American Military News by Jonathan Tirone and Daniel Flatley Bloomberg News March 27, 2022
Russia’s war on Ukraine is reshuffling Middle East diplomacy and forcing the U.S. to reassess the political costs of reviving the 2015 nuclear accord with Iran.
Clinching the deal after a year of negotiations now hangs on a sticking point that people familiar with the talks say has emerged as the most politically explosive for the Biden administration — whether to remove Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps from the U.S. list of terrorist organizations.
The designation isn’t directly linked to the original pact, which curbed Tehran’s atomic activity in return for sanctions relief, but Iran’s insisted all along that it be scrapped.
The issue’s galvanized U.S. lawmakers in an election year and united erstwhile Middle East foes in an unprecedented bid to nix a pact they fear will hand Iran an oil windfall. They include Gulf Arab nations that face regular attack from Iran-backed groups and have rebuffed requests to top up stricken oil markets unless their security needs are met.
UAE, Israel pressure U.S. for Iran security guarantees
The stakes are higher for President Joe Biden than they’ve been since he came to office in January 2021. Iran now has stockpiles of highly-enriched uranium, sanctions have failed to halt its progress and no deal means potentially living with the risk it could develop nuclear weapons and set off a regional arms race.
Lifting the IRGC’s terror designation, however, would alienate Gulf Arab leaders just as Biden works to rally allies against Moscow and curb soaring gasoline prices. It also risks upending a decades-old alliance that extended U.S. influence in a strategic region that exports more energy than any other and straddles three shipping choke points.
High stakes
Two weeks after talks to revive the agreement were suspended, diplomats say it’s not clear when negotiators might return to Vienna. Russia’s decision to drop its 11th hour condition to a deal and the release last week of two British-Iranians detained for years by Tehran have yet to imbue new momentum.
Reflecting the souring mood as Ukraine redraws the political landscape, U.S. senators emerged discouraged from a classified briefing on the talks Tuesday.
More:
https://americanmilitarynews.com/2022/03/russias-war-has-changed-the-iran-nuclear-deal-calculus/
