and replaced by two new Republican leaning school board members. I live in an area were you’d be hard-pressed to find a Republican

What’s the Democrats got in 2021 was just a appetizer for what’s coming this year. And, if after the midterms the Biden administration continues on its same path and learns nothing, conservatives are going to have one of their best opportunities in decades laid before them

We have to quit acting as if we’re dealing with people that are unstoppable and are loved by the American people. The facts prove otherwise. And we have to stop looking at these people as if they’re shrewd. Has anybody heard the president and his cackling VP speak? How about the idiot speaker of the house? Always run like you’re 20 points behind, of course. But we’re not dealing with the cream of the crop. All their ideas and plans are falling apart

I also predict that a majority of Trump endorsed candidates this year will win. I also predict massive Democrat Party  in fighting after the midterms

[Smokin Joe]

It all depends on who is counting the votes.

[Kamaji]

It all depends on who is counting the votes.