Clausewitz, Russia, and Ukraine

[Kamaji]

Clausewitz, Russia, and Ukraine

The Russians may have learned again what history teaches: that those who plan to win a short war often end up losing a long one.

By Mackubin Owens
April 5, 2022

What can we learn about Putin’s invasion of Ukraine from a long-dead German who wrote during the time of the Napoleonic Wars? A great deal, it turns out.

Carl von Clausewitz, the Prussian “philosopher of war,” had much to say about the timeless nature of war. He contended that although the character of various wars may differ, the fundamental nature of war remains constant: a violent clash of opposing wills, with each side seeking to prevail over the other. Despite the claims of Clausewitz’s detractors, technology has not negated his insights. For confirmation, we need look no further than the Russo-Ukrainian conflict.

While Clausewitz’s most famous aphorism is that “war is the continuation of policy by other means,” perhaps the observation most applicable to Putin’s decision to “roll the iron dice” against Ukraine is this from On War: “the first, the supreme, the most far-reaching act of judgment that the statesman and commander have to make is to establish . . . the kind of war on which they are embarking; neither mistaking it for, nor trying to turn it into, something that is alien to its nature. This is the first of all strategic questions and the most comprehensive.”

As the war drags on, it seems clear that Putin has failed on that count. He apparently envisioned a short war, characterized by a coup de main, the rapid seizure of Kyiv and the replacement of the Zelenskyy government with a Kremlin puppet. This was the model that the Soviets executed during the invasion of Afghanistan in 1978. For a number of reasons, also identified by Clausewitz, the current effort failed.

As Clausewitz taught, war is not linear. It is not a predictable phenomenon occurring in a deterministic, mechanistic world. Rather, war is a highly complex interactive system characterized by chance, “friction,” unpredictability, disorder, and fluidity. As such, it cannot be subjected to precise, positive control or synchronized, centralized schemes.

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Source:  https://amgreatness.com/2022/04/05/clausewitz-russia-and-ukraine/

[DefiantMassRINO]

The Russians haven't lost yet.  They are a persistent, perseverant people.

The West is still allowing Russia to sell oil and natural gas.
The West has held back the Polish MiGs from the Ukranians.

The Russians don't need to win to be victorious.  As long as Ukraine is not allowed to have sufficient offensive military capabilities to dislodge the Russians, they can wait it out.

The Russians are victorious if:

- Ukraine is not allowed to request admission to NATO
- Ukraine is not allowed to request admissiion to EU
- Ukraine is not a peacful, productive, prosperous independent sovereign nation that can decide its future without foreign interference

Over time, the West's attention, resolve, and support will wane.  Meanwhile, educated professionals will emigrate out of Ukraine, leaving behind less educated people who are less inclined to allign Ukraine's future with the West.

Russia just needs to wait it out - for Ukraine to languish in instability and poverty - for pro-Western educated professionals to leave.

Russia's victory is that Ukraine is stripped of its self-determination.

[Kamaji]

The Russians haven't lost yet.  They are a persistent, perseverant people.

The West is still allowing Russia to sell oil and natural gas.
The West has held back the Polish MiGs from the Ukranians.

The Russians don't need to win to be victorious.  As long as Ukraine is not allowed to have sufficient offensive military capabilities to dislodge the Russians, they can wait it out.

The Russians are victorious if:

- Ukraine is not admitted to NATO
- Ukraine is not admitted to EU
- Ukraine is not a peacful, productive, prosperous independent nation

Over time, the West's attention, resolve, and support will wane.  Meanwhile, educated professionals will emigrate out of Ukraine, leaving behind less educated people who are less inclined to allign Ukraine's future with the West.

Russia just needs to wait it out - for Ukraine to languish in instability and poverty - for pro-Western educated professionals to leave.

Russia's victory is that Ukraine is stripped of its self-determination.

I would not make admission to NATO the litmus test for Ukrainian victory.

[DefiantMassRINO]

The litmus test is if Ukraine can decide for itself to request to join or to not join NATO.

If other nations make the choice for them, they are a less sovereign nation.

Putin does not want a FREE and INDEPENDENT Ukraine.  It doesn't matter to whom Ukraine is indentured, so, long as it cannot make decisions for itself.

Think of Ukraine as the little brother that bigger brother, Russia, likes to bully and keep in its place.  As long as Ukraine fears Russia, Putin will have the upper hand.

[Kamaji]

The litmus test is if Ukraine can decide for itself to request to join or to not join NATO.

If other nations make the choice for them, they are a less sovereign nation.

Putin does not want a FREE and INDEPENDENT Ukraine.  It doesn't matter to whom Ukraine is indentured, so, long as it cannot make decisions for itself.

Think of Ukraine as the little brother that bigger brother, Russia, likes to bully and keep in its place.  As long as Ukraine fears Russia, Putin will have the upper hand.

Ukraine is not in a position where NATO membership is feasible.  They have already aknowledged as much.  Bowing to a certain degree of reality is not the same thing as losing.

Russia wins only if they get to control significant additional Ukrainian territory, or get to demilitarize Ukraine, or get a say in Ukraine's internal leadership.  They don't win if the agreements that were made post 1989 are adhered to and Ukraine is kept out of NATO.

[Fishrrman]

Russia isn't going to "lose" this war.
It will eventually secure the territory it seeks.
Not by "victory", but by treaty, truce, or agreement.

However, that territory, and the truce that establishes it, will come at a far greater cost to Russia (and to Vlad Putin) than was anticipated. And the repercussions will negatively impact the country for years.