April 6, 2022
The numbers indicate a coming recession
By Michael Busler
The Bureau of Labor Statistics just released its jobs report for March. It said total employment increased by 431,000. That means that for the first quarter of this year, about 1.6 million jobs were added. Although most economists are forecasting economic growth to be less than a 3% rate for the quarter, that may be a conservative estimate. In fact, the economy may be overheated.
While there are a number of other statistics that point to slow growth for the current quarter, it is difficult to image that the economy is experiencing slow growth while adding more than half a million jobs per month. The growth estimate for the first quarter will be released at the end of April. It may surprise the forecasters and show that economic growth is at least 4%.
The inflation number for last month will be released on April 12. All indications point to a monthly increase in the Consumer Price Index of a full 1%. That will increase the inflation rate for the last 12 months to well over 8%. Further, it is likely that the CPI for April, which will be released in mid-May, will also be 1%.
That will raise the 12-month inflation rate to at least 9%. It will also mark the first time since 1980 that the CPI has increased by at least 1% for two consecutive months. If that is the case, the economy is clearly overheated, meaning that the Federal Reserve must be more aggressive in changing its shockingly irresponsible monetary policy.
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https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2022/04/the_numbers_indicate_a_coming_recession.html
